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Governors Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, June 19, 2015

North Dakota: Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple spent a decade as Lieutenant Governor before ascending to the Governor’s office in December of 2010 when then-Gov. John Hoeven resigned after being elected to the Senate. Dalrymple won a full term in his own right in 2012 with 63 percent of the vote. The only Democrat in the state who poses a real threat to the incumbent in 2016 is Democratic Sen....

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 19, 2015

In recent weeks, many have started treating Sen. Bernie Sanders' campaign for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination seriously, but without addressing or even acknowledging the elephant in the room—Sanders' age.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, June 17, 2015

With his attempts to woo Democrats unsuccessful, President Obama turned to Republicans this week to help rescue his Asia trade hopes. Obama has succeeded in the first step, with the House voting to support Trade Promotion Authority for the President by a vote of 218 to 208. Just 28 Democrats supported the president.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 16, 2015

The Republican practice for determining a presidential nominee has long been to have a fight, then nominate whoever's turn it is to be the party's standard-bearer. It has been a relatively orderly, hierarchical process. And if Republicans behave accordingly next year, they will slug it out before nominating former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose turn it would seem to be.

Virginia House|By David Wasserman, June 12, 2015

Last Friday, a three-judge federal panel reaffirmed an October ruling striking down Virginia's congressional map on the grounds that the African-American 3rd District amounts to an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The news is a potentially significant victory for Democrats, who are at an historic low-point in the House in part because GOP legislatures in the South have packed

Governors Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, June 12, 2015

Delaware: This race is in something of a holding pattern in the wake of former Democratic state Attorney General Beau Biden’s death in late May. Biden was an overwhelming frontrunner both for the Democratic nomination and in the general election to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Jack Markell. Other Democrats interested in the race are staying on the sidelines for now as Biden’s family...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 11, 2015

Hillary Clinton announced her presidential candidacy roughly eight weeks ago, and since then, a few things have become apparent.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, June 11, 2015

What makes Scott Walker such a formidable candidate in the primary is also what makes him vulnerable in a general election. As Walker flexes his conservative muscles on everything from immigration to gay marriage to abortion, he also risks being easily portrayed as 'out of touch' to the moderate voters needed to win this fall.

POLITICAL ADVERTISING|By Elizabeth Wilner, June 9, 2015

Here-today-gone-today social media app Snapchat just saw its first-ever political ad covered by the New York Times.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Republicans Weigh Their RyanCare Votes

March 23, 2017

More than a few House Re­pub­lic­ans are likely to be tak­ing deep breaths as they board the sub­way from the Long­worth or Ray­burn House Of­fice Build­ings to the Cap­it­ol on Thursday to vote on the Amer­ic­an Health Care Act. They know that they will be cast­ing a fate­ful vote on a bill that no one really likes and, giv­en the lack of af­fec­tion for it in the Sen­ate, one that is...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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