Republicans scoff when they hear that Democrats plan to make the Koch brothers and their heavy investment into GOP campaigns an issue in 2014. Even one top Democratic strategist told me he thought that all the attention put on the billionaire brothers was too obscure for regular voters to care about. Yet, one group, the pro-Democratic SuperPAC House Majority PAC (HMP), says that they have...
Individual political ads rarely inspire buzz for their content and quality. We’ve been talking about Americans for Prosperity’s air assault for months, but not so much for the ads themselves—except when they’ve been scrutinized and found to be somehow inauthentic—as for the subject, timing, breadth and money behind the effort. The vast majority of political ads are forgettable. So when two...
Republicans' 2012 redistricting map effectively packed Democrats into just two districts, the Nashville-based 5th and the Memphis-based 9th, and the GOP's 7-2 edge looks solid for the foreseeable future. That's shifted the action to the primaries, and while GOP Rep. Chuck Fleischmann looks like a favorite in the 3rd CD, 4th CD GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais currently looks like the most vulnerable...
When South Carolina gained a seat in 2012 reapportionment, Republicans simply added a new GOP-leaning seat in the fast-growing Myrtle Beach area, and their 6-1 edge looks durable. After last year's national spectacle in the 1st CD special election between Republican Mark Sanford and Stephen Colbert's sister, attention has shifted to the governor's race and GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham's primary....
With all eyes on a fiercely contested governor's race, Rhode Island's House delegation looks pretty well settled. Last cycle, Republicans threw everything they had at Democratic Rep. David Cicilline in the 1st CD, but still came up 12 points short. Cicilline looks safe now, as does 2nd CD Rep. Jim Langevin. If the state's sluggish population growth continues, Rhode Island may lose one of its...
The most popular parlor game in Washington and among political aficionados across America at the moment is pondering who will run for president in 2016, who will be the finalists for each nomination, and who will ultimately win on Nov. 8. It's always a fun game to play, with an infinite number of factors to be weighed and no one knowing the actual outcome for a very long time. But as much fun...
Number of new anti-“Obamacare” campaign or issue commercials launched since the first open enrollment window closed on March 31: 32. Number of pro-Affordable Care Act campaign or issue ads launched since March 31: 1. The Obama Administration may have reached its CBO-determined enrollment target or come darn close, but that hasn’t exactly stopped the ads. Seven unique anti-Obamacare political...
Anyone who knows me well knows I am usually eyeing the oven for the next fresh batch of in-depth public-opinion data from Democracy Corps, a partnership between legendary Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg and James Carville that just celebrated its 15th anniversary. It gets even better when the two team up with Resurgent Republic, cofounded by veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres, as they did...
Wisconsin GOP Rep. Tom Petri's retirement is just the latest departure of a pragmatic, old-school Republican this cycle. Petri was first elected in 1979 and in 2013, National Journal ranked him the 203rd most conservative Republican out of 234 in the House. He is the fifth member of the Republican Main Street Partnership to retire in 2014. Still, this is a seat Republicans should be able to...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the TeamJanuary 20, 2017
The general parameters are already well known. In November, Americans elected a president who had no government experience of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy issues and had a proclivity to shoot from the hip, saying whatever came to mind, working off of instinct rather than expertise. We have elected outsiders before, but they have been the governor...Read more »
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