Delaware | Governor | 2008

April 2, 2008

The most competitive part of this open-seat contest where Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner is term limited will be the Democratic primary to succeed her.

Democrats have held this Governor’s office since 1992 when Tom Carper, then the state’s At-Large Congressman, was elected to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Mike Castle. Castle took Carper’s seat in the U.S. House. Carper served two terms as Governor, making a successful bid for the U.S. Senate in 2000, while Minner, who was his Lieutenant Governor, was elected to succeed him as the state’s chief executive. Now that Minner must step aside, her Lieutenant Governor, John Carney, hopes to follow in her footsteps. But, he is locked in a very competitive primary contest with state Treasurer Jack Markell.

On the campaign trail, Carney talks about his proposals to create an early childhood education system, establish a Business Labor Council, invest in renewable energy development, and create Delaware First Care to provide affordable and accessible primary and preventive health care services to every resident.

A central theme in Markell’s campaign is the need to address the challenges the state will face down the road, not the least of which is its aging population and an increase in the number of residents moving to the southern part of the state, both of which combine to create a smaller tax base with an increase in the need for more transportation and health care services.

Like Carney, Markell has put forward a series of proposals that make up his platform, although his plans tend to contain a greater level of detail than his opponent’s. On renewable energy, Markell would seek to attract wind power developers to the state, create a friendly business climate for other renewable energy developers, and pursue additional federal research funds in renewable energy for the state’s universities. He would lead by example by making government buildings “green” and ask the state’s Public Employee Retirement System to develop and implement a “green wave” investment plan.

Markell’s economic development plan would create 25,000 new jobs in his first term, increase access to venture capital, create a supportive environment for entrepreneurship, and build on the state’s relationship with the Export-Import Bank to create opportunities to sell Delaware-made products overseas.

His health care reform proposal seeks to provide affordable and accessible health care to all Delaware residents, and to promote healthy life styles and disease prevention through education.

Other issues that Markell proposes to tackle include; expanding public bus service to Sundays, combating drug abuse, and helping at-risk youth and those released from prison.

There was little doubt that Carney would run for Governor and he made his intentions known early, which enabled him to garner support from much of the party establishment, including Carper and Minner. The question was whether he would have competition for the nomination. Carper and other Democrats put extraordinary effort into keeping Markell out of the race. Some held out hope that Democratic Sen. Joe Biden’s presidential bid would catch fire, creating the possibility that he would either forego re-election this year or that the seat would come open next year. Another possibility was that GOP Rep. Castle would retire, leaving an open House seat. Obviously none of these possibilities has panned out. Then, there was an effort to convince Markell to run for Lieutenant Governor, essentially implying that he needed to wait his turn. None of the suggestions or offers put on the table could dissuade Markell, who launched his campaign on June 6 of last year.

Carney supporters argue that their candidate is in a far better position to win the nomination. They point to his endorsements from party officials, state legislators, and building trade unions, which they contend amount to validation of Carney’s candidacy. Further, they take great issue with the idea that Markell has the experience to be Governor or that he has accomplished much in his current position. Finally, they say that Carney is in a much better position to wage a positive campaign and that Markell is in the unenviable position of making the case for why Carney shouldn’t be elected.

Not surprisingly, Markell strongly disagrees with this assessment, pointing to his own set of endorsements from 15 Mayors across the state and more than 2,000 Democratic activists committed to helping him win the nomination. He adds that the biggest unions in the state, notably the Delaware State Education Association and AFSCME, have not and may not make an endorsement in the primary He further points out that in a year in which voters want change, Carney represents a third term for Minner. It is worth noting that both Markell and Carney endorsed Sen. Barack Obama in the state’s presidential primary; Obama took 53 percent

One area in which Markell has a clear advantage is fundraising. By December 31 of last year, he had raised $1.6 million and had $2.5 million in the bank. Carney took in just over $700,000 last year and had just over $1 million in the bank. Markell is also the only candidate to have aired television advertising, putting up a spot in mid-December featuring Hall of Fame coach Tubby Raymond. It aired on ESPN2 during the University of Delaware’s NCAA FSC championship game. The script read, “I'm Tubby Raymond. As a longtime football coach, I've always urged my players to give 110 percent. And as someone who loves Delaware, I know that our next Governor is going to need that kind of commitment. That's why I'm supporting Jack Markell. I've known Jack for 40 years, he's a real friend. And I know he has the character to lead, and the vision to make Delaware a better place. Now to be real honest, I know that Jack wasn't much of a football player, but I know that he's going to make a great Governor." This ad serves as a good reminder that Markell is in a better position to air advertising statewide, particularly in the expensive Philadelphia media market that reaches 79 percent of the state’s voters.

There is one area on which the candidates do agree: the turn out in the primary is going to be relatively low given that the presidential primary was in February and there are very few contested offices on the September 9 ballot. As a result, direct mail, phones, and get-out-the-vote programs are going to be as important as paid media. Both campaigns contend that they have aggressive programs in place to meet this challenge. Markell also touts his extensive travel across the state, meeting with voters at events which he dubs “You talk. I listen.” Carney is also getting around the state, especially in his capacity as Lieutenant Governor. Until June though, his schedule is a little more constrained because the legislature is in session.

There hasn’t been much polling in the race to date. A Global Strategy Group poll for the Carney campaign (June 6-10, 2007 of 405 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Carney ahead of Markell, 32 percent to 22 percent. The large number of undecided voters, even early in the cycle, was somewhat surprising given that both candidates hold statewide office.

And where are Republicans in this race? Searching for a candidate. The party hoped that Alan Levin, who recently sold his family drugstore chain to Walgreens, would get in the race, but he has declined to run. As has Bill Lee, who made unsuccessful bids in 2000 and 2004. The only announced candidate is Michael Protack, a perennial office seeker whom the state party has very publicly wished would disappear—or at least leave the GOP. Apart from the obvious that Protack cannot win a general election, he has proven to be something of an embarrassment to the party. Barring a late entry by a self-funding political newcomer, it does not appear that Republicans will be competitive in this race.

Democrats have something of an embarrassment of riches here: two very talented and well-qualified candidates. Carney has the party establishment behind him, but Markell’s cash advantage could cut into the value of that support. Carney comes across at times as incredulous that he even has a primary opponent, intimating that he is the rightful heir to the nomination and thus the seat.

If, as Carney and Markell believe, this is a change election, one question is how much change voters are looking for. On one hand, a small plurality of voters seems to believe that the state is headed in the right direction, which would suggest voters want modest change. A Farleigh-Dickinson University poll (October 3-9, 2007 of 700 registered voters) showed that 47 percent thought the state is headed in the right direction compared to 39 percent who said it is off on the wrong track. That bodes well for Carney. On the other hand, Gov. Minner had a net unfavorable rating in the poll; 45 percent held an unfavorable view of her compared to 37 percent who had a favorable impression. Her job ratings were tied at 42 percent approve/disapprove. These numbers suggest that voters might be looking for more aggressive change and might not be wildly enthusiastic about a candidate who is as closely tied to her as Carney is. This may become more relevant now that that state is facing a $326.4 million budget shortfall which will require a hiring freeze in state government and deep spending cuts to rectify. This, of course, could benefit Markell.

This race has a long way to go, and we certainly would like to see more current polling on where Carney and Markell stand today. We’d also like to know how voters are feeling given that the economy has taken a sharp downturn since last fall, and how they view Minner these days. It is hard to imagine either candidate opening or maintaining a significant lead here, meaning that the primary will stay competitive through the summer.

There is no question that this seat will stay in the Democratic column and that the September 9 primary will determine who occupies that seat.