2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART

December 17, 2009

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.

Democrats currently have 39 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 11 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC	LEAN DEMOCRATIC	DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6 AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords R+4 AR-1 Marion Berry* R+8 CA-18 Dennis Cardoza D+4 CA-20 Jim Costa D+5 CA-47 Loretta Sánchez D+4 CO-3 John Salazar R+5 CO-7 Ed Perlmutter D+4 CT-4 Jim Himes D+5 CT-5 Christopher Murphy D+2 FL-2 Allen Boyd R+6 FL-22 Ron Klein D+1 GA-8 Jim Marshall R+10 GA-12 John Barrow D+1 HI-1 OPEN (Abercrombie) D+11 IL-8 Melissa Bean R+1 IL-11 Debbie Halvorson R+1 IN-2 Joe Donnelly R+2 IN-8 Brad Ellsworth R+8 IA-1 Bruce Braley D+5 IA-3 Leonard Boswell D+1 KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9 MI-9 Gary Peters D+2 MN-1 Tim Walz R+1 NJ-3 John Adler R+1 NM-1 Martin Heinrich D+5 NY-13 Mike McMahon R+4 NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2 NY-25 Dan Maffei D+3 NC-11 Heath Shuler R+6 ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10 OR-4 Peter DeFazio D+2 OR-5 Kurt Schrader D+1 PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3 PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6 PA-10 Chris Carney R+8 PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+4 PA-12 John Murtha R+1 SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9 TN-4 Lincoln Davis R+13 TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4 VA-9 Rick Boucher R+11 VA-11 Gerald Connolly D+2 WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan R+9 WI-3 Ron Kind D+4 45 DEMOCRATS 0 REPUBLICANS	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI AL-5 Parker Griffith R+12 AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+5 CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1 DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7 FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4 IL-14 Bill Foster R+1 IN-9 Baron Hill R+6 MI-7 Mark Schauer R+2 MO-4 Ike Skelton R+14 NV-3 Dina Titus D+2 NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0 NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0 NY-19 John Hall R+3 NY-23 Bill Owens R+1 NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2 NY-29 Eric Massa R+5 NC-8 Larry Kissell R+2 OH-16 John Boccieri R+4 OH-18 Zack Space R+7 SC-5 John Spratt R+7 TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20 VA-2 Glenn Nye R+5 WI-8 Steve Kagen R+2 22 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICANS	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI AL-2 Bobby Bright R+16 AR-2 Vic Snyder R+5 CO-4 Betsy Markey R+6 FL-8 Alan Grayson R+2 ID-1 Walter Minnick R+18 KS-3 OPEN (Moore) R+3 MD-1 Frank Kratovil R+13 MS-1 Travis Childers R+14 NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) D+3 NM-2 Harry Teague R+6 OH-1 Steve Driehaus D+1 OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1 PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) D+3 TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) R+6 VA-5 Tom Perriello R+5 WA-3 OPEN (Baird) D+0 16 DEMOCRATS 0 REPUBLICANS

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP	LEAN REPUBLICAN	LIKELY REPUBLICAN
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6 LA-2 Joseph Cao D+25 PA-6 OPEN (Gerlach) D+4 3 REPUBLICANS 0 DEMOCRATS	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI CA-3 Dan Lungren R+6 CA-44 Ken Calvert R+6 LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12 MN-6 Michele Bachmann R+7 NE-2 Lee Terry R+6 OH-12 Patrick Tiberi D+1 PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2 WA-8 Dave Reichert D+3 7 REPUBLICANS 1 DEMOCRATS	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI AK-AL Don Young R+13 CA-45 Mary Bono Mack R+3 FL-10 C. W. Bill Young R+1 FL-12 OPEN (Putnam) R+6 FL-16 Tom Rooney R+5 IL-13 Judy Biggert R+1 IN-3 Mark Souder R+14 KS-4 OPEN (Tiahrt) R+14 MI-11 Thad McCotter R+0 MN-3 Erik Paulsen R+0 OH-2 Jean Schmidt R+13 SC-1 Henry Brown R+10 SC-2 Joe Wilson R+9 TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) R+13 TX-10 Michael McCaul R+10 14 REPUBLICANS 1 DEMOCRATS

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge

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