The Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

April Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Polls

Results from the April 17-20 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (April 22, 2008)

Cross Tabs from the April 17-20 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (April 22, 2008)

Combined Cross Tabs from the April 17-20 and March 6-9 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Polls (April 22, 2008)

March Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Polls

March 17, 2008 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Briefing Presentation (March 20, 2008)

Results from the March 6-9 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (March 13, 2008)

Cross Tabs from the March 6-9 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (March 13, 2008)

Combined Cross Tabs from the March 6-9 and February 28-March 2 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Polls (March 13, 2008)

Results from the February 28-March 2 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (March 4, 2008)

Cross Tabs from the February 28-March 2 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (March 4, 2008)

February Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the January 31-February 2 Cook Political Report/RT Stratgies Poll (February 4, 2008)

Cross Tabs from the January 31- February 2 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (February 4, 2008)

November Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the November 8-11 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (November 14, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the November 8-11 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (November 14, 2007)

Combined Cross Tabs from the November 8-11, September 13-16, and August 2-5 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (November 14, 2007)

October Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the October 18-21 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (October 24, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the October 18-21 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (October 24, 2007)

Combined Cross Tabs from the October 18-21, June 21-24, and June 15-17 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (October 24, 2007)

September Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the September 13-16 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (September 20, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the September 13-16 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (September 20, 2007)

Combined Cross Tabs from the September 13-16, August 2-5, June 21-23, June 15-17, and May 11-13 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (September 20, 2007)

August Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the August 2-5 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (August 7, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the August 2-5 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (August 7, 2007)

Combined Cross Tabs from the August 2-5, June 21-23, June 15-17, May 11-13, and April 27-29 (August 7, 2007)

June Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the June 21-23 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 27, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the June 21-23 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 27, 2007)

Combined Cross Tabs from the June 21-23 and June 15-17 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 27, 2007)

Combined Cross Tabs from the June 21-23, June 15-17, May 11-13 and April 27-29 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 27, 2007)

PowerPoint Presentation on the June 21-23, June 15-17, May 11-13 and April 27-29 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Polls (June 27, 2007)

Results from the June 15-17 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 18, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the June 15-17 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 18, 2007)

May Cook Political Report /RT Strategies Poll

Results from the May 11-13 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 16, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the May 11-13 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 16, 2007)

Combined Cross Tabs from the April 27-29 and May 11-13 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 16, 2007)

April Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the April 27-29 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 4, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the April 22-29 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 4, 2007)

Results from the April 20-22 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 4, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the April 20-22 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 4, 2007)

Results from the March 29- April 1 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown(April 4, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the March 29-April 1 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll(April 4, 2007)

Powerpoint Presentation on April Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

February Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the February 15-18 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (February 23, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the February 15-18 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (February 23, 2007)

January Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the January 18-21 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (January 23, 2007)

Cross Tabs from the January 18-21 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (January 23, 2007)

December 14-17 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the Dec. 14-17 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (December 20, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the Dec. 14-17 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (December 20, 2006)

Charlie Cook's Analysis:

The most important finding in the December 14-17 Cook Political Report /RT Strategies Poll is that there has been a significant increase in the number of Democrats who see Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as electable if she runs for President in 2008, which confirms our mid-November findings.   Our view has long been that with between 66 and 80 percent of Democrats having a favorable opinion of Clinton, her challenge in winning the nomination is to persuade her own party that she could win a general election.   If she was deemed electable, it would be very difficult seeing how she wouldn't win the Democratic nomination.

Four times in the last year we have asked the following question of Democratic voters:   "Thinking about Hillary Clinton, which of the following two statements comes closer to your opinion: If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, I am worried that she cannot win the election for President, or if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, she'll have as good a chance as any Democratic nominee to be elected," with the sequence of the two statements alternated.  

In both our February and August surveys, Democrats were very evenly divided on Clinton's electability.   In February, 47 percent of Democrats thought that she would have as good a chance as any to win in November, 46 percent worried that she couldn't win a general election.   In August, the numbers were very similar but roughly reversed, with 49 percent worried that she couldn't win a general election and 46 percent who thought that she would have as good a chance as any.

But in our first post-midterm election survey, conducted November 9-12, the percentage that thought she would have as good a chance as any to win moved 14 points higher than August, from 46 to 60 percent, while those who worried that she couldn't win a general dropped 13 points, from 49 to 36 percent.   The new December poll showed that among the 350 Democratic voters interviewed, the same percentage, 60 percent, thought that she would have as good a chance as any, and 33 percent worried that she couldn't win a general, three points lower than November.

Our view is that prior to the midterm election, Democrats were demoralized, perhaps cautious or even pessimistic about their chances in 2008 after having lost two consecutive presidential elections and House and Senate seats in two consecutive elections.   But, winning majorities in Congress and the governorships put a little starch in their shorts, and made them more bullish or optimistic about Clinton's chances.

