One would be crazy to make a hard and fast prediction about what will happen in the 2010 midterm elections given the constant developments in campaigns, and the fact that 49 states have not yet reached their filing deadline. Macro-political factors like the trajectory of the U.S. economy, progress in Afghanistan and Iraq, and other news events large and small make predicting what will happen a little less than a year from now next to impossible.
That doesn't mean, however, that it isn't helpful to benchmark how things may appear at various points in time and to discuss one's best guess, based on what is currently known, about what is likely to happen in the House, Senate and gubernatorial races.
Our House Editor, David Wasserman, estimates, based on what we know today, that Republicans will make a 20-30 seat net gain in the House. A month or so ago, he judged that it would be a 15-25 seat pickup for the GOP. To hit a 41-seat net gain, which would flip control of the House, would necessitate more Democratic retirements in tough districts. There would need to be perhaps seven to ten more members like John Tanner and Bart Gordon of Tennessee, Dennis Moore of Kansas and Brian Baird of Washington.
Our Senate/Governor Editor, Jennifer Duffy, currently estimates that the range of outcomes in the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans. In the gubernatorial races, she sees the same likely outcome, a wash to a GOP gain of three seats.
Wasserman and Duffy are the specialists and the Cook Political Report experts on these races. They determine what the official projections are, which will be updated periodically as the campaigns develop. As they are the ones who are interviewing candidates, and talking with their campaign teams and consultants on a daily basis, along with state and local party leaders, they establish the party line for the Cook Political Report.
My own view, separate from the Cook Political Report's estimates, mirrors Wasserman's current 20-30 seat net gain for Republicans in the House, but in the Senate, I take a bit more aggressive posture. I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.
The difference between my view and Duffy's is that I tend to place a greater weight on national dynamics while she is focused much more on the developments within the state and the races, taking into account current polling and competitive primaries for both parties in various races while also factoring in a national political environment that is currently more favorable to Republicans.
Obviously much can and much will happen between now and November 2nd, 2010 and our estimates will undoubtedly change dozens of times over the next year.
We also invite you to watch National Journal's webcast of yesterday's breakfast discussion with myself, Amy Walter, editor of the Hotline, Fred Yang, partner in Garin-Hart-Yang, and Bill McInturff, partner in Public Opinion Strategies.
We wish you all a warm and happy holiday and New Year.
Charlie Cook
