Presidential Numbers

By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.

January 14, 2003

This column was originally featured on CongressDaily/AM on January 14, 2003.

Although history tells us there is absolutely no relationship between a president's job approval rating during his first 33 months in office and whether he was subsequently re-elected, it is still interesting to watch a president's poll numbers before that time marker for signs of potential vulnerability or enduring strength.

In 1982, at the end of their second year in office, Republicans lost 26 House seats and came within 34,000 votes of losing five Senate seats and control of the Senate, while President Reagan had only a 41 percent approval rating in the Gallup Poll. Yet two years later, Reagan won re-election with almost 59 percent of the vote, carrying 49 out of 50 states.

President Clinton had Gallup approval ratings in the 40-42 percent range in December 1994, a month after his party lost 52 House and eight Senate seats. Yet, he won re-election by an 8.5-point margin two years later. President Nixon had an unimpressive 52 percent approval rating in December 1970, but carried 49 states in 1972. President Carter enjoyed a 51 percent approval rating in December 1978, only to lose to Reagan by 10 points.

The best example is President George H.W. Bush, who enjoyed admirable Gallup approval ratings ranging from 58 percent to 63 percent in December 1990 -- later reaching 89 percent after his Persian Gulf War victory. Yet he went on to lose re-election with the lowest percentage of any incumbent in 80 years.

Interestingly, it is not until October of the year before the presidential election, or the 34th month of a presidency, that these numbers become relevant. In August and September of the year before the presidential election, most presidents are clumped in the 53 percent to 54 percent approval range. After that, the winners start moving up, while the losers start their decline and only later make an insufficient resurgence. Thus, while the current President Bush's Gallup approval numbers are impressive -- in polling Jan. 3-5, they were 63 percent approving, 32 percent disapproving -- they are not terribly relevant if the past five elected presidents' experiences are any guide.

Bush's approval numbers in the most recent Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report surveys are somewhat lower. In the two combined most recent polls -- taken Dec. 17-19 and Jan. 7-9 among 1,553 registered voters with a 2.5-point error margin -- 59 percent approved of Bush's overall performance in office, with 38 percent disapproving. Among the 784 registered voters interviewed in January with a 3.6-point error margin, his approval rating was a statistically insignificant point less, 58 percent, with a 38 percent disapproval rating. That was the lowest rating in the series of 27 Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls, which commenced in early January 2002.

In the combined late December-early January Ipsos surveys, 51 percent approved of the president's handling of the economy and 46 percent disapproved, while he scored an almost identical 51 percent approval, 45 percent disapproval, on handling domestic issues. Sixty-three percent approved of his handling of foreign affairs and the war on terrorism and only 34 percent disapproved.

When given three options, 42 percent of registered voters in the combined survey said they would "definitely" vote to re-elect Bush as president, 26 percent said they would consider voting for someone else, and 29 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else.

In the first quarter of last year, the "definitely" vote to re-elect number was 54 percent; then it dropped to 50 percent in the second quarter, to 42 percent in the third quarter, then eased back up two points to 44 percent in the fourth quarter. In the most recent survey, 42 percent said they would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, while 25 percent said they would consider someone else and 30 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else. While these numbers are not bad, having 55 percent say that they are at least open to alternatives suggests the election might not be as much of a done a deal as some seem to think.

While history tells us not to get too worked up over these numbers, the parallel with the current president's father is certainly curious. After the Persian Gulf War victory, the first President Bush enjoyed stratospheric overall approval ratings driven by incredibly high marks on foreign policy. Yet, at the same time, his marks on handling economic and domestic issues were anemic, foreshadowing real problems once the spotlight began to shift.

Republicans argue quite rightly that the current Bush's numbers have held up longer than those of any other president after a foreign policy success, suggesting that he may simply run through the balance of his presidency with a halo over his head resulting from his handling of the war on terrorism. But can he count on that to win the election?