It’s getting increasingly difficult to characterize the presidential race as competitive. It really isn’t. Donald Trump’s share of the vote hasn’t plummeted, but his numbers among undecided voters—the crucial swing voters who are not part of his base—have become toxic. He has doubled down on keeping his base intact, making it difficult if not impossible to expand his...
Author: Charlie Cook: Articles
What a difference a week makes. In the wake of the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton looked to be pulling away in the presidential race, the fight over the Senate majority was an even-money bet, and Republican control of the House seemed to be a cinch. Today, the presidential race looks like a cakewalk for Clinton, the Republican Senate majority looks...
The headline of a column by The New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg in Thursday’s paper asked the question, “Editorial Writers Have Spoken, but Will the Voters Listen?” The piece noted that The Atlantic (National Journal’s older sister publication)—which had only endorsed two presidential candidates in its 159-year history just endorsed Hillary Clinton
Let’s start with the caveats: A lot can happen in the 34 days before the election. The polls are not as reliable as they used to be. People act in unpredictable ways in the polling booth. All that said, this race has fallen into a fairly predictable pattern. When Donald Trump veers off message and Hillary Clinton performs well, her lead swells to 6, 7, or 8 points. When Trump...
We’re in the political twilight period that comes after the first presidential debate but before reliable surveys measure the public’s reaction. Everyone except Donald Trump thinks Hillary Clinton “won” the debate, but don’t expect a big jump for her in the polls. After the two conventions and some bad weeks for Trump, Clinton jumped ahead by an unrealistic and...
Also On Cook Political
Articles By Author
Charlie Cook's Column
A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the TeamJanuary 20, 2017
The general parameters are already well known. In November, Americans elected a president who had no government experience of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy issues and had a proclivity to shoot from the hip, saying whatever came to mind, working off of instinct rather than expertise. We have elected outsiders before, but they have been the governor...Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »
The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »
C-SPAN's Q&A with Charlie Cook
Learn more about Charlie and the history of The Cook Political Report through a recent hour-long episode of CSPAN's Q&A.