Competitive House Districts: Pennsylvania to Wisconsin
August 24, 2018 | David Wasserman with maps by J. Miles Coleman and Ally Flinn
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) -Southeast: Bucks County
Lean Republican. In February, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court dealt Fitzpatrick a small setback when it slightly redrew this Bucks County seat, making it a point less Republican. But Fitzpatrick may have received an even bigger gift when multi-millionaire attorney and philanthropist Scott Wallace won the Democratic primary in May. Wallace has the ability to self-fund the race, but he's off to a very rocky start and may have problems money can't solve.
This Bucks County seat is a true swing district: it voted for Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 47 percent in 2016. It's the kind of seat that should be atop Democrats' target list in a wave. But Bucks also has a strong local identity, and the Fitzpatrick family has succeeded in building a strong, moderate brand (Fitzpatrick was just endorsed by Gabby Giffords and the AFL-CIO). It's also the kind of place where Wallace's wealth, elite pedigree and out-of-state addresses could backfire.
Wallace is the grandson of former FDR vice president Henry Wallace. He grew up in Bucks County, and his bio video notes he grew up "flipping burgers" there. But he hasn't lived there in decades, and until recently he was a registered lobbyist for non-profits who lived in Maryland. His Maryland homestead exemption claim and his ties to exclusive South African country clubs is ready-made for attack ads geared towards Bucks's parochial, blue-collar electorate.
Until recently, Wallace ran his family philanthropy, the Wallace Global Fund, which lists $140 million in assets and supports environmental causes and women's reproductive rights. In a 2016 blog post entitled "Why I am a Patriotic Millionaire," Wallace explains that he split his time between the DC area and South Africa, where he fought corporate influence and nurtured a young democracy. In the post, he's pictured on an expedition to Antarctica.
Plenty of DC Democrats have expressed excitement about Wallace's potential to spend whatever it takes to win, especially in the expensive Philadelphia market. In the primary, he loaned his campaign $2.5 million and crushed 32-year old Navy veteran Rachel Reddick on the airwaves, winning 57 percent to 36 percent. Reddick only raised $363,000 and was shunned by most party strategists, and Wallace attacked her for being a registered Republican in the past.
But Reddick might have made a much stronger general election nominee. Reddick had also only recently moved back to the district. However, her profile as a young, female JAG corps officer could have made her more difficult to attack as a carpetbagger (after all, Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent, moved back from California to run for his brother's seat). And, her status as a former Republican might have made her more appealing beyond the Democratic base.
Instead, Wallace's general election efforts have gotten off to a very rough start. The day after the primary, the Forward published a piece documenting that the Wallace Global Fund gave $300,000 to groups supporting the BDS (Boycott, Divest, Sanction) movement against Israel. Wallace says he didn't control the expenditures and disavows BDS, but it took a month for one local Jewish Democratic group to reinstate its support for him.
On June 21, the Republican Jewish coalition began running a brutal ad attacking Wallace for owning "mansions in Maryland and South Africa" and "donating $300,000 to anti-Semitic organizations that promote boycotting Israel." The final tag line? "At home in South Africa, too radical for us." The ad forced Wallace to respond with an almost unheard-of June damage-control ad noting that he "lives in the house he was born in" and is a "strong supporter of Israel."
Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick has had no problem winning allies. He's garnered support from unlikely places: his support for additional gun safety measures earned him former Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords's endorsement, and the AFL-CIO endorsed him over Wallace. Moreover, as the only suburban Philadelphia Republican who isn't retiring or resigning, Fitzpatrick is sure to be the GOP's top priority in the region and will have the resources to defend himself.
In a year when other suburban Republicans are being lumped in with the Trump brand, Fitzpatrick is a genuine moderate with a good story to tell. He'll highlight his advocacy on behalf of Navy veteran Matt Bellina, a constituent who was diagnosed with ALS in 2014 at age 30, as the lead House sponsor of the Right to Try legislation signed into law earlier this year. He'll also benefit from residual goodwill from his brother and predecessor, former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick.
A Monmouth University Poll taken in early June showed Fitzpatrick leading Wallace among all potential voters 49 percent to 42 percent, with a tighter contest among the most interested voters. Given the year and the new map, Fitzpatrick should be in more trouble. But even in waves, candidates still matter, and there's a wide path for Fitzpatrick and Republicans to disqualify Wallace as out of touch.
PA-07: VACANT (Dent) (R) - Lehigh Valley: Allentown, Bethlehem
Lean Democratic. Republicans suffered dual setbacks when moderate GOP Rep. Charlie Dent announced his retirement and a new court-ordered map reunited the Lehigh Valley in the new 7th CD, converting it from a Trump seat to a Clinton seat. Dent, a vocal Trump critic, has since resigned and signed on a CNN commentator, but Gov. Tom Wolf opted not to hold a special election before November.
