House

Nevada: New District Baselines

May 17, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: Just over three decades ago, Nevada had just one Congressional seat. Next year, it will send four members to the House. And while Democrats hold just one of Nevada's three seats today, a new court-appointed special master's map gives them a shot at winning three of four in November. Democrats' initial problem was that they had too many ambitious candidates and not enough seats. But now primary fields have been cleared for the labor-backed Las Vegas trio of former Rep. Dina Titus (NV-01), state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (NV-03) and state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (NV-04). Meanwhile, the NRCC's counter-strategy is clear: completely eviscerate Oceguera and Horsford before the state's presidential battleground gets too noisy.
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AZ-08: Giffords Special Election Heats Up

May 17, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: It didn't take long for a special election prompted by sad and highly personal circumstances to enter the vortex of the national partisan back-and-forth. With early voting beginning today for the June 12 special election between 2010 Republican nominee Jesse Kelly and Democratic former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords aide Ron Barber, both party committees and affiliated outside groups have swarmed the Tucson market. While neither party disputes that the race is very close in private polling, the contest will come down to whether voters see their choice as picking a logical successor to Giffords or sending a national message to President Obama. While we rate the race as a Toss Up, a Kelly win would be more of an upset.
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New Jersey: New District Baselines

May 10, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: It's almost tradition in the Garden State for the court-appointed independent tie-breaker on the state's bipartisan redistricting commission to pick the GOP-drawn Republican map. This time, Republicans were especially clever in putting the hometown of Democratic Rep. Steve Rothman in GOP Rep. Scott Garrett's 5th CD, knowing that Rothman was likely to opt for a Democratic primary against fellow Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell. Despite that titanic June 5 clash, Democrats do have one pickup opportunity, against freshman GOP Rep. Jon Runyan in November. On the Republican side, moderate Rep. Leonard Lance is a favorite to beat back a primary rematch.
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