The Presidential Version of 'Survivor'

By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.

January 21, 2003

This column was originally featured on CongressDaily/AM on January 21, 2003.

With six virtually announced contenders in the wide-open contest for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, and at least four more in varying degrees of consideration, there are as many theories of what will happen as people who are thinking about it.

Most of the attention focuses on Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who is the closest to a front-runner at this point. Also playing are Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, along with Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is getting a surprising degree of notice. And the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York is playing the role of Jesse Jackson -- not playing to win but to get noticed, affect the race and get his agenda of issues addressed. Almost in the contest is Sen. Bob Graham of Florida, who at this stage seems likely to get in. But his relatively late start (isn't that an amazing statement) puts him in a precarious position. Others considering bids include former Sens. Gary Hart of Colorado and Carol Moseley-Braun of Illinois and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas.

Of the many theories, here is a rather simplistic one that, for now, seems as logical as any. Few of the dates are carved in concrete. Witness the effort to move the District of Columbia primary ahead of New Hampshire because D.C. is not a state, and thus not precluded from coming ahead of New Hampshire under Democratic rules, which say no state can precede New Hampshire. Even so, the Iowa caucuses are likely to go first. The most commonly tossed-about date for the caucus is Monday, Jan. 19. There is a slight problem with that date, however. Iowa Democrats are not sure if holding it then would be considered a slight to the African-American community, as that is the date of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

At this juncture, Gephardt, who won his neighboring state of Iowa when he ran for president in 1988, is considered the front-runner. But not even his own backers believe he is even close to having it wrapped up. Should Gephardt lose Iowa, his candidacy is virtually doomed; indeed, he probably would have to win it with some points to spare for it to be considered a real win. He would need an even greater margin to exceed expectations, the biggest kind of victory of all. The next question is, who comes in second place and how close to first is he? Is there a strong third-place finisher? Are the candidates who end up in the "place" or "show" positions surprises, again exceeding expectations?

The next contest, at least at this point, would be New Hampshire, tentatively slated for Tuesday, Jan. 27. Keep in mind that if the District of Columbia moves its primary to a week earlier, New Hampshire law gives its secretary of state the authority to change the schedule, should any other state encroach on its domain. Kerry, from neighboring Massachusetts, is in the same position in New Hampshire that Gephardt is in Iowa: He has to win it, and maybe winning it with some points to spare would make it more convincing. A New Hampshire loss for Kerry would be devastating to his hopes. Then the question is who comes in second or third and how close. But with Gephardt or any other Iowa winner under pressure to finish strongly, showing momentum that continues beyond Iowa is key.

At this point, the next two contests appear likely to take place Feb. 3 in South Carolina and Missouri. As with Gephardt in Iowa and Kerry in New Hampshire, the pressure would be on Edwards to win next door in the Palmetto State, but also on Graham, the only other Southerner, to make a significant showing. Any candidate who has not come in first or second in Iowa or New Hampshire could have problems in South Carolina and Missouri, since momentum starts becoming very important at that phase. Missouri is the first state in the process that is reasonably representative of the country and can be considered tilting toward Gephardt -- as long as Gephardt wins Iowa and is still viable. If not, Missouri becomes the first state with a big load of delegates and a huge battleground for all the others. If Gephardt does win Iowa and is still a major contender, others will be cherry picking around the state for pockets of delegates here or there -- keeping in mind Democratic proportional representation rules in the allocation of delegates.

While Lieberman, who holds a slight lead over the rest of the field in the national polls, has no single "make it or break it" state as do Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards, he really has to come in first or second in one of those primaries to remain viable. Similarly, Dean, who is much further back in the field than Lieberman, must surprise people in one of those three early fights to raise enough money to stay in the hunt as well. New Hampshire, his next-door state, makes the most sense. Although Sharpton has a different kind of race with different expectations, he will have to do very well with African-American voters in South Carolina to show that he isn't a local candidate. But Sharpton will not have the same kind of pressure to win, place or show to keep money coming in that the other candidates will have.

If it sounds like a weird variation on CBS's "Survivor," it is.