The new lines and political climate should give Democrats an edge, but this "blank slate" matchup is starting to heat up. In May, Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein won the GOP primary with 51 percent. Meanwhile, Democratic attorney Susan Wild won the Democratic primary with 33 percent over conservative prosecutor John Morganelli (30 percent) and progressive pastor Greg Edwards (26 percent).
On paper, Nothstein has the dream biography that would seem to give Republicans a chance to hold a Clinton seat. Nothstein, a cyclist who became a local hero when he won the 2000 Olympic gold medal in the men's sprint, was once known as "The Blade" and now calls himself a "Charlie Dent Republican." For the past few years, he's been the executive director of the Lehigh Valley Velodrome.
But last week, the Allentown Morning-Call rocked the race by reporting Nothstein had been placed on administrative leave from the velodrome in February pending a SafeSport investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct alleged to have occurred in 2000. The anonymous tips were made by a third party and Nothstein adamantly denies them, noting a local police investigation found the claims baseless.
In this tight-knit corner of the state, Nothstein's fight to clear his name could end up sucking up all the oxygen in the race. That's a problem for Republicans, who are eager to point out that Wild used to be a DC lawyer and served as Allentown's city solicitor under soon-to-be-jailed Mayor Ed Pawlowski, who was recently convicted on federal corruption charges.
Wild ended June with a commanding $700,000 to $178,000 cash on hand advantage thanks to support from EMILY's List and online Democratic groups. That, and the Democratic tilt of the district and the year, could be enough to win. Still, this is a parochial district where Republicans (such as current Sen. Pat Toomey) have bucked national trends in the past. The race is far from over.
PA-10: Scott Perry (R) - Central: Harrisburg, York
Lean Republican. At least several Keystone State Republicans are concerned that Perry, a three-term Freedom Caucus member, remains unprepared for a fight in a Harrisburg district that was redrawn in February to be much more competitive and is 41 percent new to him. Under the old lines, President Trump won Perry's seat by 22 points. But under the new lines, Trump won it by just 52 percent to 43 percent.
In the May primary, Democrats nominated pastor and retired Army officer George Scott with 36 percent. Some Democrats believe his military background and status as a political outsider matches up well against Perry, an Iraq War veteran and former state legislator. Scott outraised the incumbent $241,000 to $188,000 in the most recent fundraising period (Perry still had more cash on hand, $553,000 to $207,000).
If need be, Perry could probably use Scott's primary ad, in which the Democrat throws rifles onto a bonfire while calling for expanded background checks, against him. But Perry has never had to run in a competitive general election, and this seat is now much more suburban. If Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey win comfortably at the top of the ticket, this race could fly under the radar and feel the effects.
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R) - Northwest: Erie, Butler
Lean Republican. Kelly hasn't had a competitive race since he unseated Erie Democratic Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper in 2010, and that's partially because Republicans split Erie in half in 2011 redistricting and added more of Kelly's Butler County base. But this year's new court-ordered map reunites Erie, dropping President Trump's 2016 share from 61 percent to 58 percent and giving Democrats hope they can capitalize on the seat's Democratic registration edge.
Local Democrats are excited Erie attorney Ron DiNicola, 61, is running. This isn't DiNicola's first rodeo: he took 49 percent of the vote here in 1996, nearly beating then-GOP Rep. Phil English. DiNicola, a former Marine Corps boxer, served as Muhammad Ali's personal attorney for several decades and has most recently served on the board of a non-profit geared towards establishing a community college in Erie.
An early June poll taken by Normington Petts for the DiNicola campaign found Kelly leading 50 percent to 44 percent, and a May PPP poll found Kelly ahead 48 percent to 43 percent. Despite Trump's breakthrough in this corner of the state, the combination of a district redrawn favorably for Democrats, a credible Democratic contender and a pro-Democratic national environment make this a potential upset.
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R) - Pittsburgh suburbs, Beaver County
Lean Democratic. In February, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court set up an epic clash when its new map paired two incumbents in the Pittsburgh suburbs in the new 17th CD. But a July Monmouth University poll showed newly elected Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb leading three-term GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus 51 percent to 39 percent. It corroborates data parties have seen privately, and Republicans may decide to spend elsewhere.
The new 17th CD is close to Lamb's dream district. It unites almost all of suburban Allegheny County, including his home and political base of Mt. Lebanon, with Beaver County, which has a strong blue-collar Democratic heritage.
On the whole, it's much less Republican and more Pittsburgh-centric than either incumbent's current seat. Both Lamb and Rothfus's current seats voted for President Trump by around 20 points. But the new 17th CD voted for Trump by just two points, 49 percent to 47 percent (its PVI is R+3, versus R+11 in both the current 12th and 18th CDs). It also sports a double-digit Democratic voter registration advantage.
