Jump to Any Race
National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 1, 2015

Last week, this column noted the avoidance of drama this past fall, when another government shutdown could have occurred, and the fact that in recent weeks, Congress eliminated the much reviled Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate (aka the "doc fix")—something that has eluded Congress repeatedly over the past decade—and extended the Children's Health Insurance Program. Both chambers approved budget...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 28, 2015

It's hard to argue that the Affordable Care Act of 2010 did not have a profound impact on the two most recent midterm elections. The legislation helped spawn the tea-party movement and give the Republican Party momentum, enabling the GOP to win majorities in the House in 2010 and in the Senate last year. Now, with the U.S. Supreme Court scheduled to rule on the constitutionality of a key...

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, April 28, 2015

In the 2004 presidential race, as George W. Bush and John Kerry went at it over national security, CMAG tracked significant general election ad activity in 19 states. The first presidential contest since 2004 to focus significantly on global threats to the United States is likely to be decided by slivers of voters in just eight.

Senate FEC Report|April 24, 2015

Senate FEC reports for the first quarter of the 2016 election cycle are now available. Web Editor Ally Flinn has compiled the chart below that provides the cash-on-hand totals for incumbents, as well as selected U.S. House Members who have announced or who have been mentioned as potential Senate candidates.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, April 24, 2015

It's time to face it: congressional elections have moved into an era when there are more competitive primaries than general elections. Nowhere has this been on display more than in open seats, which used to be reliable generators of takeover opportunities. But in the last several cycles, the vast majority of these seats have been signed, sealed, and delivered well in advance of November.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 24, 2015

The term "green shoots" is increasingly being used to describe the first positive signs of growth after an economic downturn. It is now possible to say that we are seeing green shoots on Capitol Hill, signs that the institution of Congress may be becoming a bit less dysfunctional than it has been in recent years.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, April 22, 2015

Almost every hour, it seems, someone is either announcing for President or announcing they are thinking about running for President. There are dozens of stories a day about new hires at SuperPAC's, "Scooby Van" road trips, horse race polls in battleground states, and GOP cattle calls in New Hampshire and Iowa. So much is happening in the race for the White House. And, yet nothing is happening...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 21, 2015

One of the more interesting changes in U.S. politics in recent years has been the increasingly parliamentary nature of voting behavior. Fewer people are straying beyond their party affiliations, we are seeing more straight-ticket voting, and the characteristics of individual candidates mean less than ever. Entering this 2016 presidential cycle, the phenomenon presents a real challenge to...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, April 17, 2015

How successful will Democrats be in convincing potential recruits that a ballot led by Hillary Clinton in 2016 presents their best opportunity for a promotion? Given their historic low point and difficult map, can Democrats compete in seats that gave President Obama between 45 and 50 percent of the vote?

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the Team

January 20, 2017

The gen­er­al para­met­ers are already well known. In Novem­ber, Amer­ic­ans elec­ted a pres­id­ent who had no gov­ern­ment ex­per­i­ence of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy is­sues and had a pro­cliv­ity to shoot from the hip, say­ing whatever came to mind, work­ing off of in­stinct rather than ex­pert­ise. We have elec­ted out­siders be­fore, but they have been the gov­ernor...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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