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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 4, 2017

Soon after Don­ald Trump was elec­ted pres­id­ent it be­came strik­ingly clear that these would be no or­din­ary times, to bor­row the title from Dor­is Kearns Good­win’s book about Frank­lin and Elean­or Roosevelt dur­ing World War II. Any com­par­is­on with the Roosevelts ends there, but the con­clu­sion that there would be no nor­mal days is even more true now than it ap­peared four months...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, April 1, 2017

The very public intra-party fight between President Trump and the Freedom Caucus is just the latest twist in the ongoing fight over the philosophical, strategic and ideological direction of the Republican party. As has been his mode of operation since his candidate days, Trump has taken to Twitter to shame/intimidate/cajole members of his own party. In this case, it was to get rebellious GOPers...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 31, 2017

With Fri­day’s col­lapse of the Re­pub­lic­an ef­fort to de­cap­it­ate Pres­id­ent Obama’s Af­ford­able Care Act, it would be an un­der­state­ment to say that the GOP is in dis­ar­ray.

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 31, 2017

MINNESOTA: Democratic U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar was easily re-elected to a second term in 2012 with 65 percent of the vote, which helps explain why ambitious Republicans aren’t forming a line to challenge her next year. The other factor that could well spare Klobuchar a competitive challenge is the open-seat Governor’s race in 2018, which has generated great interest among Republicans looking to...

Minnesota House|By David Wasserman, March 31, 2017

There's a tendency in Washington to believe Democrats have hit rock bottom in rural America, but the party still holds 12 House seats in districts President Trump carried. Three are in Minnesota. Democratic Rep. Tim Walz's decision to run for governor opens up a seat that voted for Trump 53 percent to 48 percent, giving Republicans an excellent takeover opportunity in a year when Democrats will...

Georgia House|By David Wasserman, March 31, 2017

It's hard to remember the last time a House race became as much of a national fixation as the race in GA-06 to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price. With less than three weeks left until the initial April 18 primary, minor celebrities and Democratic staff continue to pour into suburban Atlanta, and left-leaning donors - with few other ways to channel their anger towards the Trump administration -...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 28, 2017

Nobody knows where this nas­cent Don­ald Trump pres­id­ency is go­ing. New ad­min­is­tra­tions start off with an in­fin­ite num­ber of po­ten­tial tra­ject­or­ies, but this one is even more un­pre­dict­able than oth­ers. Trump could still turn out to be a suc­cess­ful pres­id­ent. As an Amer­ic­an, I cer­tainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thou­sand cuts.”

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 24, 2017

ALABAMA: On February 9, Republican Gov. Robert Bentley appointed then-state Attorney General Luther Strange to fill the seat vacated by U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions who resigned to become Attorney General, and announced that a special election to fulfill the remainder of Sessions’ term would be held in November of next year. Although Bentley instituted a formal process to pick Sessions’...

National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 23, 2017

President Trump’s private warning that 2018 could be a “bloodbath” if Republicans don’t make good on his promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act may sound like hyperbole, but Republicans thinking of crossing him shouldn’t laugh it off. Just ask Rep. Martha Roby.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Democrats Find It’s Risky to Poke the GOP Elephant

June 27, 2017

There’s an old say­ing that close only counts in horse­shoes and hand gren­ades, and that’s cer­tainly how Demo­crats must feel after los­ing their third and fourth at­tempts of the year to wrestle away Re­pub­lic­an-held seats in spe­cial con­gres­sion­al elec­tions. In fair­ness, the first two shouldn’t fully count against them since the Demo­crat­ic Con­gres­sion­al Cam­paign Com­mit­tee was...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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