The hit that Republican U.S. Senate incumbents and challengers took in the wake of the release of the Access Hollywood tape in which GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump described sexually assaulting women has ebbed a bit, but that doesn’t mean that the party doesn’t face real challenges in its efforts to keep their losses to a minimum next week.
There have been a lot of twists and turns to this campaign, but two things have remained constant. One, whenever the focus is on one candidate it benefits the other one. This is the byproduct of a race that is about personality instead of policy. And, it’s also what happens when you have two of the most disliked candidates in modern American history face off against each other. When we are...
Less than two weeks before the election, Trump continues to struggle to lock down traditionally Republican states -- even Texas and Utah -- and lags behind Clinton in key battleground states he would need to win. The third debate didn't alter the trajectory of the race. In fact, the debates proved to be nothing but a drag on Trump as they highlighted his biggest weakness: his temperament.
It’s the morning after the election, and while half the country is waking up breathing a sigh of relief, another large share is disappointed, angry or even panicked. But what demographic voting patterns propelled the winner to victory? How did those patterns play out in the Electoral College map? And what does it mean for the future of American politics?
For several weeks many Republican candidates and operatives have been fretting that Donald Trump’s misbegotten candidacy could cause the bottom to fall out for GOP candidates in Senate, House, gubernatorial, state legislative, and other down-ballot races. While their concerns were legitimate, it seemed too soon for the GOP to panic. After all, the Donald Trump...
Dennis Dresang is Professor Emeritus of Public Affairs and Political Science and founding director of the La Follette School of Public Affairs. His books include Politics and Policy in American States and Communities and Public Administration, both currently in their seventh editions.
Less than two weeks from Election Day, Democrats are on track to pick up between 10 and 20 House seats, a slight uptick in their fortunes but still well short of the 30 seats they need for the majority. Low enthusiasm for the top of the GOP ticket remains a concern for down-ballot Republicans, but Trump isn't as much of a drag outside of well-educated suburbs, which could limit Democrats'...
Barbara Norrander is professor of governments and public policy at the University of Arizona. Her most recent book is The Imperfect Primary: Oddities, Biases, and Strengths of U.S. Presidential Nominating Politics.
Senate Republicans had been doing a pretty solid job of maintaining their distance from GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump by running their own campaign that focused largely on more local issues or those issues that motivate their base. The strategy was working fine and it looked as if Republicans would be able to keep their losses low. That is until October 7 when The Washington Post...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the TeamJanuary 20, 2017
The general parameters are already well known. In November, Americans elected a president who had no government experience of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy issues and had a proclivity to shoot from the hip, saying whatever came to mind, working off of instinct rather than expertise. We have elected outsiders before, but they have been the governor...Read more »
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