If this month's special election in South Carolina's 1st District had all the ingredients to cook up a national spectacle, the June 4 election to fill GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson's vacant seat in southeast Missouri is a recipe for obscurity. As both parties survey what the trio of ongoing scandals in D.C. might mean for 2014, it's easy to forget that there's a House race in two weeks' time that m…
The Cook Political Report's House Summary Chart, featured below, provides a complete rundown of all vacancies, retirements, open seats, and potentially open seats in the U.S. House, and is updated each week leading up to every election as the statuses of current incumbents change. Be sure to continue to check back as the 2014 election cycle develops to keep up with the latest news from the House.
Yes, South Carolina's 1st District is gerrymandered to be eleven points more Republican than the national average, and Mark Sanford was more at ease on the campaign trail than novice Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch. But Sanford's lopsided 54 percent to 45 percent win after national Democrats spent over $1.5 million in unanswered advertising highlights the main dilemma Democrats face in 2014:…
Here’s a prediction: If not on Tuesday night, then certainly by Wednesday and maybe even through Thursday or beyond, one party will be crowing that its victory in the special election for now-Sen. Tim Scott’s former seat in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is a sign that it is doing great and will have a successful 2014 midterm election. The other party will be downplaying the national…
The race you couldn't make up if you tried has, admittedly, left us with a ratings conundrum. Former Gov. Mark Sanford's startlingly low personal standing with voters following news of his trespassing charge suggests he's simply unelectable. Yet, South Carolina's 1st District is six points more Republican than each of Richard Mourdock's Indiana and Todd Akin's Missouri, and three private polls ta…
| Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Toss Up | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats (201) | 164 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Republicans (234) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 204 |
| Total (435) | 164 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 204 |
Republican Mark Sanford’s victory Tuesday in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District tells us only one thing about the 2014 midterm elections—that Democrats still need to capture 17 seats to win back the House majority they lost in 2010. Nothing more, nothing less. Had Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch won the special election, all it would have demonstrated was that even in such an overwhe…
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These charts combining Kantar Media CMAG broadcast television and NCC Media local cable data show a TV ad mix heavy on broadcast news in the morning but local cable at night.
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The last issue of "The Rhodes Cook Letter" explored the idea that the Republicans are the "congressional party." This issue takes a look at the opposite - that the Democrats are the modern day "presidential party." The ongoing round of special congression
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