Technically, Lamb currently represents just 20 percent of the new 17th CD compared to 56 percent for Rothfus, according to widely respected number-crunching by the liberal website Daily Kos Elections. And, whereas Lamb came to Congress by a razor-thin 755 votes in a March special election, Rothfus has won comfortably with more than 59 percent in his last two races. But Rothfus might not have much of an incumbency advantage.
Rothfus, a 56-year-old former corporate attorney, hasn't had a competitive race since defeating Democratic Rep. Mark Critz in 2012 and has kept a low profile in the House. On the other hand, Lamb, 34, is a Marine veteran and prosecutor riding sky-high publicity from his recent ad spending and special election victory. What's more, Lamb will be able to able to attack Rothfus's votes for the GOP healthcare and tax bills, cast before the new lines came out.
Lamb and Rothfus both ended June with around $2 million on hand, but Lamb's new-found national celebrity gives him the potential to raise much more. The combination of dramatically better district lines for Democrats, the candidate resume contrast and an anti-Trump national mood give Lamb the clear advantage.
SC-01: OPEN (Sanford) (R) - Southeast: Charleston, Hilton Head
Lean Republican. In June, defense contractor and conservative state Rep. Katie Arrington unseated Trump critic and GOP Rep. Mark Sanford in the Republican primary, 51 percent to 47 percent. Ten days later, Arrington suffered serious injuries in a car accident that left another person dead, putting the fall campaign on hold. But now the race is back on, and Democrats could capitalize on a powerful Lowcountry wedge issue: offshore drilling.
Arrington underwent multiple surgeries for rib and spinal fractures and left the hospital on July 6. As tragic as the incident was, the extensive local media coverage of Arrington's trauma and recovery likely boosted the GOP nominee's name ID significantly. But Democratic attorney and ocean engineer Joe Cunningham, who suspended his campaign while Arrington was in the hospital, has room to grow.
This coastal, highly college-educated Lowcountry district voted for President Trump 53 percent to 41 percent, but it's full of northern transplants who have relocated to Hilton Head and the Charleston suburbs and consider themselves moderate Republicans. Democrats believe Cunningham's path involves cobbling together a coalition of energized Democrats and moderate, pro-Sanford Republicans.
Cunningham, a first-time candidate who is married to a yoga studio owner, says he won't vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. But the potential explosiveness of the offshore drilling issue is what makes this race in an R+10 district unique.
During the GOP primary, Arrington appeared to support the president's proposal to lift an offshore drilling ban. Arrington now denies she ever expressed support for drilling off South Carolina's coast, but a month after the primary Sanford called that "a complete lie." Sanford hasn't endorsed Arrington, and notably, the GOP mayors of Folly Beach and Isle of Palms have endorsed Cunningham, the ocean engineer.
One private poll conducted by a reputable pollster depicts a single-digit race, with Arrington short of 50 percent. Arrington self-funded $400,000 in the primary and will likely spend more on ads calling her opponent "Pelosi Joe." But Charleston is a fairly efficient market and Cunningham had a respectable $318,000 on hand to Arrington's $61,000 at the end of June. Arrington still has an advantage, but it's a real race.
TX-07: John Culberson (R) - Houston northwest suburbs: Jersey Village
Toss Up. This upscale, diversifying Houston district used to elect George H.W. Bush to the Congress. But in 2016 it swung hard away from Trump: it voted for Clinton by a point after voting for Mitt Romney by 21 points in 2012. And Culberson, a low-key Freedom Caucus member, is an increasingly odd fit here. He remains poorly defined after nearly two decades in the House, and today, he's in the race of his life against Democratic attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher.
Throughout 2017, Republican operatives routinely identified Culberson as one of the incumbents least prepared for a Democratic wave. He was slow to raise money and cited Hurricane Harvey as the reason for his lack of engagement, calling it "tasteless" to ask for money from people who have "lost everything." In the second quarter of 2018, he was outraised by Fletcher $1 million to $484,000, and he'll need lots of outside reinforcements in the expensive Houston market.
Fletcher grew up in Houston and graduated from Kenyon College and William & Mary Law. In her primary ads, she talked about her anti-discrimination cases and her activism for Planned Parenthood and asserted "Donald Trump is threatening every Houston family." She doesn't come across as particularly moderate and Republicans are likely to attack her as a "liberal trial lawyer."
But Democrats are relieved that Fletcher beat pot-stirring progressive Laura Moser in the May runoff, 67 percent to 33 percent. In a 2014 Washingtonian article, Moser had written that she'd rather have her "teeth pulled out without anesthesia" than live in small-town East Texas. The DCCC's decision to leak the statement burnished Moser's credentials, but in the end local Democrats were more comfortable with Fletcher.
This promises to be one of the most expensive and closely fought races of the cycle, and the Senate race could potentially aid Democratic turnout, which is typically poor here in midterms. It's a Toss Up.
TX-23: Will Hurd (R) - West: San Antonio and El Paso suburbs
Lean Republican. Despite sitting in a 68 percent Latino seat that voted for Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 46 percent, Hurd remains an elusive Democratic target. The African-American former undercover CIA agent hung on by a point in 2016 but has frequently broken with his party, calling President Trump's proposed wall "the most expensive and least effective way to secure the border" (the 23rd CD takes in most of the Mexico border) and voted against the GOP healthcare bill last May.
Air Force veteran Gina Ortiz Jones, who has endorsements from EMILY's List and VoteVets, dominated the Democratic primary in May. Ortiz Jones, who would be Texas's first lesbian member of Congress, served in Iraq and later as a trade adviser in the Obama administration. Her story of serving under don't-ask, don't tell has rallied progressives and has helped her raise $2.2 million.
The candidate DC Democrats had touted most highly, cartel-busting federal prosecutor Jay Hulings, came in fourth place in the primary despite support from the Castro brothers. Ironically, Hulings may have been hurt by his lack of a Hispanic surname (despite the fact he's Hispanic on his mother's side), while Ortiz Jones may have been helped by her surname (even though she's Filipina-American, not Latina).
Hurd won reelection by a single point in 2016, but he's battle-tested and even Democrats admit Hurd ($2 million on hand) is a relentless campaigner. Democrats' biggest problem may be that Hispanic turnout tends to plummet in midterms, and Hispanic enthusiasm lags behind that of suburban professionals this year. Both parties' polls continue to show Hurd leading Ortiz Jones outside the margin of error.
TX-32: Pete Sessions (R) - North Dallas and suburbs: Richardson
Toss Up. Multiple Republican operatives familiar with Texas polling data are convinced GOP Rep. Pete Sessions (TX-32) enters the fall as the most vulnerable incumbent in the Lone Star State. The powerful House Rules Committee chair's rapidly moderating Dallas district voted for Hillary Clinton 48 percent to 47 percent in 2016. And despite serving as NRCC chair in 2010 and 2012, Sessions hasn't had a competitive race since 2004.
Moreover, Democrats' nominee offers a stark contrast to Sessions. In late May, civil rights attorney Colin Allred won the Democratic runoff with 70 percent of the vote. Allred was a star linebacker at Dallas's Hillcrest High School and went on to play for Baylor University and four seasons on special teams for the Tennessee Titans. Allred, a 35 year old African-American, is 28 years younger than the 11-term incumbent.
Allred has raised $1.9 million and will highlight his life story, including being raised by a poor single mother who taught in Dallas public schools (by contrast, Sessions is the son of a former FBI director), playing in the NFL and earning his law degree from the University of California, Berkeley. Democrats view Allred's profile as symbolic of this highly professional, suburban district that is almost 50 percent non-white.
Sessions had $1.8 million on hand at the end of June and as a former NRCC chair, he won't lack for money. His backers insist that even though he didn't have a Democratic opponent in 2016, he's prepared for a rigorous race this November.
At the NRCC, Sessions earned a reputation as a take-no-prisoners aggressor, but his team will work to soften his image as a hardline, pro-Trump partisan. Sessions will point to the tax cut bill as a boost for Dallas's high-tech corporate sector and will remind voters he procured funding to secure the failing Lake Lewisville Dam. He'll also highlight his outreach to the local Hispanic and Asian business communities.
Allred talks about helping small businesses and doesn't come across as a Sanders/Warren-style agitator. But Republicans will try to define him as a Berkeley-indoctrinated liberal who supports single-payer health care, gutting the tax cuts. They'll also note he's a close ally of failed 2014 gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis and worked in the Obama administration (he was briefly an assistant counsel under HUD Secretary Julian Castro).
The biggest challenge for Sessions may be rebuilding his own political brand after over a decade without a real race. Since Sessions defeated Democratic Rep. Martin Frost in a multi-million dollar 2004 affair, thousands of professional workers have moved from blue states to the northern Dallas suburbs and brought their political values with them. And suddenly, their only way to send a message to President Trump is on the congressional ballot. This will be one of the most expensive races in the country.
UT-04: Mia Love (R) - Central: southern Salt Lake City suburbs
Lean Republican. In her first run for Congress in 2012, Love underperformed GOP nominee Mitt Romney by 19 points and lost by less than 1,000 votes. In 2016, tables turned: she took 54 percent while Trump took just 39 percent in the district. Although Love has worked hard to change her initial reputation as a spotlight seeker, Trump's unpopularity in Utah keeps Democrats in the game.
In a major coup for Democrats, Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams is running in 2018. McAdams, 43, won the top county office in 2012 and 2016 and already represents 85 percent of UT-04 (although UT-04 doesn't include Salt Lake City and is much more Republican than the county). McAdams has built a unique brand as a wonky, nerdy Mormon Democrat and cultivated relationships with Republican mayors.
McAdams, an attorney, is focusing on local needs like infrastructure funding and paints Love as an inaccessible obstructionist who has sided with the Tea Party over Salt Lake's business community on issues like the reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank. He also contends he'll be harder to pigeonhole as "Nancy Pelosi's dream" than Love's previous opponents because voters already know him as a pragmatist.
However, McAdams's most press-worthy episode of his time in office could cut both ways. Last March, McAdams's consideration of several possible suburban sites for new homeless shelters drew intense ire at town hall meetings. Later, it was revealed McAdams had been moved to act on the issue after posing as a homeless person and living in a particularly distressed shelter for three days and two nights.
A January poll conducted by Dan Jones & Associates for the Salt Lake Tribune found Love leading McAdams 47 percent to 42 percent. At the end of March, she had $915,000 on hand to McAdams's $834,000. Love is still the favorite, but this is shaping up to be a competitive race.
VA-02: Scott Taylor (R) - Southeast: Virginia Beach, Eastern Shore
Lean Republican. Taylor's strong profile as a Navy SEAL and his political base as a state delegate from Virginia Beach helped him unseat GOP Rep. Randy Forbes in the 2016 primary after court-ordered redistricting forced Forbes into an unfamiliar seat. But as President Trump carried this seat by just 48 percent to 45 percent that fall, Taylor didn't have a serious Democratic opponent. That won't be the case in 2018.
Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam carried this district by four points in November 2017, and Taylor admits it was a wake up call. Taylor doesn't come across as an ideologue, but he still isn't well-defined. Democrats knew they needed to find a veteran in this military-dependent district, and they got one in former Naval Surface Warfare Officer and nuclear engineer Elaine Luria, who also owns a plaster mermaid-oriented gifts business.
Luria, who is one of three female Naval Academy graduates from the early 1990s, has a trailblazing story and has raised $1.3 million to Taylor's $2.8 million. So far, most private polls have shown her down single digits. But this month, Taylor committed an unforced error when his campaign staff was caught forging petitions to get 2016 Democratic nominee Shaun Brown on the ballot as an independent "spoiler."
Taylor says he never gave permission to his staff to circulate the petitions, but Democrats are accusing him of dirty tricks and suing to get Brown's name off the ballot. Brown, an African-American, accuses Democrats of trying to disenfranchise her. It's still tied up in courts (and Brown is scheduled to go on trial in October for defrauding the government over a summer meal program for children).
Although Democrats are fired up over the forgery kerfuffle, t's still not clear that voters fully understand it or hold it against Taylor. Taylor's bigger problems could be his votes for the GOP healthcare and tax bills and the lack of a competitive statewide race to drive GOP voters to the polls. It's in Lean Republican for now, but this race has potential to join the Toss Up column.
VA-05: OPEN (Garrett) (R) - South central: Danville, Charlottesville
Lean Republican. If there's one 2018 race stranger than fiction, it's probably the one for the Southside and Charlottesville 5th CD. In May, GOP Rep. Tom Garrett announced he would retire to seek treatment for alcoholism amid reports he had sent staffers on inappropriate personal errands. Then a few weeks later, a hastily called GOP convention nominated retired Air Force intelligence officer Denver Riggleman, who owns a Nelson County distillery.
Riggleman ran a short-lived campaign for governor last year and has a libertarian streak. He says he'll join the Freedom Caucus, but supports decriminalizing marijuana and opposes the locally polarizing Atlantic Pipeline project. However, Riggleman is now best known for a recently-deleted Facebook author page appearing to promote a self-published book titled "The Mating Habits of Bigfoot and Why Women Want Him."
Riggleman addressed the firestorm head on, attributing his literary musings to his offbeat sense of humor. After all, his Instagram account profile reads: "Own a distillery, consult on DoD matters and had a fun run for Governor. Love whiskey, hate tyranny and embrace liberty. Whiskey Rebellion always!" That account, since set to private, was once peppered with images of what can only be described as Bigfoot-themed erotic art.
Meanwhile, Democrats nominated a controversial author of their own: Leslie Cockburn, a former correspondent for PBS's Frontline and the mother of actress Olivia Wilde. Republicans highlight Cockburn's past writings -- including a 1991 book she and her husband wrote, "Dangerous Liaison: The Inside Story of the U.S.-Israeli Covert Relationship" -- as evidence she's too extreme - even "anti-Semitic."
Cockburn, who lives on a farm in rural Rappahannock County and has been a progressive activist against uranium mines and energy pipelines, vehemently calls the charges ridiculous and touts support from the district's Jewish community. But in a rural, 53 percent Trump district that's very geographically polarized, it shouldn't be hard for Republicans to portray her as an out-of-touch elitist.
Cockburn ended June with a $482,000 to $207,000 cash advantage. Republicans believe they're better off without Garrett, while some Democrats are wishing they had a more broadly appealing candidate to take advantage of the situation (Iraq veteran R.D. Huffstetler fell short at the convention). The fundamentals favor Riggleman, but the lack of a competitive statewide race and the nominees' oddities make it unpredictable.
VA-07: Dave Brat (R) - Central: Richmond suburbs, Culpeper
Toss Up. In 2014, Brat turned the political world upside-down when he upset House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the GOP primary by taking a hard line on illegal immigration. But four years later, he's at risk of getting swept out by a Democratic wave in a rapidly moderating district anchored by the professional Richmond suburbs. After courts redrew the 7th CD in 2016, President Trump took just 50 percent here, down from Mitt Romney's 56 percent in 2012.
In June, former undercover CIA operative Abigail Spanberger crushed a well-funded Democratic primary opponent with 73 percent of the vote in an impressive display of grassroots support. Spanberger grew up in Henrico County (the 7th CD) writing a diary in code. As a pragmatic woman with a non-political resume, she could offer a problematic contrast for Brat, a Freedom Caucus member who complained last year about women "in my grill" at town halls.
The top of the ticket could also be a big problem for Brat. Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine is highly popular in the Richmond suburbs, while ultra-conservative GOP Senate nominee Corey Stewart is a highly polarizing figure who lost the 7th CD 61 percent to 33 percent in his primary. In 2017, well-funded GOP gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie carried the 7th CD by four points, but Stewart isn't competitive and Brat could suffer if Republicans stay home.
Brat, who has shied away from questions about Stewart, has never had to run in a competitive general election before. He's mended fences with GOP leadership and is running with the NRCC's active help. Spanberger has enjoyed help from EMILY's List and raised $903,000 by May. Ironically, the white collar Republicans in the West End Richmond suburbs who long supported Cantor could be the swing voters in this race.
VA-10: Barbara Comstock (R) - DC exurbs: McLean, Manassas, Winchester
Lean Democratic. Two-term GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10) is a tough, resilient campaigner who has persevered as the prosperous Northern Virginia suburbs have zoomed away from her party in the Trump era. In 2016, she won reelection by six points while Hillary Clinton carried the seat 52 percent to 42 percent. But today, she's probably the single most vulnerable Republican in the House.
Democrats got what they wanted when state Sen. Jennifer Wexton comfortably won her primary in June, taking 42 percent to former State Department official Alison Friedman's 23 percent. Wexton, a former domestic violence prosecutor, is a proven vote-getter in Loudoun County, home to nearly half the 10th CD's residents (in 2016, Comstock was able to portray her opponent as a wealthy DC carpetbagger).
Meanwhile, in the GOP primary, Comstock took an underwhelming 61 percent against conservative veteran and self-described inspirational speaker Shak Hill, who raised $245,000 and attacked Comstock for calling on Trump to step aside as the GOP nominee in fall 2016. Hill narrowly beat Comstock in the Shenandoah Valley, indicating weak enthusiasm for Comstock in the most conservative region of the 10th CD.
Moreover, Prince William County Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart, an incendiary anti-immigration and pro-Confederate monuments activist, narrowly won the GOP nomination to face Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, 45 percent to 43 percent. Stewart's nomination could alienate independents, depress Republican interest in the Senate race and allow Kaine to run up the score in the 10th CD, compounding Comstock's challenge.
It's difficult to overstate how rapidly the fast-growing 10th CD's politics have shifted. It's the second most college-educated GOP-held district in the country, and 37 percent of its residents are non-white. In 2011, Republicans drew it to elect one of their own. But in 2017 Democrat Ralph Northam annihilated Ed Gillespie 56 percent to 43 percent here. Down-ballot, the "blue wave" swept out six overlapping incumbent GOP state delegates.
Unless Wexton commits an egregious error, this race may be close to over. A Monmouth Poll in late June showed Wexton leading Comstock 49 percent to 39 percent, and despite an NRCC airtime reservation, several Republicans privately express doubts about spending millions on expensive DC television trying to save this seat when there are far cheaper routes to holding the majority.
WA-03: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Southwest: Vancouver, Longview, Centralia
Lean Republican. Herrera Beutler has generally been popular in this traditionally purple district: she was the subject of favorable news coverage after her daughter was born without kidneys and survived the typically fatal condition in 2013. She also has a relatively moderate voting record, including voting against the GOP's healthcare bill last May. But she sits in a substantially suburban seat President Trump won just 50 percent to 43 percent in 2016.
Herrera Beutler hasn't had a real race since 2010, but the preliminary August 7 top-two primary results are a wake up call: she took just 42 percent to WSU-Vancouver law professor Carolyn Long's 35 percent, and Republicans cumulatively out-voted Democrats by just 51 percent to 49 percent. Long had raised $662,000 to Herrera Beutler's $1.5 million by mid-July. This onetime long shot has developed into a genuinely competitive race.
WA-05: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Eastern third: Spokane, Walla Walla
Lean Republican. In this political climate, problems for Republicans are popping up in surprising places. House GOP Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the only female member of the House GOP leadership elite since 2012, has been a high-profile supporter of the party's agenda. But as that agenda's popularity has faded, her leadership status has turned into a liability.
The 5th CD gave President Trump a 52 percent to 39 percent edge in 2016. Yet support for McMorris Rodgers after 14 years in office may not be that deep. Eastern Washington has an anti-Washington, DC, streak: in the 1994 GOP wave, it threw out the sitting Democratic Speaker Tom Foley. And in 2016, McMorris Rodgers garnered a very weak 42 percent in the August open primary, while 15 percent went to Tea Party Republican Tom Horne, who railed against her as the "establishment."
In this August's open primary, McMorris Rodgers took just 49 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Democratic former state Sen. Lisa Brown. Two other Republicans combined for three percent, while another candidate appearing on the ballot as a "Trump Populist" took three percent. McMorris Rodgers's showing wasn't as disastrous as it looked on primary night, but it shouldn't make her feel secure either.
Brown, a former state legislator and university administrator who most recently helped get the Washington State University-Spokane health sciences campus off the ground, is Democrats' first credible nominee in a long time. She was a state legislator between 1993 and 2013 (including as state Senate majority leader) and has taught economics and leadership classes at Eastern Washington University and Gonzaga University.
Polls conducted by both parties all year have pegged McMorris Rodgers under 50 percent and leading Brown by mid-single digits, lining up with the primary results. The Congressional Leadership Fund, backed by Speaker Paul Ryan, opened up a field office in the 5th CD to shore up McMorris Rodgers. After a slow start, the incumbent ramped up her campaign operation and has raised $3.7 million to Brown's $2.1 million.
McMorris Rodgers's saving grace may be Brown. Unlike most Democrats lighting the grassroots ablaze this year, Brown is a longtime politician with a long political paper trail to attack. McMorris Rodgers allies will try to neutralize Brown's hits on the GOP tax bill by going after Brown's very liberal voting record in Olympia, including fighting to raise taxes and tuition hikes. Brown was also part of a state-organized fact-finding delegation to Cuba in 2016 and commented positively on Cuba's healthcare research programs.
After years of sleepy races, McMorris Rodgers is in for a contentious fight. Democrats will accuse her of having "gone DC" for having relocated her family to DC earlier this decade. And midterms are more often than not referenda on the party in power, which could complicate the incumbent's messaging. But Washington's system of all-mail elections should also help mitigate Democrats' enthusiasm advantage. McMorris Rodgers is still the narrow favorite.
WA-08: OPEN (Reichert) (R) - Cascades: Auburn, Ellensburg, Chelan
Toss Up. GOP Rep. Dave Reichert's retirement is one of the most valuable for Democrats in the country. Over seven terms, Democrats just couldn't crack the code against Reichert, known as the King County Sheriff who caught the "Green River Killer" - not even in the 2006 or 2008 waves. Now, Democrats have an excellent pickup opportunity in a district that mixes Seattle suburbs with rural counties east of the Cascades and voted for Hillary Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent.
President Trump's unpopularity makes Republicans the underdogs to hold the seat. But Republicans probably landed their best-known possible candidate in Dino Rossi, the commercial real estate businessman and former state senator who lost an infamous 2004 gubernatorial recount by 129 votes. Rossi also narrowly lost races for governor in 2008 and for Senate in 2010, but each time he carried the current 8th CD. Rossi's money and name recognition give Republicans a fighting chance.
In the August 7 top-two primary, Rossi finished first with 43 percent, running strongest in the rural counties east of the Cascades. Democratic pediatrician Kim Schrier took 19 percent, narrowly beating out attorney Jason Rittereiser (18 percent) and former CDC official Shannon Hader (13 percent) to advance to November. She ran strongest in King County's Seattle suburbs. In a good sign for Democrats, their candidates combined for 50 percent of the vote to 47 percent for Republicans.
Rossi is universally known and had $1.8 million on hand at the end of June, but he may once again be running at the wrong place and time. Schrier ($938,000 on hand) grew up in Los Angeles but has owned a pediatrics practice in the Seattle suburbs for 16 years and says Reichert's refusal to stand up to President Trump on healthcare inspired her to run. Her primary ads depicted her in her medical practice decrying "Donald Trump and Dino Rossi's attacks on Planned Parenthood."
As a first-time candidate, Schrier could make headway by running as a doctor against the GOP health care bill and labeling Rossi a career politician. Democrats are also optimistic they can cast the Club for Growth-backed Rossi as too far right for the 8th CD and shed new light on his real estate dealings. It's also been 28 years since a president's party has defended an open House seat the president failed to carry two years earlier. It's a Toss Up, but that may understate Democrats' chances.
WV-03: OPEN (Jenkins) (R) - South: Huntington, Beckley
Lean Republican. A coal country district that voted 73 percent to 23 percent for President Trump might sound like mission impossible for Democrats. Yet this race has turned into one of the wildest of the cycle. A June Monmouth University poll showed Trump-voting former Army paratrooper and Democratic state Sen. Richard Ojeda leading state Del. Carol Miller 43 percent to 41 percent, and GOP operatives admit the poll isn't a fluke.
No district in the country is quite like West Virginia's 3rd CD: despite Trump's rout, Democrats still retain a 50 percent to 27 percent voter registration edge here. And in 2018, popular Sen. Joe Manchin will be topping the Democratic ticket in 2018, not Hillary Clinton. Most of all, Ojeda has a reputation as a human wrecking ball, while Miller is wealthy evangelical who isn't from the coalfields and lacks the Democrat's charisma.
Ojeda, a retired Army paratrooper who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and has 36 tattoos, first ran against 28-year Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall in 2014, taking 34 percent in the primary after spending virtually no money. In 2016, he went on to win a state senate seat with 59 percent while Trump carried the district with 78 percent (and Ojeda's vote). In Charleston, he passed medical marijuana legislation and became a folk hero during the teacher's strike.
Miller defeated six other GOP candidates in the May GOP primary with 24 percent. Miller is a bison farmer and 12-year legislator from Huntington whose family owns the well-known Dutch Miller auto dealership chain (and her father served in Congress from Ohio). She loaned her campaign $200,000 to run ads playing up her sponsorship of a bill to make the Bible the state book and her pledge to "cut the bull" in DC.
Democrats believe Ojeda can win if he can make it a personality contest between a rabble-rousing "badass" war hero and the wealthy Miller, whom Ojeda will allege has invested in pharmaceutical companies that have contributed to West Virginia's opioid crisis. But to do so, Ojeda will need far more money: he had just $162,000 on hand at the end of June, while Miller has demonstrated the capacity to self-fund.
Ojeda says he won't back Nancy Pelosi for speaker. But in late June, the DCCC named Ojeda to its Red to Blue program, and he's begun to accept their fundraising help, which could give Miller some fodder. At this point, there's no doubt this a highly competitive race, and the biggest unknown variables are Miller's eventual financial advantage and Trump's willingness to personally engage (tweet?) on Miller's behalf.
WI-01: OPEN (Ryan) (R) - Southeast corner: Racine, Kenosha
Lean Republican. Most of DC is obsessed with who will succeed outgoing Rep. Paul Ryan as House Speaker, but plenty of people in Wisconsin are more concerned with who will replace him after 20 years in office. Democrats now have a much more legitimate shot at winning this suburban Milwaukee seat and a financial head start. But Ryan's handpicked successor may begin the fall with far less personal baggage than the Democratic nominee.
Democratic Army veteran and former iron worker Randy Bryce, perhaps better known as the "Iron Stache," has been a national phenomenon on MSNBC and in left-leaning online fundraising circles for months. He ended June with $2.1 million on hand and beat pro-impeachment Janesville School Board member Cathy Myers 60 percent to 40 percent in the August 14 primary. But he has also been arrested nine times, including a DUI offense, and has been cited for failure to pay child support.
On the GOP side, UW Board of Regents member and former Ryan staffer Bryan Steil won the primary with 52 percent to 14 percent for his nearest opponent (anti-Semitic 2016 Ryan primary challenger Paul Nehlen took 11 percent). Steil is a 37-year-old manufacturing attorney and hails from a prominent Janesville political family. Ryan endorsed Steil on June 18, quickly helped him raise $659,000, and will be very active on the campaign trail on his behalf.
Running against the speaker allowed Bryce to gain a national following and raise $6 million, but he's also burned through cash quickly (he had $2.1 million on hand in June), and Ryan's exit takes away his single biggest point to donors. Republicans are acutely aware of how disastrously symbolic a loss here would be, and the Ryan-backed Congressional Leadership Fund is willing to spend whatever it takes to pulverize Bryce.
The 1st CD also might not be the blue-collar bastion Bryce's profile might imply: most voters here are Republican suburbanites who were happy voting for Ryan for years, and Steil's profile could be a good fit. President Trump carried the seat 52 percent to 42 percent in 2016, although Democrats narrowly cast more primary ballots in August. For now, this race remains in the Lean Republican column.
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