Many people might be surprised to learn that Washington, D.C., which hemorrhaged residents every decade between 1950 and 2000, grew faster between 2010 and 2012 than every state in the nation. But it's not alone. After shedding people the previous decade, big cities such as Chicago, Minneapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Memphis, and New Orleans are all now gaining, according to U.S. Cens…
With 17 months to go before Election Day, it's impossible to say for sure which issues will drive next year's midterm House races. Will a GOP overreach on Obama administration scandals help Democrats? Will messy implementation of the Affordable Care Act help Republicans? It's also possible we'll be talking about something else altogether. But if the 2014 elections were held next week, Republicans…
Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann's decision not to seek reelection in 2014 makes her the first member of the House to announce an outright retirement next year. Four Democrats and five Republicans have announced bids for other offices, bringing the total number of open seats to ten, zero of which are between D+5 and R+5 in our Partisan Voter Index. Bachmann's retirement enhances Republicans' chan…
Florida's 2nd District is exactly the kind of district House Democrats need to win in order to take back the House in 2014. At a PVI of R+6, there are only five House Democrats who represent districts more Republican than FL-02. Then again there aren't many Republicans sitting in marginal seats, so FL-02 is the kind of GOP-leaning "reach" district Democrats need to put in play. Hugging the…
If this month's special election in South Carolina's 1st District had all the ingredients to cook up a national spectacle, the June 4 election to fill GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson's vacant seat in southeast Missouri is a recipe for obscurity. As both parties survey what the trio of ongoing scandals in D.C. might mean for 2014, it's easy to forget that there's a House race in two weeks' time that m…
| Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Toss Up | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats (201) | 164 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Republicans (234) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 206 |
| Total (435) | 164 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 206 |
The good news for President Obama and his administration is that all the controversies swirling around the White House have not had a significant impact on his job-approval ratings. The bad news is that, like so many other second-term administrations, Obama’s may end up spending so much of its last four years fighting fires and fending off congressional inquiries that it gets little else done. Ev…
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The last issue of "The Rhodes Cook Letter" explored the idea that the Republicans are the "congressional party." This issue takes a look at the opposite - that the Democrats are the modern day "presidential party." The ongoing round of special congression
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