The 2014 GOP wave stopped short of the West Coast. But if that's not disappointing enough for Golden State Republicans, they could be in an even bigger hole if the Supreme Court invalidates the work of citizen-led redistricting commissions in a ruling on a case originating in Arizona. The decision is expected within a month, and Sacramento Democrats are already chomping at the bit to add even...
Several developments over the past week in the presidential race seem worthy of note. Hillary Clinton is coming under increasing fire from journalists and opponents for not answering many questions from the media, while former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio probably are regretting answering any at all.
I went to Iowa last weekend to check out the GOP field. Yes, it’s still very early in the process. And, yes one dinner featuring eleven potential candidates and 1,200 or so GOP voters can’t tell you who’s going to win in February. Even so, I find these events – bracketed by smaller meet-and-greets between candidates and voters - to be a useful exercise. You can’t predict how a race will end,...
The field for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is as flat as any in modern memory—pretty remarkable for a party that usually has a fight but almost invariably ends up nominating whoever's turn it is. While nomination trial-heat polling tells us very little this early, there are some poll questions that are better measurements of at least where these candidates are starting out,...
The 2014 GOP wave stopped short of the West Coast. But if that's not disappointing enough for Golden State Republicans, they could be in an even bigger hole if the Supreme Court invalidates the work of citizen-led redistricting commissions in a ruling on a case originating in Arizona. The decision is expected within a month, and Sacramento Democrats are already designing plans to add even more...
Indiana: Republicans are currently favored to hold on to this seat being vacated by Sen. Dan Coats at the end of this Congress. Eric Holcomb, Coats’ former chief of staff and a former state party chair, was the first to announce his candidacy and has Coats’ endorsement. U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman recently announced that he would also seek the GOP nod. Several other candidates are actively...
Tuesday's 13-candidate, nonpartisan special election to replace the late GOP Rep. Alan Nunnelee couldn't have gone better for Republican Trent Kelly, a regional prosecutor and Iraq veteran. Kelly earned one of the two June 2 runoff slots with just 16 percent of the vote. But even better, the other slot went to Democrat Walter Zinn, a former aide to the mayor of Jackson who raised just $11,500...
The battle for control of the Senate is finally underway and if early indications are correct, Republicans can be no more confident that they will keep the majority in the next Congress than Democrats could have been at this point in 2013.
Former Democratic U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold announced this morning that he will try to win back the seat he lost in 2010 to then-political newcomer Ron Johnson. Johnson has proven himself to be a staunch conservative, which may well cause him problems in a presidential election year where the composition of the electorate won't be as friendly to Republicans as it was in the 2010 midterm...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
GOP Faces Trump Effect in 2018February 17, 2017
Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents upset over the proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act or President Trump’s immigration enforcement or both. Some of these highly unpleasant scenes don’t look too different from what congressional Democrats encountered back in 2009 and 2013, rocky years that preceded...Read more »
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