2012 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART
November 11, 2011
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.
Democrats currently have 23 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 31 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
NOTE: As a result of decennial reapportionment and redistricting before 2012, many districts listed will undergo minor or major alterations, several will be eliminated, and several new districts have yet to be drawn. Our current 2012 House ratings reflect these considerations, but are subject to dramatic changes as new maps are finalized in 2011 and 2012. Where redistricting has been completed, new district numbers and incumbents are listed. In new districts with no incumbent, the Cook Political Report's policy is to list the "incumbent party" according to the new district's Partisan Voter Index score.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC |
LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-3 |
John Garamendi |
D+4 |
| CA-16 |
Jim Costa |
D+3 |
| IL-8 |
NEW SEAT |
D+5 |
| IA-1 |
Bruce Braley |
D+5 |
| IA-2 |
Dave Loebsack |
D+4 |
| ME-2 |
Mike Michaud |
D+3 |
| MA-6 |
John Tierney |
D+7 |
| MA-10 |
Bill Keating |
D+5 |
| NJ-8 |
Bill Pascrell |
D+10 |
| NJ-9 |
Steve Rothman |
D+9 |
| NJ-12 |
Rush Holt |
D+5 |
| NY-1 |
Tim Bishop |
R+0 |
| OR-1 |
VACANT (Wu) |
D+5 |
| OR-5 |
Kurt Schrader |
Even |
| RI-1 |
David Cicilline |
D+13 |
| TN-5 |
Jim Cooper |
D+3 |
| WA-2 |
Rick Larsen |
D+3 |
| WV-3 |
Nick Rahall |
R+6 |
18 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-9 |
Jerry McNerney |
D+2 |
| CA-24 |
Lois Capps |
D+3 |
| CA-47 |
NEW SEAT |
D+5 |
| CT-5 |
OPEN (Murphy) |
D+2 |
| IL-10 |
Robert Dold |
D+8 |
| IL-17 |
Bobby Schilling |
D+6 |
| KY-6 |
Ben Chandler |
R+9 |
| MD-6 |
Roscoe Bartlett* |
D+2 |
| NV-4 |
NEW SEAT |
D+2 |
| NM-1 |
OPEN (Heinrich) |
D+5 |
| NY-23 |
Bill Owens |
R+1 |
| NY-26 |
Kathy Hochul |
R+6 |
| PA-4 |
Jason Altmire |
R+6 |
10 DEMOCRATS
3 REPUBLICANS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-26 |
NEW SEAT |
D+3 |
| CA-41 |
NEW SEAT |
D+2 |
| IL-12 |
OPEN (Costello) |
D+2 |
| IA-3 |
MERGED (Boswell) |
R+1 |
| NC-7 |
Mike McIntyre |
R+11 |
| NC-11 |
Heath Shuler* |
R+13 |
| PA-12 |
Mark Critz |
R+1 |
| UT-2 |
Jim Matheson* |
R+15 |
8 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS |
REPUBLICAN TOSS UP |
LEAN REPUBLICAN |
LIKELY REPUBLICAN |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AZ-1 |
Paul Gosar |
R+6 |
| CA-7 |
Dan Lungren |
R+4 |
| CA-21 |
NEW SEAT |
R+3 |
| CA-31 |
Jerry Lewis* |
D+2 |
| CA-52 |
Brian Bilbray |
D+1 |
| FL-22 |
Allen West |
D+1 |
| IL-11 |
Judy Biggert |
D+6 |
| IL-13 |
Tim Johnson |
D+1 |
| NH-2 |
Charlie Bass |
D+3 |
| NY-9 |
Bob Turner |
D+5 |
| NY-25 |
Ann Marie Buerkle |
D+3 |
| PA-11 |
Lou Barletta |
D+4 |
12 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AR-4 |
OPEN (Ross) |
R+8 |
| CA-10 |
Jeff Denham |
R+4 |
| FL-8 |
Dan Webster |
R+2 |
| FL-25 |
David Rivera |
R+5 |
| GA-12 |
John Barrow |
R+10 |
| IN-2 |
OPEN (Donnelly) |
R+7 |
| IA-4 |
Steve King |
R+4 |
| MN-8 |
Chip Cravaack |
D+3 |
| MO-2 |
OPEN (Akin) |
R+5 |
| NV-3 |
Joe Heck |
Even |
| NH-1 |
Frank Guinta |
R+0 |
| NC-8 |
Larry Kissell |
R+12 |
| OH-6 |
Bill Johnson |
R+5 |
| OH-7 |
Bob Gibbs |
R+4 |
| OH-16 |
Jim Renacci |
R+4 |
| OK-2 |
OPEN (Boren) |
R+14 |
| PA-7 |
Pat Meehan |
D+3 |
| PA-8 |
Mike Fitzpatrick |
D+2 |
| TX-23 |
Francisco Canseco |
R+4 |
| WA-8 |
Dave Reichert |
D+3 |
| WI-7 |
Sean Duffy |
Even |
16 REPUBLICANS
5 DEMOCRATS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AR-1 |
Rick Crawford |
R+7 |
| AR-2 |
Tim Griffin |
R+5 |
| AZ-5 |
David Schweikert |
R+5 |
| CO-3 |
Scott Tipton |
R+5 |
| CO-4 |
Cory Gardner |
R+6 |
| FL-10 |
C. W. Bill Young |
R+1 |
| FL-13 |
Vern Buchanan |
R+6 |
| IN-8 |
Larry Bucshon |
R+7 |
| MI-1 |
Dan Benishek |
R+3 |
| MI-7 |
Tim Walberg |
R+1 |
| MI-11 |
Thad McCotter |
R+1 |
| MN-6 |
Michele Bachmann* |
R+7 |
| MT-AL |
OPEN (Rehberg) |
R+7 |
| NE-2 |
Lee Terry |
R+6 |
| NJ-3 |
Jon Runyan |
R+1 |
| NJ-7 |
Leonard Lance |
R+3 |
| NY-19 |
Nan Hayworth |
R+3 |
| NY-20 |
Chris Gibson |
R+2 |
| NY-24 |
Richard Hanna |
R+2 |
| NC-13 |
NEW SEAT |
R+10 |
| ND-AL |
OPEN (Berg) |
R+10 |
| PA-3 |
Mike Kelly |
R+3 |
| PA-6 |
Jim Gerlach |
D+4 |
| PA-15 |
Charlie Dent |
D+2 |
| SC-7 |
NEW SEAT |
R+6 |
| TX-14 |
OPEN (Paul) |
R+18 |
| TX-27 |
Blake Farenthold |
R+2 |
| VA-2 |
Scott Rigell |
R+5 |
| WA-3 |
Jaime Herrera Beutler |
D+0 |
| WV-1 |
David McKinley |
R+9 |
| WI-8 |
Reid Ribble |
R+2 |
31 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS |
Note: In MERGED districts, multiple incumbents are running due to redistricting. The Cook Political Report's policy is to list the incumbent who currently represents the greatest share of the new district's population as the incumbent for purposes of our charts.
Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge
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