Minnesota | Senate

April 11, 2007

There is probably no other Republican Senate incumbent with a bigger target on his head than first-term Sen. Norm Coleman.

National Democrats still chafe at the how and the why of Coleman’s 2002 victory, while Democrats in Minnesota continue to see Coleman as a traitor for switching parties in 1996 and as an unworthy successor to the late Sen. Paul Wellstone.

Coleman was elected Mayor of St. Paul in 1993 as a Democrat, but alienated the party’s more liberal members and decided to switch parties. He was re-elected in 1997 as a Republican. In 1998, Coleman was the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee, but placed second to former professional wrestler and Reform Party nominee Jesse Ventura. Ventura took 37 percent of the vote to 34 percent for Coleman. Democratic nominee Skip Humphrey got 28 percent. Coleman was preparing to run for Governor again in 2002, but national Republicans, including President Bush, convinced him to run against Wellstone instead.

The race proved to be an epic battle that polling showed to be statistically even. On October 25, just 11 days before the election, Wellstone, his wife, and daughter were killed in a plane crash. Republicans had learned a few lessons from a similar tragedy in 2000 when Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, the Democratic Senate nominee, was killed in a plane crash. GOP incumbent Sen. John Ashcroft ultimately lost that race to Carnahan’s widow and Republicans vowed that history would not repeat itself. Coleman suspended his campaign and his only public comments focused on the tragedy. Meanwhile Democrats found another candidate, former Vice President Walter Mondale.

The instant conventional wisdom was that Coleman could not beat such a political icon, but one event coupled with Coleman’s strategy for the final days proved to be Mondale’s undoing. The event had nothing to do with Mondale, who wouldn’t announce his candidacy until after Wellstone’s funeral. It was the memorial service the day after the funeral that changed the course of the race. The service was held at an arena at the University of Minnesota, which seats about 20,000 people, and was aired live on television statewide. The tribute to Wellstone turned into a partisan pep rally that was intensified by the arena’s Jumbotron, which flashed images of Republicans Senators in the crowd who were then booed by the largely Democratic audience. Former President Bill Clinton’s image appeared on the big screen to cheers from the attendees. The reaction from voters and the media was instantaneous—and very negative. Wellstone’s campaign strategists issued an apology, but the damage was done.

Coleman’s strategy was to be respectful of Wellstone’s memory and Mondale’s position as an elder statesman, as well as to run as the candidate of new ideas. Although Mondale didn’t make any mistakes and was fluent on the issues, there were times during the very short campaign that he looked every day of his 74 years. Coleman won with 50 percent to 47 percent for Mondale.

In the Senate, Coleman sits on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee where he is the ranking member of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. He is also the ranking member on the Foreign Relations Committee’s Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs Subcommittee. Coleman tends to more Minnesota-centric issues from his seats on the Agriculture and Small Business Committees.

Although he ran as a moderate, Coleman’s voting record in his first year in the Senate leaned to the right. According to the National Journal vote ratings for 2003, Coleman scored a 76-percent conservative rating. Over the next three years, his voting record moved more toward center, dropping to 61.5 percent in 2004. It ticked back up to 65.7 percent in 2005, but was 53.8 percent in 2006, which ranked Coleman as the 51st most conservative Senator—or, to put it differently, Coleman’s voting record put him one notch away from the Senate’s ideological 50-yard line.

In late 2004, Coleman tried to move into the leadership. He ran for the chairmanship of the National Republican Senatorial Committee for the 2006 cycle, but lost to North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole by a single vote. As it turns out, the loss was probably a blessing since Republicans lost their majority on Dole’s watch instead of his, though Dole certainly wasn’t to blame for the anti-GOP sentiment that drove the election. And, a Democrat started to make noises about challenging Coleman.

As early as February of 2005, comedian and satirist Al Franken indicated that he was looking at the 2008 race. He moved his family and radio program to Minnesota early last year and began laying the groundwork for the race. He started a political action committee, the Midwest Value PAC, which raised $973,417 in 2006 and contributed $220,100 of that to candidates for federal office. Another $93,000 went to local races in Minnesota. And, although there was little doubt he would run, Franken made it official on February 14 during the final broadcast of his radio show on Air America.

Franken calls Wellstone his hero and quotes him in speeches. He has said that he would be a Senator in the tradition of Wellstone, Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, who “…stand by their principles and lead by their values.” Franken has called for universal health care, an Apollo-style program for renewable energy, and an end to the war in Iraq. Unlike many challengers, Franken has had the opportunity to make several trips to Iraq during the war through the USO.

Long-time readers of The Cook Political Report know that we are always a little skeptical of first-time candidates. As a general rule, most don’t know how to give a stump speech, deal with the media, connect with votes or raise money. We have none of those concerns about Franken. He is a very smart guy with a command of the issues. He is more than comfortable in front of an audience and fundraising won’t be a concern for him.

Instead, we believe that his greatest liability is his profession as a comedian and satirist. His books, movies, “SNL” skits and transcripts of his radio shows will provide plenty of fodder for Republican opposition researchers. There have been numerous accounts of Franken using foul-mouthed language at public events, and as a political commentator, he often makes statements designed to produce outrage. However, those same comments made on the campaign trail might be seen as over the top when they come from a candidate for the United States Senate.

