House

House: Outlook Revised to 32 to 42 Seat GOP Net Gain

July 29, 2010
House Editor David Wasserman explains why we have revised our outlook to a Republican gain of 32 to 42 seats in the House, with a GOP majority well within reach.
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The House 100 Days Out: Are Republicans Ready for Prime Time?

July 22, 2010
A little more than 100 days before voters head to the polls, control of the House beyond 2010 is a question of genuine suspense. Our current outlook remains a Republican pickup of between 30 and 40 seats, with a larger gain not out of the question. There are now 76 Democratic-held seats where the leading GOP candidate has at least $200,000 in the bank. More than half of states have held their primaries, and now that the second fundraising quarter of the year has ended, campaigns are moving into high gear. This is the point in the cycle when the importance of how much money a candidate raises gives way to the importance of how much money is spent and how it's spent.

The question right now isn’t so much whether Republicans have put enough players on the field – they have. It’s whether the candidates Republicans have on the field are ready for prime time. For Republicans, the great thing about fielding so many first-time candidates is that those candidates can brand themselves as nonpolitical average citizens who will do things differently from the Washington insiders on the Democratic side of the ballot. But that newcomer status comes with a risk – most of these candidates have never been vetted, and you can bet more than several of them won’t be able to withstand the heat of a real campaign.
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House District Analysis: Mississippi-Nebraska

July 15, 2010
House Editor David Wasserman releases baseline analysis for districts in Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, and Nebraska. In Mississippi, the GOP’s nomination of state Sen. Alan Nunnelee makes Democratic Rep. Travis Childers (MS-01) one of the most vulnerable Blue Dogs in the South. In Missouri, Republicans are a surprisingly serious threat to 34-year House veteran and Armed Services Chair Rep. Ike Skelton (MO-04), but won’t know who will take on the Democratic icon until an August primary.
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