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Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, April 14, 2017

Our most up-to-date take on 2018's Senate races

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 13, 2017

Wichita is 1,250 miles from Wash­ing­ton, D.C., but you can bet quite a few people in­side the Belt­way will be check­ing elec­tion re­turns from there Tues­day night.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 11, 2017

For those of us who revere Con­gress and, in my case, par­tic­u­larly the Sen­ate, hav­ing first worked there as an in­tern 44 years ago, these are sad times. Par­tis­an­ship is strangling what was long a func­tion­ing and ef­fect­ive in­sti­tu­tion, whose slow pace was in keep­ing with its claim to be the world’s greatest de­lib­er­at­ive body. Re­pub­lic­ans ac­ted shame­fully last year by...

House Overview |By David Wasserman, April 10, 2017

In the final hours of the special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo in Wichita, Kansas, Republicans are expressing alarm that Democrat James Thompson is within striking distance of carrying a seat President Trump won by 27 points last November. Although GOP state Treasurer Ron Estes remains the favorite heading into Election Day, we are shifting our rating from Likely Republican...

PARTISAN VOTER INDEX|By The Cook Political Report , April 7, 2017

Master PVI List

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 7, 2017

If you could be a fly on the wall eaves­drop­ping on a meet­ing these days, only one would be more in­ter­est­ing than the brain­storm­ing ses­sions that Sen­ate Ma­jor­ity Lead­er Mitch Mc­Con­nell and House Speak­er Paul Ry­an are hav­ing with their re­spect­ive lead­er­ship teams. It would be the meet­ing at which White House Chief of Staff Re­ince Priebus and his le­gis­lat­ive-af­fairs...

Kansas House|By David Wasserman, April 6, 2017

In a sign of the times, there's mounting GOP concern in an unlikely place: Wichita, Kansas. With four days to go until the April 11 special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo, the NRCC has gone up with a last-minute ad buy to shore up GOP State Treasurer Ron Estes's standing. In February, Democratic nominee and civil rights attorney James Thompson's own campaign poll showed him...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, April 5, 2017

If schadenfreude made a sound, D.C. would be reverberating with it. Democrats and #NeverTrump-ers are gleefully gloating as the Trump administration stumbles and fumbles its way through its first 100 days. With his party unable to coalesce around the “easy” stuff like an Obamacare repeal/replace plan, the White House is reaching out to moderate Democrats in an effort to boost their chances of...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 4, 2017

Soon after Don­ald Trump was elec­ted pres­id­ent it be­came strik­ingly clear that these would be no or­din­ary times, to bor­row the title from Dor­is Kearns Good­win’s book about Frank­lin and Elean­or Roosevelt dur­ing World War II. Any com­par­is­on with the Roosevelts ends there, but the con­clu­sion that there would be no nor­mal days is even more true now than it ap­peared four months...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under Trump

June 23, 2017

For con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans in the new norm of the Trump pres­id­ency, noth­ing is easy, and everything is hard. Rais­ing the debt ceil­ing in or­der to keep the gov­ern­ment from de­fault­ing on its debt is nor­mally easy; now it is hard. Passing an om­ni­bus budget bill to simply keep the gov­ern­ment op­er­at­ing (for­get the idea of passing the full bat­tery of 12 ap­pro­pri­ations...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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