In many ways President-elect Trump is exactly the guy he was when he was candidate Trump. He remains obsessed with real or perceived slights — using twitter to lash out at those who he dissed or dismissed him. He is infatuated with how the press covers him and yet has set the record in modern era for days he’s gone without holding a post election press conference.
At least half of Washington and plenty of people beyond the Beltway are taking a crash course in Donald Trump, trying to better understand the most unconventional President-elect this country has ever seen. One of the more interesting insights I’ve come across was in a Sept. 23 article for The Atlantic by Salena Zito, who observed that “the press takes him [Trump] literally, but not seriously,...
Before assigning blame for why Hillary Clinton lost a race that she was supposed to win, it seems appropriate to first give credit to the victor. Whether you like or agree with President-elect Donald Trump, you have to give him credit for seeing and tapping into something that few others saw. From his gilded 58th floor, three-story apartment in Trump Tower overlooking...
If there is a contradiction in Tuesday’s presidential-election results, it’s that Americans desperately wanted change even as they felt things seemed to be changing too fast. Donald Trump didn’t get elected because voters saw him as a safe choice. When exit polls asked whether they felt Trump and Hillary Clinton were qualified to be president, 52 percent said Clinton was and 47 percent said she...
The media has paid a lot of attention throughout the campaign and afterward on rural and working-class white America. Not nearly as much attention has been spent on suburban America, whose college-educated white voters (especially white women) were supposed to provide Hillary Clinton a bulwark to big losses among the white working class. Instead, these voters abandoned Clinton too. Mitt Romney...
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 8, 2016
The 2018 election cycle has started and Republicans find themselves in an interesting place. On the one hand, the tables are turned as they will get to play offense. There are 33 races in 2018 and Democrats will defend 25 of those seats while Republicans will defend just eight of them.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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