2012 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART
February 3, 2012
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.
Democrats currently have 20 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 32 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
NOTE: As a result of decennial reapportionment and redistricting before 2012, many districts listed will undergo minor or major alterations, several will be eliminated, and several new districts have yet to be drawn. Our current 2012 House ratings reflect these considerations, but are subject to dramatic changes as new maps are finalized in 2011 and 2012. Where redistricting has been completed, new district numbers and incumbents are listed. In new districts with no incumbent, the Cook Political Report's policy is to list the "incumbent party" according to the new district's Partisan Voter Index score.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC |
LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-16 |
Jim Costa |
D+2 |
| CA-24 |
Lois Capps |
D+3 |
| CA-47 |
NEW SEAT |
D+5 |
| CT-5 |
OPEN (Murphy) |
D+2 |
| IL-8 |
Joe Walsh |
D+5 |
| IA-1 |
Bruce Braley |
D+5 |
| IA-2 |
Dave Loebsack |
D+4 |
| ME-2 |
Mike Michaud |
D+3 |
| MA-6 |
John Tierney |
D+7 |
| MN-1 |
Tim Walz |
R+1 |
| MN-7 |
Collin Peterson |
R+5 |
| NV-4 |
NEW SEAT |
D+2 |
| NM-1 |
OPEN (Heinrich) |
D+5 |
| NY-1 |
Tim Bishop |
R+0 |
| NY-22 |
OPEN (Hinchey) |
D+6 |
| OR-5 |
Kurt Schrader |
D+0 |
| RI-1 |
David Cicilline |
D+13 |
| TX-27 |
NEW SEAT |
D+3 |
| WA-10 |
NEW SEAT |
D+5 |
| WV-3 |
Nick Rahall |
R+6 |
19 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICANS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AZ-9 |
NEW SEAT |
D+0 |
| CA-3 |
John Garamendi |
D+1 |
| CA-9 |
Jerry McNerney |
D+2 |
| CA-41 |
NEW SEAT |
D+3 |
| IL-10 |
Robert Dold |
D+8 |
| IL-17 |
Bobby Schilling |
D+6 |
| KY-6 |
Ben Chandler |
R+9 |
| MD-6 |
Roscoe Bartlett |
D+2 |
| NY-23 |
Bill Owens |
R+1 |
| NY-26 |
Kathy Hochul |
R+6 |
| PA-12 |
MERGED (Altmire) |
R+6 |
| TX-35 |
NEW SEAT |
D+0 |
| WA-1 |
OPEN (Inslee) |
D+3 |
10 DEMOCRATS
3 REPUBLICANS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AZ-2 |
VACANT (Giffords) |
R+3 |
| IL-12 |
OPEN (Costello) |
D+2 |
| IA-3 |
MERGED (Boswell) |
R+1 |
| NC-7 |
Mike McIntyre* |
R+11 |
| UT-4 |
Jim Matheson |
R+13 |
5 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS |
REPUBLICAN TOSS UP |
LEAN REPUBLICAN |
LIKELY REPUBLICAN |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AZ-1 |
NEW SEAT |
R+3 |
| CA-7 |
Dan Lungren |
R+3 |
| CA-26 |
OPEN (Gallegly) |
D+3 |
| CA-31 |
Gary Miller |
D+2 |
| CA-52 |
Brian Bilbray |
D+1 |
| FL-22 |
Allen West |
D+1 |
| IL-11 |
Judy Biggert |
D+6 |
| MN-8 |
Chip Cravaack |
D+3 |
| NV-3 |
Joe Heck |
D+0 |
| NH-2 |
Charlie Bass |
D+3 |
| NY-9 |
Bob Turner |
D+5 |
| NY-25 |
Ann Marie Buerkle |
D+3 |
| OH-16 |
MERGED (Renacci) |
R+4 |
| TX-23 |
Francisco Canseco |
R+5 |
14 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AR-4 |
OPEN (Ross) |
R+8 |
| CA-10 |
Jeff Denham |
R+5 |
| CA-21 |
NEW SEAT |
R+3 |
| CO-3 |
Scott Tipton |
R+4 |
| CO-6 |
Mike Coffman |
R+1 |
| FL-8 |
Dan Webster |
R+2 |
| FL-25 |
David Rivera* |
R+5 |
| GA-12 |
John Barrow |
R+10 |
| IL-13 |
Tim Johnson |
D+1 |
| IN-2 |
OPEN (Donnelly) |
R+7 |
| IA-4 |
Steve King |
R+4 |
| MI-1 |
Dan Benishek |
R+3 |
| NJ-3 |
Jon Runyan |
R+2 |
| NY-13 |
Michael Grimm |
R+4 |
| NC-8 |
Larry Kissell |
R+12 |
| OH-6 |
Bill Johnson |
R+5 |
| OK-2 |
OPEN (Boren) |
R+14 |
| PA-8 |
Mike Fitzpatrick |
D+1 |
| WI-7 |
Sean Duffy |
R+0 |
| WI-8 |
Reid Ribble |
R+2 |
15 REPUBLICANS
5 DEMOCRATS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AR-1 |
Rick Crawford |
R+7 |
| AR-2 |
Tim Griffin |
R+5 |
| CA-36 |
Mary Bono Mack |
R+3 |
| FL-10 |
C. W. Bill Young* |
R+1 |
| FL-13 |
Vern Buchanan |
R+6 |
| IN-8 |
Larry Bucshon |
R+7 |
| MI-7 |
Tim Walberg |
R+1 |
| MN-6 |
Michele Bachmann |
R+7 |
| MO-2 |
OPEN (Akin) |
R+5 |
| MT-AL |
OPEN (Rehberg) |
R+7 |
| NE-2 |
Lee Terry |
R+6 |
| NH-1 |
Frank Guinta |
R+0 |
| NJ-5 |
Scott Garrett |
R+4 |
| NY-19 |
Nan Hayworth |
R+3 |
| NY-20 |
Chris Gibson |
R+2 |
| NY-24 |
Richard Hanna |
R+2 |
| NC-11 |
OPEN (Shuler) |
R+13 |
| NC-13 |
OPEN (Miller) |
R+10 |
| ND-AL |
OPEN (Berg) |
R+10 |
| OH-7 |
Bob Gibbs |
R+4 |
| PA-3 |
Mike Kelly |
R+5 |
| PA-6 |
Jim Gerlach |
R+1 |
| PA-7 |
Pat Meehan |
R+1 |
| PA-11 |
Lou Barletta |
R+6 |
| PA-15 |
Charlie Dent |
R+2 |
| PA-16 |
Joe Pitts |
R+6 |
| SC-7 |
NEW SEAT |
R+6 |
| TX-10 |
Michael McCaul |
R+8 |
| TX-14 |
OPEN (Paul) |
R+8 |
27 REPUBLICANS
2 DEMOCRATS |
Note: In MERGED districts, multiple incumbents are running due to redistricting. The Cook Political Report's policy is to list the incumbent who currently represents the greatest share of the new district's population as the incumbent for purposes of our charts.
Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge
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