Dotty was a friend of ours for 35 years and a real professional. As a pollster in the 1970s, she broke the glass ceiling for women who wanted to work in politics. Later, she and her late colleague, Marty Plissner, shaped the political coverage for CBS News in ways that...
Political advertising may not make anyone’s list of key economic indicators, but 2014 campaign commercials offer another gauge of an improving economy. Whereas jobs and unemployment was the most-mentioned specific economic issue at the top of the ballot in 2012, it has been supplanted by government spending in key 2014 Senate races. Another mark of an improving economy between 2012...
New polling from NBC/Wall Street Journal shows a public still struggling to regain its economic footing six years after the financial meltdown of 2008. Americans’ real economic distress is one reason why President Obama is not getting credit for a steadily dropping unemployment rate and improved economic growth. The other reason a (slowly) growing economy isn’t boosting Obama’s numbers is more...
While hardly earth-shattering to say that control of the Senate come January will depend on whether voters decide all politics is local or national, a look at the issues emphasized by the candidates in their ads confirms that Democrats and Republicans are placing very different bets. Republicans are emphasizing national issues; Democrats are going in more local or otherwise more targeted...
In real estate, the three most important things are said to be "location, location, and location." In politics, it might well be "timing, timing, and timing." As we approach the 2014 midterm elections, the Senate's Democratic majority is teetering on the edge, but the House is just an afterthought, with little chance that it will change control or direction. Had it not been for the Democratic...
With three months left to go before Election Day, the political environment feels much more like 2010 than 2012. President Obama continues to be a drag on Democrats in most competitive House districts. Although Democrats are hoping to refocus voter attention on "do nothing Republicans," they face severe challenges in motivating some elements of their base to the polls. As both parties size...
Every election cycle is different. Each has a unique political environment and set of circumstances, all of which keep elections interesting. Aside from the extremely competitive fight over the Senate, the biggest change this time around is the multitude of Senate forecasts using quantitative election models of various types; these new players are joining the game alongside the more...
The Cook Political Report has updated its House and Senate FEC charts to reflect receipts, disbursements, and cash on hand figures through the second quarter of 2014. Figures listed in these charts reflect the most current campaign summary information available through the Federal Election Commission.
There’s a certain irony in political operatives bemoaning the crass political strategy laid out in - what was supposed to be – a private internal campaign strategy memo for Georgia Senate candidate Michelle Nunn. Anyone who has ever worked for or with a campaign has either written or read a memo like this one: a memo that made frank assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of one’s own...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the TeamJanuary 20, 2017
The general parameters are already well known. In November, Americans elected a president who had no government experience of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy issues and had a proclivity to shoot from the hip, saying whatever came to mind, working off of instinct rather than expertise. We have elected outsiders before, but they have been the governor...Read more »
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In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »