Another political analyst and I recently decided just for fun to write down what percentage chance we would give the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. My colleague was bold, giving Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker a 35 percent chance of getting the nod, Sen. Marco Rubio a 30 percent chance, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush a 25 percent chance, and "someone else" a 10 percent...
Author: Charlie Cook: Articles
Politics is always a risky business, with the odds of success the steepest for anyone running for president. So many factors have to line up just right to capture a nomination, and even then, the chances of winning the general election are roughly 50-50. But Sen. Rand Paul's approach to running takes risk-taking to an entirely different and higher level.
Several developments over the past week in the presidential race seem worthy of note. Hillary Clinton is coming under increasing fire from journalists and opponents for not answering many questions from the media, while former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio probably are regretting answering any at all.
The field for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is as flat as any in modern memory—pretty remarkable for a party that usually has a fight but almost invariably ends up nominating whoever's turn it is. While nomination trial-heat polling tells us very little this early, there are some poll questions that are better measurements of at least where these candidates are starting out,...
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Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »
C-SPAN's Q&A with Charlie Cook
Learn more about Charlie and the history of The Cook Political Report through a recent hour-long episode of CSPAN's Q&A.