September 2, 2010
From House Editor David Wasserman: As the “macro” data for House Democrats continues to look very bleak, we are beginning to see the cracks in Democrats’ House picture expand at the “micro” level. As we gather more individual race-level polling data, we see the once-sunny fortunes of plenty of Democratic incumbents catching up with the dark reality of the overall environment.
This is an environment in which any Democratic laxity or misstep can prove fatal and even underfunded or flawed Republicans can be highly competitive. Some Democrats who took early precautions and have taken aggressive action, such as long-term Reps. Ike Skelton (MO-04) and Rick Boucher (VA-09), are polling well right now in very red districts. For others who haven’t had as much time to build strong relationships with their districts, however, the environmental advantages of 2006 and 2008 have vanished.
Based on the data we are seeing, five more Democrats are joining the Lean Democratic column and five more are joining the Toss Up column.
Read on
August 26, 2010
Today, by our count, there are a whopping 32 Democratic incumbents who have trailed GOP challengers in at least one public or private poll. At this point in 2006, there were only 11 Republican incumbents who trailed in at least one public or private poll, yet 22 went on to lose. It happens every time there is a wave: as challengers get better known and voters start to zero in on their choices, the lion’s share of those undecided falls to the surging party.
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August 17, 2010
House Editor David Wasserman explains why ratings have shifted in ten races where Democratic incumbents are facing tough reelections. Three more races have joined the Lean Democratic column, while seven more races have joined the Toss Up column.
CA-47 Loretta Sanchez Likely D to Lean D
FL-02 Allen Boyd Lean D to Toss Up
GA-08 Jim Marshall Likely D to Toss Up
IA-03 Leonard Boswell Lean D to Toss Up
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson Lean D to Toss Up
OH-16 John Boccieri Lean D to Toss Up
PA-08 Patrick Murphy Lean D to Toss Up
PA-10 Chris Carney Likely D to Lean D
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin Lean D to Toss Up
TN-04 Lincoln Davis Likely D to Lean D
Read on
House At-a-Glance
A listing of candidates and race ratings in all 435 House districts. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference. (Archive)
House Competitive Race Chart
The Cook Political Report's latest ratings for all competitive and potentially competitive House seats. (Archive)
House Summary
A listing of vacancies, open seats, and potentially open seats. (Archive)
General Election Poll Chart
A selection of public opinion polling in House general election contests across the nation.
Primary Trial Heats Poll Chart
A selection of public opinion polling in House primary election contests across the nation.
FEC Chart
A summary of key financial information filed by House candidates with the Federal Election Commission. (Archive)
PVI Chart
A breakdown of the PVI in every House district.
Most Republican to Most Democratic Districts
The Cook Political Report PVI Chart, organized to show the ranking of each district, from Most Republican to Most Democratic.
55% and Under Chart
A listing of the House members who won their seat in the 2008 election with less than 55% of the vote.
DEM |
REP |
TOTAL |
256 |
179 |
435 |
|
154 |
0 | 154 | |
25 |
0 | 25 | |
29 |
1 | 30 | |
42 |
3 | 45 | |
2 |
4 | 6 | |
4 |
10 | 14 | |
0 |
161 | 161 |