Governors

North Carolina Governor: Baseline Analysis

February 2, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: Until Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue announced last week that she would not run for re-election this year, she was the most vulnerable incumbent of either party seeking a second term this cycle. The state’s sagging economy, combined with Perdue’s largely unsuccessful battles with the Republican-controlled legislature and a series of missteps of her own making, rendered her the underdog this fall. She would have faced former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. McCrory challenged Perdue in 2008 when this seat was open. It was a close race, but Perdue benefitted from a favorable political environment for Democrats and the vast resources that the Obama presidential campaign poured into the state. She beat McCrory, 50 percent to 47 percent. A Libertarian candidate took the remaining 3 percent. By all accounts, Perdue might not have been as lucky this year. Every poll taken in the race showed her trailing McCrory and her approval ratings were upside down. While some Democratic strategists say that there was a path to victory for the Governor, they admit that it would have produced a very negative and personal race. Now that Perdue is not running, Democrats are in search of a new candidate to be their nominee. The filing deadline is February 29, leaving potential candidates very little time to assess their chances in the race. While Perdue was very vulnerable, we had the race in the Toss Up column. As longtime readers know, incumbents don’t usually move beyond the Toss Up column in the direction of the other party – at least this far out from the election. With Perdue out of the race, it moves to the Lean Republican column.
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Mississippi Governor: Making History

October 27, 2011
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: The race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Haley Barbour has gotten very little notice outside Mississippi, but it has already made history and is poised to make more on November 8. Democrats made the first piece of history by nominating Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, making him the state’s first African-American gubernatorial nominee, which is somewhat surprising given that Mississippi has the highest percentage of black residents in the nation. In fact, Mississippi has more black elected officials than any other state, but it has yet to elect an African American to statewide office. It appears, though, that Republicans will be responsible for the second historic act of the race as GOP Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant is poised to win the contest, giving Republicans the governorship for three consecutive terms. This is something that hasn’t happened since the late 1800s.
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Kentucky Governor: Beshear is on a Glide Path to a Second Term

October 20, 2011
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: Of the three Governors’ races on the ballot in the next few weeks, Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear’s bid for a second term had the potential to be the most competitive. Republicans, though, nominated a ticket that has not inspired voters, has not raised the kind of money needed to keep pace with the well-funded incumbent, and has committed a string of unforced errors. As important, Beshear has governed from just left of center, which has kept him in good stead with a majority of the state’s voters, who tend to sit just right of center. As a result, whatever potential Republicans had here has not materialized, and Beshear should have little trouble defeating state Senate President David Williams.
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