This morning, sophomore Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18) announced he would run for Senate in 2016, giving Democrats a credible candidate for GOP Sen. Marco Rubio's seat. But Democrats will be hard pressed to keep his House seat along Florida's Treasure Coast. Murphy is one of just five remaining House Democrats in a district won by GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney; Romney took 52...
As we noted several weeks ago, Arizona was a rare bright spot for Democrats in the 2012 round of redistricting: under a new map, they captured five of the state's nine districts that year and managed to hold four of those seats in 2014. But if the Supreme Court rules against the constitutionality of Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission, Republicans could very well redraw the map to...
For the last couple of weeks there’s been plenty of buzz about an imminent Marco Rubio “Moment.” As one non-affiliated GOP strategist remarked to me the other day, “Rubio is simply the best natural athlete on the field.” He’s great on the stump, comfortable on the trail and confident around the press. But, with another bi-lingual, pro-immigration reform Floridian in the race as well as plenty...
Illinois GOP Rep. Aaron Schock announced today that he would resign effective March 31 amid mounting questions about his improper use of campaign and official funds. Earlier this month, Schock repaid $40,000 in official funds he used to redecorate his office in the style of "Downton Abbey." Schock's resignation, first reported by Politico, is embarrassing for a party that not long ago counted...
For some time, polls have found former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with higher negative ratings than one might expect of someone who has never before run for president or, until recently, maintained a high national political profile. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images)In the newly released NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted March 1 through 5, among 1,000 adults nationwide, 34 percent of those...
A political media buying firm is asking the FCC to make it easier for candidates to get ads on TV cheaply in the weeks leading up to an election. After Tuesday, the deadline for any last comments from stakeholders, the petition will begin wending its way around the agency with a verdict likely to come later this year. Just in time for the 2016 air wars, and just in time to make nonpolitical TV...
Just five years ago, Democrats held Arkansas's governorship, both its Senate seats, and three out of its four House seats. Today, Republicans hold all of these offices - a total shutout. In 2014, Democrats nominated personable and well-funded candidates in the 2nd and 4th CDs, only to watch both lose soundly. Arkansas may be past the point where Democrats are viable candidates for federal...
If I knew with certainty that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was not going to be the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, I still wouldn't think this kerfuffle over her State Department emails was responsible.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Two Special Elections Add Suspense to MidtermsApril 25, 2017
Two congressional special elections in as many weeks make clear that while the Republican Party is not in a free fall, things are not copacetic, either. Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes won last week’s special election in Kansas’s 4th District to fill the vacancy created by Mike Pompeo’s nomination to head the CIA, but his 5-point victory was far short of the...Read more »
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In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »