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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 3, 2015

While I remain skeptical about a Biden candidacy, barring Hillary Clinton's situation worsens greatly in the coming weeks, his former Chief of Staff and Senate successor Ted Kaufman posted a link on Facebook yesterday pointing to this Huffington Post article on the high rate of Vice Presidents becoming presidential nominees and presidents. Kaufman doesn't tip his hand about whether Biden will...

Minnesota House |By David Wasserman, September 3, 2015

Today, GOP Rep. John Kline (MN-02) announced that he would retire after seven terms in 2016. Kline's military background and chairmanship of the House Education and the Workforce Committee helped him thrive politically in a swing district south of the Twin Cities, and he even won comfortably in the 2006 and 2008 Democratic waves. But without Kline on the ballot, Minnesota's 2nd CD will become...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, August 28, 2015

House Republicans are hurtling towards the fall with lots of concerns: how to reconcile a deadline to fund the government with conservatives' demands to defund Planned Parenthood, navigating highway funding, and the need to raise the debt limit. However, losing lots of seats or the majority next year isn't one of them.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, August 28, 2015

Kirkpatrick's decision to run for Senate makes this northern Arizona seat one of Republicans' best pickup opportunities. But Democrats are optimistic that their latest entry, former state Sen. Tom O'Halleran, has the unique nonpartisan profile it will take to win this Romney-won seat. O'Halleran, a former Republican, narrowly lost a race for state senate as an independent in 2014.

North Dakota Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, August 28, 2015

This is an analysis of a Senate race that doesn’t yet exist and may never happen. If it comes to be, though, it could have a real impact on what the Senate looks like in 2017.

North Dakota Governor |By Jennifer Duffy, August 28, 2015

Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple announced Monday that he would not seek a second full term in 2016. Speculation on his replacement has focused less on Republicans and more on one Democrat, U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. Heitkamp might be the only Democrat in the state who can make the open gubernatorial contest competitive.

POLITICAL ADVERTISING|By Elizabeth Wilner, August 27, 2015

One lesson mislearned by non-practitioners-journalists and layfolk-from the post-2012 crash course in Big Data and new technologies is that "digital" and "data" are interchangeable when in fact they're really not the same.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, August 26, 2015

Like a blockbuster movie, Donald Trump has dominated the summer. But, plenty of other candidates have been on the move too; some went up while others saw their fortunes dip. As we countdown to Labor Day and the traditional “end of the summer,” here’s a quick look at how the Trump summer has shaken out the field.

Virginia House|By David Wasserman, August 21, 2015

House Democrats privately admit they don't have much hope of gaining the House back in 2016, but they are eager to engage strategists and donors in the long game: challenge GOP-drawn maps in court, plot to win back governorships in 2018, and raise money for state legislative races in 2020 that will be critical for the next round of map-drawing in 2020. For now, it's all about "chipping away,"...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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Charlie Cook's Column

How Fake News Undermines Democracy

January 17, 2017

Al­most 130 years ago, Ger­man philo­soph­er Friedrich Ni­et­z­sche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a per­verse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made Pres­id­ent-elect Trump stronger this week.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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