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Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, February 26, 2013

The old Gramm-Rudman trick of scaring the two parties into compromising on fiscal policy by making the alternative politically unbearable for both has failed. Here come Democratic strategists talking up using sequestration’s $1.2 billion in cuts against Republicans in defense-dependent districts in 2014. They may want to look into how well that worked for Republicans in 2012. In some of the bi…

National Politics|By Elizabeth Wilner, February 12, 2013

The likely voter models used by many pollsters to ascertain which respondents are probably going to turn out for an election seemed to conk out in 2012. A new study by one of the industry’s most respected professionals, to be accompanied by R&D on a new likely voter model, finds that the mid-20th century vehicle was no match for 21st-century demographics and targeting. As they have for de…

National Politics|By Elizabeth Wilner, February 12, 2013

Elections have consequences for parties—and now, for polling. An industry accustomed to unquestioned respect that had struggled quietly against its mounting demons for the previous few election cycles is facing an intervention post-2012. A decades-old method of gauging a person’s likeliness to cast a vote for president failed. The resulting gap between some pre-election ballot tests and the a…

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, February 5, 2013

More than 800 different advertisers hit the airwaves to influence the makeup of the 113th Congress, according to an analysis by ad-tracking firm Kantar Media CMAG. The Senate and House races that drew the highest numbers of advertisers—28 and 15, respectively—were both open-seat contests featuring multiple candidates competing for their respective nominations, party advertising on behalf of the n…

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, January 29, 2013

The 2012 presidential campaign may have fired up Washington, DC local television advertising, but the same can’t be said for the presidential agenda. One exception, President Obama’s “all of the above” stance on energy, has brought out industry big spenders oil, natural gas and coal. But Obama’s other priorities haven’t exactly produced a gold rush of advocacy and influencer-focused advertising o…

Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The 2016 Political Environment

Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.

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