In general election matchups, Democratic optimism is reflected, though there may well be other things at work as well.   Last February, our Cook Political Repot/RT Strategies polling showed that among all registered voters, McCain had a 12-point lead, 48 to 46 percent over Clinton.   Our April survey had the lead cut to nine points, 46 to 37 percent, and dropping to seven points in June, 47 to 40 percent.   Last month, McCain's lead had dropped to just two points, 44 to 42 percent, and the newest poll, to a single point, 40 to 39 percent.   Most likely some of this drop in McCain's support, from 48 to 46 to 47 to 44 to 40 percent, is a reflection of the GOP brand being damaged over the last year.   But his support among Democrats has dropped from 17 percent in February to ten percent in the newest poll.   This may be due to McCain's repositioning more to the right in an effort to lock down the GOP nomination, but also perhaps fallout from his strong support for a continued U.S. effort in Iraq, a view not widely held among Democratic voters.

Another question sought to put public attitudes toward the war in Iraq on a four-point linear spectrum, ranging from sending in more troops on one extreme to a timetable to get most troops out by the end of 2008 on the other, with keeping the same number of troops and a gradual wind-down as the two options in between.   Twenty-one percent sought to "send more troops in now and finish the job," another 13 percent agreed with the view that the U.S. should "keep the number of troops the same, and find a new strategy to finish the job," for a total of 34 percent for one 'stay the course' option or the other.   The largest group, 36 percent, chose the next course, to "begin to wind down U.S. involvement and hand the job over to the government of Iraq," and an additional 24 percent chose the option to "set a timetable to get most U.S. troops out of Iraq by the end of 2008," for a total of 60 percent supporting one or the other 'get out' strategy.   The remaining seven percent were not sure or refused to answer.

Other questions in the new survey deal with what a three-way match up might look like between Clinton as the Democratic nominee, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as the GOP nominee and McCain as an independent (an unlikely but certainly interesting possibility).   And finally, a hypothetical match up between an older candidate, with experience in government and a military background (aka McCain) and a younger candidate with fresh ideas seeking common ground across party lines (aka Barack Obama), just to see how that might play out, as Obama's name recognition is too low to truly measure his potential support.

November 9-12 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the Nov. 9-12 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (December 4, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the Nov. 9-12 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (December 4, 2006)

October 26-29 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the October 26-29 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (October 30, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the October 26-29 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (October 30, 2006)

BUSH JOB APPROVAL (Registered Voters)

BUSH JOB APPROVAL (Most Likely Voters)

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT (Registered Voters)

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT (Most Likely Voters)

October 19-22 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the October 19-22 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (October 23, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the October 19-22 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (October 23, 2006)

October 5-8 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the October 5-8 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (October 11, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the October 5-8 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (October 11, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the combined Sept. 21-24, 27-30 and Oct. 5-8 surveys Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (October 11, 2006)

Thom Riehle's Power Point Presentation for the Oct. 5-8 Poll (October 11, 2006)

September 27-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the September 27-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (October 1, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the September 27-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (October 1, 2006)

September 21-24 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the September 21-24 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (September 29, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the September 21-24 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (September 29, 2006)

August 25-27 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the August 25-27 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (Aug. 29, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the August 25-27 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (Aug. 29, 2006)

Thom Riehle and Steve Lombardo's Power Point Presentation of August 25-27 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (September 11, 2006)

July 28-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the July 28-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (Aug. 1, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the July 28-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (Aug. 1, 2006)

June 1-4 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the June 1-4 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (June 6, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the June 1-4 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 9, 2006)

Thom Riehle and Steve Lombardo's Power Point Presentation of June 1-4 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 9, 2006)

April 27-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the April 27-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (May 2, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the April 27-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 2, 2006)

Lance Tarrance and Thom Riehle's Power Point Presentation of April 27-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (May 2, 2006)

April 6-9 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Results from the April 6-9 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (April 11, 2006)

Cross Tabs from the Apr. 6-9 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (April 11, 2006)

February 23-26 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

In its coverage of the Dubai World Ports deal, NBC Nightly News cited the new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll‘s finding that 61 percent think that Congress should block the deal.

Results from the February 23-26 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (February 27, 2006)

January 22-25 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll
Results from the January 22-25 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (January 27, 2006)

Charlie Cook's Analysis of the Latest Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll
January 27, 2006

A just-completed Cook Political Report /RT Strategies national survey of 1,000 adults suggests that Americans have grown slightly more optimistic since last month and showed an improvement in President Bush's approval rating. Republicans in Congress, however, did not enjoy a corresponding rebound. Democrats had a 12-point advantage on the question of who voters would like to see control Congress - a one point improvement for Democrats since December.

The survey also found that Americans do not see one party as more corrupt than the other. An overwhelming majority of respondents - 73 percent - agreed with the statement that "politicians of both parties in Washington today are corrupt."   Still, given the public's increasing dissatisfaction with Congress and the fact that Republicans control the House, Senate and White House, incumbent Republicans are uniquely exposed on this issue.