More important is the issue of whether voters embrace the notion of sending a comedian to the United States Senate. It’s true that Minnesota voters elected a former professional wrestler to the Governor’s office, but it created enough buyer’s remorse to fill the state’s 10,000 lakes. It is fair game for voters to ask whether Franken’s candidacy is a serious endeavor or a joke, and whether, if elected, he’d be viewed as a substantive legislator or the chamber’s Comedian in Residence. Would he use comedy and satire on the Senate floor, and if so, would he cross a line that embarrasses his constituents?

Even Franken acknowledges that his profession might give voters pause. At his announcement, he said, “Minnesotans have a right to be skeptical about whether I am ready for this challenge, and to wonder how seriously I would take the responsibility that I’m asking you to give me. I may be a comedian by trade, but I’m passionate about the issues that matter to your family because they matter to mine, too.”

At the same time, Franken is more than willing to toss out one-liners to zing Republicans. During a recent appearance on “The Late Show with David Letterman,” Franken said, “…Republicans run for office saying that the government doesn’t work … Then they get elected and prove it.” For the time being, humor may serve Franken well, but it will be interesting to see when, or if, that changes.

Republicans will always work to keep these issues at the forefront of the campaign, and the media is likely to co-operate. After all, Franken’s candidacy provides a pretty unique angle to the usual political story. Even though Franken’s campaign is in its infancy, his press staff is already defending his profession. In late March, Franken spokesperson Andy Barr told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, "People know what a joke is and what satire is. Sometimes some people don't like the satire or don't get the joke. But it doesn't reflect on the character of the person who made it... Al has been participating in politics for the last decade through satire. Al is who he is, and that includes being a guy with a sense of humor... Humor does sometimes cross a line of being tendentious. Sometimes that's what makes it work..."

All the hype surrounding Franken’s candidacy almost ignores the fact that he has not yet secured the nomination and will have at least two opponents, perennial candidate Dick Franson and lawyer Mike Ciresi, who announced February 10 that he was forming an exploratory committee. Ciresi said that his campaign would focus on heath care, education, the environment and “rebuilding the middle class.”

Ciresi ran for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2000 and spent about $5 million of his own money only to place second with 22 percent in an eight-way field. Mark Dayton, who spent heavily of his personal wealth as well, took the nomination with 41 percent and went on to win the general election. Ciresi also toyed with the idea of running for the open seat in 2006, but Amy Klobuchar had a big head start and Ciresi abandoned the idea.

In his candidate meeting in 2000, Ciresi declined to talk about his ideology and his positions on issues didn’t readily provide a good sense of where he stood on the spectrum. At the time, Ciresi told us that he was pro-choice, but opposed partial-birth abortion with exceptions for the mother’s health or life. He was not completely opposed to the death penalty, but pointed to the number of cases in which death row inmates have been exonerated as evidence that the issue needs to be revisited. Ciresi favored gun safety laws, pointing to an agreement by Smith & Wesson to improve safety as an example of what can be done in this area. He favored fiscal responsibility and opposed tax cuts. He supported an immediate $1 increase in the minimum wage and the creation of a livable wage through public/private partnerships that encourage training and job placement. Whether he has changed his views on these issues remains to be seen.

Generally speaking, Democrats don’t relish the prospect of primaries in Minnesota because they aren’t held until mid-September. Such contests usually produce a battered and broke nominee. Minnesota Democrats try to avoid this scenario by holding a convention in the spring to endorse a candidate and hope the other candidates step aside. In recent years, most candidates have ignored the endorsement and pressed on to the September primary. Both Franken and Ciresi, though, have agreed to abide by the endorsement.

That agreement is part of why national Democrats seem surprisingly comfortable with the idea of a fight for the endorsement. First, both Franken and Ciresi have flaws that do make some Democratic strategists anxious because no one can be sure of how much weight voters will give them. Therefore, there is a sense that a race for the endorsement/nomination would be a worthwhile exercise that would produce the strongest nominee. Second, it is difficult to shake the feeling that perhaps the field could get bigger and that Democrats are encouraging—or at least not discouraging—other candidates to run. There have been about a dozen names floated. Some, like Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, have said they would not be candidates, but other names, like state Rep. Joe Atkins, 2006 gubernatorial candidate and state Sen. Becky Lourey, and former state Sen. and 1998 gubernatorial candidate Ted Mondale, continue to be floated. It is also possible that there could be a couple of third-party candidates.

Regardless of which candidate carries the Democratic banner, the party can be expected to go after Coleman as a political chameleon who changes his stripes to adapt to voters’ moods. Strategists add that the incumbent’s efforts to “remake” himself as an independent aren’t working. They will no doubt use some of the same tactics on Coleman that they successfully used on Republican incumbents in swing states in 2006; namely, linking the incumbent to the unpopular Bush in as many ways as possible. One line of attack undoubtedly will be Coleman’s position on Iraq. He initially had supported the war, but he announced his opposition to President Bush’s plan to increase troops after returning from a trip to the region in December.

Preliminary fundraising numbers for the first quarter indicate good news for both Coleman and Franken Coleman raised $1.5 million and had just over $2.8 million in the bank, per the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Franken took in $1.3 million and had more than $1 million in the bank as of March 31. Although Ciresi formed his exploratory committee in February, he apparently opted not to raise money in the first quarter of the year, according to media reports.

There has not been any public polling in the race to assess just how vulnerable Coleman may be, nor to assess whether Franken is popular with voters or whether Ciresi has any residual name recognition from the 2000 campaign. For that reason, the race is rated as Lean Republican.