2012 Cook Political Report Redistricting Outlook


Throughout the 2012 cycle, use the scorecard below to keep score of the number of seats each state will draw, who will draw them (gathered by the NCSL’s Tim Storey), each state’s ideal district population, and the number of seats we estimate each party will gain or lose in each state due to reapportionment and redistricting alone.

Because not all seats will be lopsided in favor of one party, not all estimates add up to whole numbers. For example, in Iowa, which is losing one seat and has a unique, depoliticized redistricting process, each party is at some risk and the creation of a competitive “fair fight” district is reflected in our estimate by each party losing “half a seat.”

Overall, Republicans have exclusive control of redistricting in 202 districts, Democrats hold authority in 47 districts, bipartisan or citizen commissions will draw 92 districts, control is divided in 87 districts, and seven districts are in At Large states that do not require redistricting.

Click on each state’s name below for a detailed redistricting preview, complete with a comprehensive analysis and our own maps illustrating possible new district lines. All maps are drawn by House Editor David Wasserman using 2009 Census estimates or 2010 Census data (as available) and a free browser-based application found at Dave Bradlee’s Redistricting App. Feedback welcome.

2012 Cook Political Report Redistricting Scorecard & Maps

Last Updated: February 2, 2012

State  Control 2012 Seats Ideal CD Gain/Loss Completed? Est. D +/- Est. R +/-
Alabama Rep 7 682,819   6/8/11(map)    
Alaska* At Large 1 710,231   N/A    
Arizona Commission 9 710,224 1 1/17/12(map) 1  
Arkansas Dem 4 728,980   4/14/11(map)    
California Commission 53 702,905   8/15/11(map) 2 -2
Colorado Divided 7 718,457   11/10/11(map) 0.5 -0.5
Connecticut Dem 5 714,819   In Court    
Delaware* At Large 1 897,934   N/A    
Florida Rep 27 696,345 2   2  
Georgia Rep 14 691,975 1 9/7/11(map) -1 2
Hawaii Commission 2 680,151   9/26/11(map)    
Idaho Commission 2 783,791   10/17/11(map)    
Illinois Dem 18 712,813 -1 6/24/11(map) 3 -4
Indiana Rep 9 720,422   5/10/11(map) -1 1
Iowa Commission 4 761,589 -1 4/19/11(map) -0.5 -0.5
Kansas Rep 4 713,280        
Kentucky Divided 6 723,228        
Louisiana Rep 6 755,562 -1 4/14/11(map)   -1
Maine Rep 2 664,181   9/28/11(map)    
Maryland Dem 8 721,694   10/20/11(map) 1 -1
Massachusetts Dem 9 727,514 -1 11/21/11(map) -1  
Michigan Rep 14 705,974 -1 8/9/11(map) -1  
Minnesota Divided 8 662,991   In Court    
Mississippi Divided 4 741,824   12/28/11(map)    
Missouri Divided 8 748,616 -1 5/4/11(map) -1  
Montana* At Large 1 989,415   N/A    
Nebraska Rep 3 608,780   5/26/11(map)    
Nevada Divided 4 675,138 1 10/27/11(map) 1  
NewHampshire Divided 2 658,235        
New Jersey Commission 12 732,658 -1 12/23/11(map) -1  
New Mexico Divided 3 686,393   12/29/11(map)    
New York Divided 27 717,707 -2   -1 -1
North Carolina Rep 13 733,499   7/27/11(map) -3.5 3.5
North Dakota* At Large 1 672,591   N/A    
Ohio Rep 16 721,032 -2 12/15/11(map) -1 -1
Oklahoma Rep 5 750,270   5/20/11(map)    
Oregon Divided 5 766,215   6/30/11(map)    
Pennsylvania Rep 18 705,688 -1 12/22/11(map) -1  
Rhode Island Divided 2 526,284        
South Carolina Rep 7 660,766 1 8/1/11(map)   1
South Dakota* At Large 1 814,180   N/A    
Tennessee Rep 9 705,123   1/26/12(map)    
Texas Rep 36 698,488 4 In Court 2.5 1.5
Utah Rep 4 690,971 1 10/20/11(map) -0.5 1.5
Vermont* At Large 1 625,741   N/A    
Virginia Divided 11 727,366   1/25/12(map)    
Washington Commission 10 672,454 1 1/1/12(map) 0.5 0.5
West Virginia Dem 3 617,665   8/18/11(map)    
Wisconsin Rep 8 710,873   8/9/11(map)    
Wyoming* At Large 1 563,626   N/A    
Totals - 435 - - - 0 0

* These states are At Large districts and do not require redistricting