House

Danger Zone: Ratings Changes for Another 10 Democratic Incumbents

September 2, 2010
From House Editor David Wasserman: As the “macro” data for House Democrats continues to look very bleak, we are beginning to see the cracks in Democrats’ House picture expand at the “micro” level. As we gather more individual race-level polling data, we see the once-sunny fortunes of plenty of Democratic incumbents catching up with the dark reality of the overall environment.
This is an environment in which any Democratic laxity or misstep can prove fatal and even underfunded or flawed Republicans can be highly competitive. Some Democrats who took early precautions and have taken aggressive action, such as long-term Reps. Ike Skelton (MO-04) and Rick Boucher (VA-09), are polling well right now in very red districts. For others who haven’t had as much time to build strong relationships with their districts, however, the environmental advantages of 2006 and 2008 have vanished.
Based on the data we are seeing, five more Democrats are joining the Lean Democratic column and five more are joining the Toss Up column.
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Dangerous Numbers for House Democrats

August 26, 2010
Today, by our count, there are a whopping 32 Democratic incumbents who have trailed GOP challengers in at least one public or private poll. At this point in 2006, there were only 11 Republican incumbents who trailed in at least one public or private poll, yet 22 went on to lose. It happens every time there is a wave: as challengers get better known and voters start to zero in on their choices, the lion’s share of those undecided falls to the surging party.
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Danger Zone: Ratings Changes for 10 Democratic Incumbents

August 17, 2010
House Editor David Wasserman explains why ratings have shifted in ten races where Democratic incumbents are facing tough reelections. Three more races have joined the Lean Democratic column, while seven more races have joined the Toss Up column.
CA-47    Loretta Sanchez    Likely D to Lean D
FL-02    Allen Boyd    Lean D to Toss Up
GA-08    Jim Marshall    Likely D to Toss Up
IA-03    Leonard Boswell    Lean D to Toss Up
IL-11    Debbie Halvorson    Lean D to Toss Up
OH-16    John Boccieri    Lean D to Toss Up
PA-08    Patrick Murphy    Lean D to Toss Up
PA-10    Chris Carney    Likely D to Lean D
SD-AL    Stephanie Herseth Sandlin    Lean D to Toss Up
TN-04    Lincoln Davis    Likely D to Lean D

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