The Insider's Choice for Election Analysis

2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART

November 19, 2009

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.

Democrats currently have 38 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 12 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
AR-1 Marion Berry R+8
CA-18 Dennis Cardoza D+4
CA-20 Jim Costa D+5
CA-47 Loretta Sánchez D+4
CO-3 John Salazar R+5
CO-7 Ed Perlmutter D+4
CT-4 Jim Himes D+5
FL-2 Allen Boyd R+6
FL-22 Ron Klein D+1
GA-8 Jim Marshall R+10
GA-12 John Barrow D+1
HI-1 OPEN (Abercrombie) D+11
IL-8 Melissa Bean R+1
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson R+1
IN-2 Joe Donnelly R+2
IN-8 Brad Ellsworth R+8
IA-1 Bruce Braley* D+5
IA-3 Leonard Boswell D+1
KS-3 Dennis Moore R+3
KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9
MI-9 Gary Peters D+2
NJ-3 John Adler R+1
NM-1 Martin Heinrich D+5
NY-13 Mike McMahon R+4
NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2
NY-25 Dan Maffei D+3
NC-11 Heath Shuler R+6
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10
OR-4 Peter DeFazio D+2
OR-5 Kurt Schrader D+1
PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6
PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+4
PA-12 John Murtha R+1
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9
TN-4 Lincoln Davis R+13
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
VA-9 Rick Boucher R+11
VA-11 Gerald Connolly D+2
WA-3 Brian Baird D+0
WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan R+9
WI-3 Ron Kind D+4

45 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-5 Parker Griffith R+12
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+5
CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
IN-9 Baron Hill R+6
MI-7 Mark Schauer R+2
MO-4 Ike Skelton R+14
NV-3 Dina Titus D+2
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0
NY-19 John Hall R+3
NY-23 Bill Owens R+1
NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2
NY-29 Eric Massa R+5
NC-8 Larry Kissell R+2
OH-16 John Boccieri R+4
OH-18 Zack Space R+7
SC-5 John Spratt R+7
TN-6 Bart Gordon R+13
TN-8 John Tanner R+6
TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
VA-2 Glenn Nye R+5
WI-8 Steve Kagen R+2

24 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICANS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-2 Bobby Bright R+16
AR-2 Vic Snyder R+5
CO-4 Betsy Markey R+6
FL-8 Alan Grayson R+2
ID-1 Walter Minnick R+18
MD-1 Frank Kratovil R+13
MS-1 Travis Childers R+14
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
NM-2 Harry Teague R+6
OH-1 Steve Driehaus D+1
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
VA-5 Tom Perriello R+5

13 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
 

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP

LEAN REPUBLICAN

LIKELY REPUBLICAN
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6
LA-2 Joseph Cao D+25
PA-6 OPEN (Gerlach) D+4

3 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
CA-3 Dan Lungren R+6
CA-44 Ken Calvert R+6
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
MN-6 Michele Bachmann R+7
NE-2 Lee Terry R+6
OH-2 Jean Schmidt R+13
OH-12 Patrick Tiberi D+1
PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2
WA-8 Dave Reichert D+3

8 REPUBLICANS
1 DEMOCRATS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AK-AL Don Young R+13
CA-45 Mary Bono Mack R+3
FL-10 C. W. Bill Young R+1
FL-12 OPEN (Putnam) R+6
FL-16 Tom Rooney R+5
IL-13 Judy Biggert R+1
IN-3 Mark Souder R+14
KS-4 OPEN (Tiahrt) R+14
MI-11 Thad McCotter R+0
MN-3 Erik Paulsen R+0
SC-1 Henry Brown R+10
SC-2 Joe Wilson R+9
TN-3 OPEN (Wamp) R+13
TX-10 Michael McCaul R+10
VA-10 Frank Wolf R+2

15 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge

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