This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 4, 2016
It's finally Election day. With 435 House races, 34 Senate races, 12 Governors races and tight race for the White House, there’s lots to keep track of. To cut through the information overload, we created a handy cheat sheet for our subscribers to keep up our most competitive races.
We invited all of the state political academic experts who have contributed to the “Battleground States” series to offer a final prediction of both the presidential vote in their state and (other than the presidential election) the biggest political headline in Wednesday edition of the state’s leading newspaper. Here are the responses we received.
As the 2016 election approaches its unmerciful end, Republican control of the House isn't in much doubt, but the final margin is unknown. The Cook Political Report's outlook is a Democratic gain of between 5 and 20 seats, a wide range that reflects the uncertainty of the presidential margin. But Republicans are feeling more optimistic that they can keep their losses to just 5 to 10 seats, which...
As the 2016 election unmercifully approaches its end, Republican control of the House isn't in much doubt, but the final margin remains a mystery. The GOP holds a 247 to 188 seat majority, and he Cook Political Report's outlook is a Democratic gain of between 5 and 20 seats. That's not enough to flip control, but the ultimate seat count matters: it could affect the viability of the next...
In August, Seattle Democrat Pramila Jayapal was the top vote getter in the all-party primary for a U.S. House seat left open by the retirement of Rep. Jim McDermott, who has represented the state of Washington for the last 28 years. Next week, she’ll likely become the first Indian-American woman elected to Congress.
The tightening of the polls in the presidential contest and in Senate races that has occurred over the past few days has extended to the 12 gubernatorial contests on the ballot. Strategists from both parties acknowledge that Republicans are the beneficiaries in most cases. They also note that some of these contests are so close that it wouldn’t take much to push them either way.
Ever since the news broke on Friday that new emails had emerged that could pertain to the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private server, the question on pretty much everyone’s mind has been how it would affect the outcome of the presidential race.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
GOP Faces Trump Effect in 2018February 17, 2017
Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents upset over the proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act or President Trump’s immigration enforcement or both. Some of these highly unpleasant scenes don’t look too different from what congressional Democrats encountered back in 2009 and 2013, rocky years that preceded...Read more »
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »