Governors

Vermont Governor: Baseline Analysis

May 17, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: In 2010, this race to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Jim Douglas was among the closest in the country. Democrat Peter Shumlin eked out a one-point victory over then-GOP Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. Given how close the race was and that Shumlin must run for a second, two-year term in 2012, one would think that this race would be on Republicans’ target list. Instead, it looks like one of the safest gubernatorial seats that Democrats will defend in November.
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Washington Governor: Baseline Analysis

March 22, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: Not many political observers would look to Washington State as a place where Republicans could pick up a gubernatorial seat in a presidential election year, but this open seat represents one of the GOP’s best opportunities this year. Two-term Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire announced in June that she would not seek a third term. Her decision didn’t come as much of a surprise. Only one Governor in the state’s history has ever successfully run for a third term, and only one other has even tried. In addition, Gregoire has seen her poll numbers falter in the wake of a $1.3 billion budget shortfall that necessitated making some unpopular cuts. Finally, voters seem weary both of Gregoire’s administration and the direction the state has been moving over the past couple of years. While winning an open seat is always easier than beating an incumbent, Republicans’ chances here are bolstered by their presumptive nominee Attorney General Rob McKenna. Despite Democrats’ protestations to the contrary, McKenna is a mainstream Republican who will be hard to demonize or attach to the Tea Party wing of the party. It helps that the party will not endure the kind of divisive and polarizing primary that has hurt them in the past. This is not to suggest that Democrats and their presumptive nominee, former U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee, aren’t competitive here. In fact, Inslee has more than a few factors working in his favor, not the least of which is that voters have not elected a Republican Governor since 1980. But, if Democrats want to hold this seat, they will have to work for it. This race has been in the Lean Democratic column, mostly due to the Democratic tilt of the state, but recent polling suggests a very tight race that is deserving of a Toss Up rating.
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Utah Governor: Baseline Analysis

March 1, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: Election Day will mark the second time in as many years that Republican Gov. Gary Herbert must seek voters’ support to remain Governor. Herbert, though, likely has less to worry about from the Democratic nominee in November than he does about the challenge he is getting for the nomination at the state convention in April. Utah is pretty hostile territory for Democrats, so they have little hope of unseating Herbert, or any other Republican, in the fall.
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