Different Year, Different Expectations

By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.

January 28, 2003

This column was originally featured on CongressDaily/AM on January 28, 2003.

Things were very different when President Bush last walked down the center aisle of the U.S. House chamber to deliver his State of the Union message.

His job approval rating in the two Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls that month of 1,579 registered voters was at 80 percent, with just 18 percent disapproving. His job approval ratings for handling domestic issues and the economy were 64 percent and 68 percent respectively, while a whopping 86 percent approved of his "handling of foreign policy and the war on terrorism." An impressive 55 percent said that they would definitely vote to re-elect him, just 18 percent said that they would definitely vote against him, and 25 percent said that they would consider voting for someone else. The country, still shocked by the tragedy of Sept. 11, was behind Bush, wanting him to succeed.

Today, the president's approval ratings in the two Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls taken earlier this month average 56 percent, with 40 percent expressing disapproval.

Among the 784 registered voters interviewed Jan. 7-9, 58 percent approved of the way Bush was handling his job. That number dropped to 54 percent among the 793 registered voters that were surveyed Jan. 21-23, with disapproval ratings of 38 percent and 41 percent, respectively (margin of error 2.5 percent for combined polls, 3.6 percent for individual surveys). In the combined surveys, just 50 percent approved of Bush's handling of the economy; 46 percent disapproved. In the most recent sample, 47 percent approved -- and 46 percent disapproved -- of his handling of the economy. On "handling domestic issues like health care, education, the environment and energy" (same wording on all surveys), 51 percent in the combined surveys approved and 44 percent disapproved; in the latest survey, 49 percent approved, and 45 percent disapproved. Even Bush's ratings on foreign policy and terrorism have slid, to 59 percent in the combined polls, with 37 percent disapproving. In the latest sample, 56 percent approved, and 39 percent disapproved. The combined surveys had 41 percent definitely planning to vote to re-elect Bush, 31 percent definitely voting for someone else, and 25 percent considering someone else.

The new polls show continuing deterioration of public attitudes on issues like the direction of the country, the state of our national economy, the local economy and personal finances. Just 39 percent this month said the country was headed in the right direction, while 52 percent said it was off on the wrong track. A year ago, those figures were 68 percent right direction and 29 percent wrong track. On almost all consumer confidence questions, there has been significant deterioration in public attitudes on the economy.

When Bush reaches the podium tonight, he will face a Congress and a nationally televised audience of Americans who have grown increasingly skeptical of any attack on Iraq that is not specifically sanctioned by the United Nations and part of a broad coalition. News that North Korea is once again actively engaged in trying to build nuclear weapons capability has highlighted inconsistencies and contradictions in U.S. policy toward the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction -- and that has not helped Bush's cause.

Here at home, support for the president's tax cut proposal can be described as tepid at best, with some pollsters reporting that many Americans are not even aware that Bush has a plan. Among voters who are aware of the plan, they seem concerned that it unfairly advantages the wealthy, is not the most efficient way to stimulate the economy and could exacerbate the once again mounting national debt. The president's new proposal to offer Medicare prescription drug benefits to seniors who choose to join health maintenance organizations conjures up images of the elderly having to choose between their long-time personal physicians and getting the drugs they need. While this may be good public policy, from a political standpoint, it won't be hard for Democrats to knock that one out of the park.

While this picture is certainly a bit overstated, its essence remains true. While the president is not quite up to his ears in alligators, he has problems all around him, and he needs a very strong speech to galvanize public opinion that in recent weeks has grown increasingly skeptical. It is a very long time between now and the Nov. 2, 2004, general election -- but there are few opportunities to have the ears of most Americans and affect public opinion to the degree that a State of the Union speech affords. This one had better be good.