The Insider's Choice for Election Analysis

2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART

January 15, 2010

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.

Democrats currently have 40 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 10 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
AR-1 Marion Berry* R+8
CA-18 Dennis Cardoza D+4
CA-20 Jim Costa D+5
CA-47 Loretta Sánchez D+4
CO-3 John Salazar R+5
CO-7 Ed Perlmutter D+4
CT-4 Jim Himes D+5
CT-5 Christopher Murphy D+2
FL-2 Allen Boyd R+6
FL-22 Ron Klein D+1
GA-8 Jim Marshall R+10
GA-12 John Barrow D+1
IL-8 Melissa Bean R+1
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson R+1
IN-2 Joe Donnelly R+2
IN-8 Brad Ellsworth R+8
IA-1 Bruce Braley D+5
IA-3 Leonard Boswell D+1
KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9
MI-9 Gary Peters D+2
MN-1 Tim Walz R+1
NJ-3 John Adler R+1
NM-1 Martin Heinrich D+5
NY-13 Mike McMahon R+4
NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2
NY-25 Dan Maffei D+3
NC-11 Heath Shuler R+6
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10
OR-5 Kurt Schrader D+1
PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6
PA-8 Patrick Murphy D+2
PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+4
PA-12 John Murtha* R+1
PA-17 Tim Holden R+6
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9
TN-4 Lincoln Davis R+13
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
VA-9 Rick Boucher* R+11
VA-11 Gerald Connolly D+2
WI-3 Ron Kind D+4

44 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+5
CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
HI-1 OPEN (Abercrombie) D+11
IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
IN-9 Baron Hill R+6
MI-7 Mark Schauer R+2
MO-4 Ike Skelton R+14
NV-3 Dina Titus D+2
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0
NY-19 John Hall R+3
NY-23 Bill Owens R+1
NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2
NY-29 Eric Massa R+5
NC-8 Larry Kissell R+2
OH-16 John Boccieri R+4
OH-18 Zack Space R+7
SC-5 John Spratt R+7
TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
VA-2 Glenn Nye R+5
WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan R+9
WI-8 Steve Kagen R+2

23 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICANS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-2 Bobby Bright R+16
CO-4 Betsy Markey R+6
FL-8 Alan Grayson R+2
ID-1 Walter Minnick R+18
KS-3 OPEN (Moore) R+3
MD-1 Frank Kratovil R+13
MS-1 Travis Childers R+14
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
NM-2 Harry Teague R+6
OH-1 Steve Driehaus D+1
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) R+6
VA-5 Tom Perriello R+5
WA-3 OPEN (Baird) D+0

15 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
 

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP

LEAN REPUBLICAN

LIKELY REPUBLICAN
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6
LA-2 Joseph Cao D+25

2 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) R+5
CA-3 Dan Lungren R+6
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
MN-6 Michele Bachmann R+7
NE-2 Lee Terry R+6
OH-12 Patrick Tiberi D+1
PA-6 Jim Gerlach D+4
PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2
WA-8 Dave Reichert D+3

7 REPUBLICANS
2 DEMOCRATS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-5 Parker Griffith R+12
AK-AL Don Young R+13
CA-44 Ken Calvert R+6
CA-45 Mary Bono Mack R+3
FL-10 C. W. Bill Young R+1
FL-12 OPEN (Putnam) R+6
FL-16 Tom Rooney R+5
IL-13 Judy Biggert R+1
IN-3 Mark Souder R+14
KS-4 OPEN (Tiahrt) R+14
MI-11 Thad McCotter R+0
MN-3 Erik Paulsen R+0
OH-2 Jean Schmidt R+13
SC-1 OPEN (Brown) R+10
SC-2 Joe Wilson R+9
TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) R+13

15 REPUBLICANS
1 DEMOCRATS

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge

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