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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 2, 2015

A few weeks be­fore the 2010 elec­tion, I ran in­to then-House Minor­ity Lead­er John Boehner at a re­cep­tion. Pres­id­ent Obama’s ap­prov­al rat­ings were tank­ing, the Af­ford­able Care Act that had passed earli­er in the year was ex­ceed­ingly un­pop­u­lar, and, un­sur­pris­ingly, Demo­crats were in a free fall. Boehner saw me, walked over, leaned in, and said quietly, “We’re go­ing to win...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, September 30, 2015

By now, everyone has an opinion on who “won” and “lost” 1) the summer; 2) the last debate and 3) the momentum to win the party nomination. What’s more important is to see how actual voters see this race. The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll – the gold standard of public opinion polling IMHO – is out with its latest survey which both upends and justifies the current inside-the-Beltway...

National Politics|By Michael Nelson, September 28, 2015

If all goes according to the Commission on Presidential Debates’ plan, three of the four general election debates next year will be in battleground states and all four will be on college campuses.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 25, 2015

In the wake of Speaker John Boehner’s resignation from Congress as well as national polls and other developments, it is hard to say which party should be more afraid ---Republicans whose party seems bent on committing self-immolation on both the Presidential and Congressional levels, or Democrats who early on pretty much settled on a presidential nominee now hopelessly mired in the State...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 25, 2015

One or even two opinion polls don’t constitute a trend, and it’s fool hardy to put too much emphasis on such a small sampling. But the first live-telephone interview survey released after last week’s Republican presidential debate, the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll conducted September 17-19, will get and deserves a lot of attention. It gives Republican leaders and strategists, at least...

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, September 24, 2015

Amidst all the exaggerations and oversimplifications of early 2016 TV advertising, some sincere flattery is in the air. This week saw the launch of knock-offs of two of the most famous political ads of all time.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, September 23, 2015

What did we learn from Scott Walker’s very brief foray into presidential politics? And, what does the race for the nomination look like now that he’s gone?

Political Books|By Michael Nelson, September 22, 2015

Michael D’Antonio is a serious journalist who has written a serious biography of Donald Trump. If you have the time and interest to read his new 400 page book - "Never Enough: Donald Trump and the Pursuit of Success" which is out today - I recommend it. It’s balanced, well-written, and full of insights like this one: “No one in the world of business - not Bill Gates, Steve Jobs or Warren...

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, September 22, 2015

Pope Francis may be just about to arrive in the US, but he has been a presence on the presidential campaign trail on and off since late June.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

The Cook Political Report is...

  • A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans

February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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