President Trump and GOP control of Congress have sparked a 2018 Democratic candidate bonanza. Don't call it "recruitment:" for the most part, these aspirants decided to take the plunge on their own. Many are political newcomers; others have waited years for the right moment to run. And in light of national polling, it was only a matter of time before more GOP-held House seats joined the ranks of the vulnerable.
By now we are all familiar with the GOP formula in competitive House races. Take the Democratic candidate. Put his or her picture next to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in a TV ad. Warn voters that the Democratic candidate shares Pelosi’s "San Francisco values" and will be a foot solider in Pelosi’s liberal army if he or she gets to Washington. Rinse. Repeat.
Earlier this year, Sen. Elizabeth Warren gave a speech to the annual gathering of liberal activists known as NetRoots Nation, where she made clear that her brand of progressive politics, not the more centrist brand practiced by President Clinton and Hillary Clinton, was the core of the Democratic identity.
Despite the over-caffeinated news coverage, little of what happens on a day-to-day or even week-to-week basis in American politics has real meaning or long-term consequence. An exception was the victory Tuesday of controversial former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore over appointed Republican Sen. Luther Strange of Alabama. It was a very big deal.
Republican U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake is getting challenged from both the right and the left in his bid for a second term. The first hurdle will be a competitive primary. If he clears that obstacle, he will likely face a competitive challenge from Democratic U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who announced her candidacy via YouTube video last night.
Republican U.S. Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee became the first incumbent this cycle to announce his retirement at the end of this Congress. His retirement also means that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell loses an important ally, and it opens up the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee in the next Congress.
There seems little question that President Trump has enjoyed his September dalliance with the two top Democratic leaders in Congress, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Aside from the Supreme Court confirmation of Neil Gorsuch, which isn’t technically legislation, this is the only significant legislative victory the president has had this year.
This morning, Michigan Rep. Dave Trott became the third Republican in five days to announce he will retire from a marginal seat in 2018. Unlike Reps. Charlie Dent (PA-15) and Dave Reichert (WA-08), Trott is only in his second term and was already vulnerable after receiving 53 percent in 2016. Furthermore, Democrats already have a potentially strong candidate running: former Obama administration Auto Task Force chief of staff Haley Stevens.
Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Charlie Dent's decision to retire in 2018 not only gives Democrats another valuable pickup opportunity, it further depletes the ranks of moderate Republicans in the House.
If Democrats could have picked one House GOP incumbent to retire in 2018, it would have been GOP Rep. Dave Reichert, who represents a suburban Seattle seat Hillary Clinton won by three points, but has cruised to reelection on the strength of his reputation as the former King County sheriff. Today, Democrats got their wish. Reichert's exit moves Washington's 8th District all the way from Likely Republican to the Toss Up column.