2012 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART
May 17, 2012
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.
Democrats currently have 23 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 32 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
NOTE: As a result of decennial reapportionment and redistricting before 2012, many districts listed will undergo minor or major alterations, several will be eliminated, and several new districts have yet to be drawn. Our current 2012 House ratings reflect these considerations, but are subject to dramatic changes as new maps are finalized in 2011 and 2012. Where redistricting has been completed, new district numbers and incumbents are listed. In new districts with no incumbent, the Cook Political Report's policy is to list the "incumbent party" according to the new district's Partisan Voter Index score.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC |
LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-16 |
Jim Costa |
D+2 |
| CA-24 |
Lois Capps |
D+3 |
| CA-47 |
NEW SEAT |
D+5 |
| CT-5 |
OPEN (Murphy) |
D+2 |
| IL-8 |
Joe Walsh |
D+5 |
| IA-1 |
Bruce Braley |
D+5 |
| IA-2 |
Dave Loebsack |
D+4 |
| KY-6 |
Ben Chandler |
R+7 |
| ME-2 |
Mike Michaud |
D+3 |
| MD-6 |
Roscoe Bartlett |
D+2 |
| NV-4 |
NEW SEAT |
D+2 |
| NM-1 |
OPEN (Heinrich) |
D+5 |
| WA-6 |
OPEN (Dicks) |
D+5 |
| WV-3 |
Nick Rahall |
R+6 |
12 DEMOCRATS
2 REPUBLICANS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AZ-9 |
NEW SEAT |
D+0 |
| CA-3 |
John Garamendi |
D+1 |
| CA-9 |
Jerry McNerney |
D+2 |
| CA-41 |
NEW SEAT |
D+3 |
| IL-10 |
Robert Dold |
D+8 |
| IL-17 |
Bobby Schilling |
D+6 |
| MA-6 |
John Tierney |
D+7 |
| NY-1 |
Tim Bishop |
R+0 |
| NY-21 |
Bill Owens |
R+1 |
| NY-24 |
Ann Marie Buerkle |
D+4 |
| NY-25 |
Louise Slaughter |
D+5 |
| WA-1 |
VACANT (Inslee) |
D+3 |
9 DEMOCRATS
3 REPUBLICANS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AZ-2 |
VACANT (Giffords) |
R+3 |
| FL-9 |
NEW SEAT |
D+3 |
| FL-22 |
NEW SEAT |
D+5 |
| IL-12 |
OPEN (Costello) |
D+2 |
| IA-3 |
MERGED (Boswell) |
R+1 |
| NY-27 |
Kathy Hochul |
R+7 |
| NC-7 |
Mike McIntyre |
R+11 |
| PA-12 |
Mark Critz |
R+6 |
| RI-1 |
David Cicilline |
D+15 |
| UT-4 |
Jim Matheson |
R+13 |
10 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS |
REPUBLICAN TOSS UP |
LEAN REPUBLICAN |
LIKELY REPUBLICAN |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AZ-1 |
NEW SEAT |
R+3 |
| CA-7 |
Dan Lungren |
R+3 |
| CA-26 |
OPEN (Gallegly) |
D+3 |
| CA-31 |
Gary Miller |
D+2 |
| CA-52 |
Brian Bilbray |
D+1 |
| FL-18 |
Allen West |
R+1 |
| IL-11 |
Judy Biggert |
D+6 |
| MN-8 |
Chip Cravaack |
D+3 |
| NV-3 |
Joe Heck |
D+0 |
| NH-2 |
Charlie Bass |
D+3 |
| NY-18 |
Nan Hayworth |
R+2 |
| NY-19 |
Chris Gibson |
D+1 |
| OH-16 |
MERGED (Renacci) |
R+4 |
| TX-23 |
Francisco Canseco |
R+6 |
14 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-10 |
Jeff Denham |
R+5 |
| CA-21 |
NEW SEAT |
R+3 |
| CO-3 |
Scott Tipton |
R+4 |
| CO-6 |
Mike Coffman |
R+1 |
| FL-26 |
David Rivera* |
R+4 |
| GA-12 |
John Barrow |
R+10 |
| IL-13 |
OPEN (Johnson) |
D+1 |
| IN-2 |
OPEN (Donnelly) |
R+7 |
| IA-4 |
Steve King |
R+4 |
| MI-1 |
Dan Benishek |
R+3 |
| NH-1 |
Frank Guinta |
R+0 |
| NJ-3 |
Jon Runyan |
R+2 |
| NY-11 |
Michael Grimm |
R+5 |
| NC-8 |
Larry Kissell |
R+12 |
| OH-6 |
Bill Johnson |
R+5 |
| OK-2 |
OPEN (Boren) |
R+14 |
| PA-8 |
Mike Fitzpatrick |
D+1 |
| WI-7 |
Sean Duffy |
R+0 |
| WI-8 |
Reid Ribble |
R+2 |
15 REPUBLICANS
4 DEMOCRATS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AR-1 |
Rick Crawford |
R+7 |
| AR-4 |
OPEN (Ross) |
R+8 |
| CA-36 |
Mary Bono Mack |
R+3 |
| FL-2 |
Steve Southerland |
R+4 |
| FL-10 |
Dan Webster |
R+7 |
| FL-13 |
C. W. Bill Young* |
R+1 |
| FL-16 |
Vern Buchanan |
R+5 |
| IN-8 |
Larry Bucshon |
R+7 |
| MI-3 |
Justin Amash |
R+6 |
| MI-7 |
Tim Walberg |
R+1 |
| MN-2 |
John Kline |
R+1 |
| MT-AL |
OPEN (Rehberg) |
R+7 |
| NE-2 |
Lee Terry |
R+6 |
| NJ-5 |
Scott Garrett |
R+4 |
| NY-22 |
Richard Hanna |
R+3 |
| NY-23 |
Tom Reed |
R+3 |
| NC-11 |
OPEN (Shuler) |
R+13 |
| NC-13 |
OPEN (Miller) |
R+10 |
| ND-AL |
OPEN (Berg) |
R+10 |
| OH-7 |
Bob Gibbs |
R+4 |
| PA-6 |
Jim Gerlach |
R+1 |
| PA-7 |
Pat Meehan |
R+1 |
| PA-18 |
Tim Murphy |
R+6 |
| SC-7 |
NEW SEAT |
R+6 |
| TX-14 |
OPEN (Paul) |
R+9 |
| VA-2 |
Scott Rigell |
R+5 |
23 REPUBLICANS
3 DEMOCRATS |
Note: In MERGED districts, multiple incumbents are running due to redistricting. The Cook Political Report's policy is to list the incumbent who currently represents the greatest share of the new district's population as the incumbent for purposes of our charts.
Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge
www.cookpolitical.com