The Insider's Choice for Election Analysis

2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART

May 24, 2010

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.

Democrats currently have 62 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 6 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AR-4 Mike Ross R+7
CA-18 Dennis Cardoza D+4
CA-20 Jim Costa D+5
CA-47 Loretta Sánchez D+4
CO-7 Ed Perlmutter D+4
CT-4 Jim Himes D+5
CT-5 Christopher Murphy D+2
FL-22 Ron Klein D+1
GA-8 Jim Marshall R+10
GA-12 John Barrow D+1
IL-8 Melissa Bean R+1
IN-2 Joe Donnelly R+2
IA-1 Bruce Braley D+5
KY-3 John Yarmuth D+2
KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9
MI-9 Gary Peters D+2
MN-1 Tim Walz R+1
MO-3 Russ Carnahan D+7
NJ-6 Frank Pallone Jr. D+8
NJ-12 Rush Holt D+5
NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2
NY-25 Dan Maffei D+3
NC-8 Larry Kissell R+2
NC-11 Heath Shuler R+6
OH-6 Charlie Wilson R+2
OR-1 David Wu D+8
PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6
PA-17 Tim Holden R+6
RI-1 OPEN (Kennedy) D+13
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9
TN-4 Lincoln Davis R+13
WA-2 Rick Larsen D+3
WV-3 Nick Rahall R+6
WI-3 Ron Kind D+4

34 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-2 Bobby Bright R+16
AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+5
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
CO-3 John Salazar R+5
DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7
FL-2 Allen Boyd R+6
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson R+1
IA-3 Leonard Boswell D+1
MO-4 Ike Skelton R+14
NJ-3 John Adler R+1
NM-1 Martin Heinrich D+5
NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0
NY-13 Mike McMahon R+4
NY-19 John Hall R+3
NY-23 Bill Owens R+1
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10
OH-13 Betty Sutton D+5
OH-16 John Boccieri R+4
OH-18 Zack Space R+7
OR-5 Kurt Schrader D+1
PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
PA-8 Patrick Murphy D+2
PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+4
PA-12 Mark Critz R+1
SC-5 John Spratt R+7
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
VA-9 Rick Boucher R+11
VA-11 Gerald Connolly D+2
WI-8 Steve Kagen R+2

31 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICANS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AR-1 OPEN (Berry) R+8
CO-4 Betsy Markey R+6
FL-8 Alan Grayson R+2
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
ID-1 Walter Minnick R+18
IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
IN-9 Baron Hill R+6
MD-1 Frank Kratovil R+13
MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt) D+5
MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) R+3
MI-7 Mark Schauer R+2
MS-1 Travis Childers R+14
NV-3 Dina Titus D+2
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
NM-2 Harry Teague R+6
NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2
OH-1 Steve Driehaus D+1
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) R+6
TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
VA-2 Glenn Nye R+5
VA-5 Tom Perriello R+5
WA-3 OPEN (Baird) D+0
WV-1 OPEN (Mollohan) R+9
WI-7 OPEN (Obey) D+3

27 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
 

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP

LEAN REPUBLICAN

LIKELY REPUBLICAN
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
HI-1 Charles Djou D+11
IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6
LA-2 Joseph Cao D+25

3 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) R+5
CA-3 Dan Lungren R+6
IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth) R+8
KS-3 OPEN (Moore) R+3
NY-29 VACANT R+5
PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2

2 REPUBLICANS
4 DEMOCRATS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-5 Parker Griffith R+12
AZ-3 OPEN (Shadegg) R+9
CA-44 Ken Calvert R+6
CA-45 Mary Bono Mack R+3
FL-12 OPEN (Putnam) R+6
FL-25 OPEN (Diaz-Balart) R+5
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
MI-3 OPEN (Ehlers) R+6
MN-6 Michele Bachmann R+7
NE-2 Lee Terry R+6
OH-12 Patrick Tiberi D+1
PA-6 Jim Gerlach D+4
TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) R+13
WA-8 Dave Reichert D+3

12 REPUBLICANS
2 DEMOCRATS

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge

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