The best thing about long airline flights is the time they offer for delving into long reports, uninterrupted by phone calls and emails. This includes reports from economic departments of investment houses—economic consulting firms and groups that advise institutional investors—that give a texture to what is going on in the economy that can shape public opinion. One of my favorite lines about...
I know it’s hard for many people in the DC campaign-industrial complex to believe, but we are still 173 days away from Election Day. While the rate of spending in some of these battleground states is at fall levels, voter engagement is not. Take all of these early polls with a grain of salt: A registered voter in April and May is not the same as a likely voter in September and October....
For political analysts—or at least those who try to be independent and nonpartisan—an occupational hazard is that at almost any given time, one side or the other will be angry about what you say and write. During the run-up to the 2012 presidential election, many conservatives and Republican partisans were unhappy to hear me say that a winnable race was slipping away from them, some believing...
Like elections, professional and NCAA sporting events have consequences. The outcome of each succeeding game or race has bearing on the next. Knowing there will be some impact from each result, and not knowing what that result and its impact will be, is the simultaneous boon and challenge for the political media buyer. DVR-defying advertising opportunities in politics are increasingly rare...
Alabama: Republican Gov. Robert Bentley won this open seat in 2010 with 58 percent of the vote after surviving a crowded primary and subsequent run-off election. By comparison, Bentley’s bid for a second term will be a cake walk in this heavily Republican state. The race is in the Solid Republican column. Alaska: Republican Sean Parnell was serving as the state’s Lieutenant Governor in...
Democratic Rep. Jim Moran's retirement from the 8th CD has generated a huge field of candidates vying for the shortest commute to Washington in the June 10 primary, but auto dealer and former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer is the frontrunner. And in retiring GOP Rep. Frank Wolf's open 10th CD, the nominations are already settled: GOP Del. Barbara Comstock is the narrow favorite over Democratic Fairfax...
In 2012, Utah Republicans once again frustrated Democrats by cracking Salt Lake County three ways, ensuring a GOP advantage in all four seats. Blue Dog Rep. Jim Matheson survived by just 768 votes against former Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love that year, but his retirement all but cedes the 4th CD to Republicans. Whatever drama there was ended when Love captured the nomination with 78 percent...
At a recent lecture at his alma mater, Georgetown University, former President Clinton aired a complaint previously heard from various press secretaries and communications directors. “If a policymaker is a political leader and is covered primarily by the political press, there is a craving that borders on addictive to have a story line,” Clinton said. “And then once people settle on the story...
Springtime of an election year traditionally has been family time on the airwaves. As candidates introduce themselves to voters, biographical ads featuring wives and kids start to multiply. And I do mean wives. Rare remains the ad in which a husband appears alongside his candidate wife. In Georgia, Michelle Nunn’s Senate campaign ads show b-roll of her walking with her whole family, while...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
GOP Faces Trump Effect in 2018February 17, 2017
Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents upset over the proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act or President Trump’s immigration enforcement or both. Some of these highly unpleasant scenes don’t look too different from what congressional Democrats encountered back in 2009 and 2013, rocky years that preceded...Read more »
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