The Cook Political Report | The insider's choice for election analysis

Florida GOP Map Sets Off Land Speculation

February 2, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: Florida's initial GOP-drawn map is sure to draw a fierce legal challenge from Democrats and backers of the "Fair Districts" amendments, and that's why we have yet to add ratings for the proposed districts into our database. But the map's release set off a quick chain reaction of candidate chess moves that have benefited the NRCC's goal of protecting as many Republican incumbents as possible. If anything like the legislature's map holds, Republicans would have a decent chance of protecting all 19 of their current seats, and they might even have glimmers of hope in each of two new districts.
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North Carolina Governor: Baseline Analysis

February 2, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: Until Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue announced last week that she would not run for re-election this year, she was the most vulnerable incumbent of either party seeking a second term this cycle. The state’s sagging economy, combined with Perdue’s largely unsuccessful battles with the Republican-controlled legislature and a series of missteps of her own making, rendered her the underdog this fall. She would have faced former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. McCrory challenged Perdue in 2008 when this seat was open. It was a close race, but Perdue benefitted from a favorable political environment for Democrats and the vast resources that the Obama presidential campaign poured into the state. She beat McCrory, 50 percent to 47 percent. A Libertarian candidate took the remaining 3 percent. By all accounts, Perdue might not have been as lucky this year. Every poll taken in the race showed her trailing McCrory and her approval ratings were upside down. While some Democratic strategists say that there was a path to victory for the Governor, they admit that it would have produced a very negative and personal race. Now that Perdue is not running, Democrats are in search of a new candidate to be their nominee. The filing deadline is February 29, leaving potential candidates very little time to assess their chances in the race. While Perdue was very vulnerable, we had the race in the Toss Up column. As longtime readers know, incumbents don’t usually move beyond the Toss Up column in the direction of the other party – at least this far out from the election. With Perdue out of the race, it moves to the Lean Republican column.
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Dissecting the DCCC's "Red to Blue" Districts

January 26, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman takes a look at Democrats' newly rolled out list of 36 initial target districts, promoted to donors and press as "Red to Blue." At the outset of the election year, Democrats' math is very difficult, but not impossible. Democrats, who stand at 193 seats now, are likely to lose between 10 and 15 adversely redistricted incumbents and three to five open seats. That means they probably need to win between 35 to 45 newly created and GOP-held seats for a majority. Democrats' list of 36 includes many very promising candidates with diverse resumes and distinct appeal in their districts. But Democrats know they'll need to lengthen the list to have a shot. House Democrats have enjoyed a pretty strong start to the year. Fresh off the House GOP's payroll tax setback, Democrats are confident they will be able to effectively link more vulnerable Republicans to the Tea Party, even if the overwhelming majority of GOP freshmen are far from card-carrying members. President Obama's uptick amid the rancorous GOP nomination race lifts a little bit of the burden off many Democrats, and state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici appears poised to win a special election in Oregon's 1st CD. Now, Democrats' task will be to transform these "green shoots" into more momentum and money for their candidates.
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Michigan Senate: A Potentially Vulnerable Incumbent

January 26, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: When we first wrote about this race last April, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow was showing some signs of vulnerability. Her job approval numbers were upside down and she hovered at or below the 50-percent mark in hypothetical general election match ups. Michigan’s economy was still stuck in its long economic downturn. Working in Stabenow’s favor, though, was that Republicans didn’t have a first-tier candidate to challenge her. Many of the likely suspects, including former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and the Republican members of the U.S. House delegation, had all taken passes on the race. Fast forward nine months, and the race looks different today. Stabenow’s poll numbers haven’t seen any meaningful improvement and the state’s economy hasn’t made meaningful progress toward recovery (the unemployment rate was 9.3 percent in December). Now, though, Republicans have two candidates who can give the incumbent a competitive race in November. As a result, the race is moving to the Lean Democratic column.
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Giffords' Resignation Leaves Big Question Mark in AZ-08

January 26, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' moving farewell from Congress to focus on her recovery makes any contemplation of the political fallout from her resignation feel a world away. While it's premature to put a hard and fast rating on this traditionally middle-of-the-road Tucson seat (now renumbered as AZ-02 in our database), we are adding the vacancy to the Toss Up column as a parking place, until the field of candidates shapes up over the next month. What we do know is that Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer must schedule a special primary for April and a special general election for June.
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