1. Hillary Firewall Holds, While Bernie Hits His Ceiling Despite a last-minute surge of “Bern-mentum” and weakening support among Latinos, Hillary Clinton put up a strong showing at the Nevada caucuses on Saturday thanks in part to strong support from African-Americans and older voters. Her coalition today looks a hybrid of the Clinton 2008 base (women, core Democrats, and older voters) and...
Author: Amy Walter: Articles
For months we’ve been assured by the Clinton campaign that as long as Hillary Clinton holds onto her solid support among minority voters, she’ll stave off any serious threat from Bernie Sanders. Atlantic Media’s Ron Brownstein estimates that the overall Democratic electorate in 2016 will be 35-40 percent non-white. In some of the most populated Super Tuesday states like Texas and Georgia (which...
The quick takeaways from the Granite State: 1. Trump and Sanders won big, but haven’t put to rest questions about their electability and 2. The GOP establishment vacuum remains, but Marco Rubio, the big loser tonight, still remains the likeliest candidate to fill it.
If you predicted that Ted Cruz would beat Donald Trump by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton would lead Bernie Sanders, you deserve a special pundit medal of honor. But, the topsy-turvy results of the Iowa Caucuses actually make some sense when you dig into the reasons behind them. In looking through the Iowa entrance/exit polls (voters are surveyed before they go into their caucus precincts...
I have no idea what is going to happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. If the polls are correct, Donald Trump is on his way to victory in both states. On the Democratic side, Iowa is a coin-toss and Bernie Sanders wins big in New Hampshire. But, I also have little confidence that this is how things will work out. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by anything.
Amy Walter, National Editor
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The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »