The Cook Political Report | The insider's choice for election analysis

Vermont Governor: Baseline Analysis

May 17, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: In 2010, this race to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Jim Douglas was among the closest in the country. Democrat Peter Shumlin eked out a one-point victory over then-GOP Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. Given how close the race was and that Shumlin must run for a second, two-year term in 2012, one would think that this race would be on Republicans’ target list. Instead, it looks like one of the safest gubernatorial seats that Democrats will defend in November.
Read on

AZ-08: Giffords Special Election Heats Up

May 17, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: It didn't take long for a special election prompted by sad and highly personal circumstances to enter the vortex of the national partisan back-and-forth. With early voting beginning today for the June 12 special election between 2010 Republican nominee Jesse Kelly and Democratic former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords aide Ron Barber, both party committees and affiliated outside groups have swarmed the Tucson market. While neither party disputes that the race is very close in private polling, the contest will come down to whether voters see their choice as picking a logical successor to Giffords or sending a national message to President Obama. While we rate the race as a Toss Up, a Kelly win would be more of an upset.
Read on

Nevada: New District Baselines

May 17, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: Just over three decades ago, Nevada had just one Congressional seat. Next year, it will send four members to the House. And while Democrats hold just one of Nevada's three seats today, a new court-appointed special master's map gives them a shot at winning three of four in November. Democrats' initial problem was that they had too many ambitious candidates and not enough seats. But now primary fields have been cleared for the labor-backed Las Vegas trio of former Rep. Dina Titus (NV-01), state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (NV-03) and state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (NV-04). Meanwhile, the NRCC's counter-strategy is clear: completely eviscerate Oceguera and Horsford before the state's presidential battleground gets too noisy.
Read on

Indiana Senate: Lugar’s Loss is Democrats’ Gain

May 10, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: As expected, six-term incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar lost the Republican primary on Tuesday to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Less expected was Mourdock’s impressive 61-percent to 39-percent margin of victory. Neither party wasted any time moving on to the general election. Republicans embraced Mourdock as their nominee, while Democrats sought to capitalize on Lugar’s defeat and promote their standard-bearer, U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly. Indiana is not an easy state for Democrats, particularly in a presidential year, but Mourdock has provided them with some arguments that they hope will work to Donnelly’s advantage. While this race is only 48 hours old and both candidates need to prove themselves on the larger general election playing field, Democrats see an opportunity that might not have existed had Lugar won the primary. As such, the race moves to the Lean Republican column.
Read on

New Jersey: New District Baselines

May 10, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: It's almost tradition in the Garden State for the court-appointed independent tie-breaker on the state's bipartisan redistricting commission to pick the GOP-drawn Republican map. This time, Republicans were especially clever in putting the hometown of Democratic Rep. Steve Rothman in GOP Rep. Scott Garrett's 5th CD, knowing that Rothman was likely to opt for a Democratic primary against fellow Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell. Despite that titanic June 5 clash, Democrats do have one pickup opportunity, against freshman GOP Rep. Jon Runyan in November. On the Republican side, moderate Rep. Leonard Lance is a favorite to beat back a primary rematch.
Read on

Latest Rhodes Cook Letter Now Available

May 10, 2012
The April issue of The Rhodes Cook Letter is now available to Cook Political Report subscribers. This issue examines the recently concluded competitive portion of the Republican presidential nominating campaign and the beginning of the congressional primary season. Also included are several charts and graphs on how President Obama compares with previous presidents on the economy and in polls. Click here to read the latest issue.
Read on