The survey, taken January 22-25 by Republican Lance Tarrance and Democrat Thom Riehle,   partners in RT Strategies, showed 38 percent saying the country is headed in the right direction, up two points from last month, while 60 percent said they thought the country was on the wrong track, down a point from last month.   While these changes are not statistically significant, they are consistent with other recent data showing the country getting a bit more upbeat in mood.  

The President Bush's job approval rating jumped up five points from December to 47 percent, while disapproval dropped five points to 50 percent.   Although the 47 percent approval rating is somewhat higher than other very recent polls, the disapproval rating for President Bush found in the Cook Political Report /RT Strategies poll is similar to other recent national polls. For example, the Fox News and CBS News/ New York Times polls, taken roughly over the same time period, showed approval ratings for the President of 41 and 42 percent, respectively. Both showed disapproval ratings of 51 percent, almost exactly the same as the Cook Political Report /RT Strategies poll's 50 percent disapproval.   The Fox and CBS/Times polls reported higher undecided respondents than ours did.

A CNN/ USA Today /Gallup Poll taken last week pegged the President's approval rating at 43 percent,   a bit higher than Fox and CBS/Times, but somewhat lower than our poll. It also showed the President with a 54 percent disapproval rating.   Note that the two polls (Cook/RT and Gallup) with the highest approval ratings had the lowest number of undecided respondents.

Once several more polls come out, a clearer pattern may emerge that resolves these disparities. Our advice is always to take an average of all the major national polls before drawing firm conclusions.   The differences between a Presidential approval rating of just 41, 42 or 43 percent as Fox and the CBS/Times polls show and ours at 47 percent is relevant. The polls that showed the lower approval ratings are just 3-5 points above the President's trough of 38 percent in early November. An approval rating of 47 percent is a full nine points better than that low-point.

The President's improved standing in the Cook Political Report /RT Strategies poll came mostly from a sharp increase in approval since last month from independents and respondents between the ages of 18 and 34. To a lesser extent, he also gained among those with just a high school education, women, moderates and Democrats. Among Republicans, he actually dropped a statistically insignificant point.

Some may wonder why we are making such a   fuss about polls at this stage. First, polls are how we keep score between elections.   Second, a president's job approval numbers help to gauge the President's ability to get things done on Capitol Hill and to keep his party aligned behind him. When a president has a job approval rating in the 30s, he is in an area of unpopularity where he has severely diminished clout on Capitol Hill and many of his own party members very deliberately keep a distance between themselves and that President and Administration.   On the other hand, when a President is in the low-to-mid 40's, he's in Rodney Daingerfield territory - the late comedian whose shtick was based on "getting no respect."   This territory isn't toxic, as elected officials from his party aren't running away from him. Still, his clout on the Hill is diminished and legislative victories are hard to come by. In this age of party polarization, being in the high 40's means a President can be quite successful. Once a President gets above 50 percent, he's in the downright respectable category.  

Another point to keep in mind is that over the course of this Presidency, as noted by the top-notch economic and political analysis firm, International Strategy and Investment (ISI), there has been a strong correlation between gasoline prices and the President's approval ratings. This is important to keep in mind as gasoline prices have started to rise again and are projected to rise between 20 and 30 cents in the coming months. This could potentially take a toll on the President's numbers as they did back in October and early November when he dropped down to an average of 38 percent approval.   While there were certainly other factors at work as well during the late fall that contributed to the President's approval ratings slide, namely Hurricane Katrina, the ill-fated Supreme Court nomination of Harriett Miers and the indictment of Scooter Libby, gasoline prices are also a very important component. When gas prices start rising above $2.50 a gallon, whoever is in the White House can expect to take a hit.  

Interestingly, ISI notes that oil, which is currently trading at around $65 a barrel, was just $18 a barrel four years ago. It is likely to reach $80 before it returns to $50, with events in Iran playing a major factor.   Bottom line, any improvement that the President may be enjoying now could be short-lived   if gasoline prices do climb another 20-30 cents per gallon.

While the President may have enjoyed a bit of a rebound last month, Republicans in Congress did not.   When asked, "Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress this November, regardless of how you might plan to vote in your own Congressional district, which party would you like to see in control of Congress after the congressional elections in November--the Democrats or the Republicans (sequence rotated)," Democrats had a 12-point advantage, 51 to 39 percent, one point wider than last month.   Ninety-two percent of Republicans preferred a GOP controlled Congress, 95 percent of Democrats preferred their side in charge, but independents broke 49 percent Democrat to 28 percent Republican, a 21-point advantage for Democrats.

Even allowing for the usual five point skew in favor of Democrats that seems to exist in the generic congressional ballot test (comparing an average of the last round of poll results and the final national popular vote for the House), this still translates into a quite significant six or seven point Democratic advantage.   Of course it is important to note that there is not a direct relationship between the national popular House vote and the number of seats won by each party, particularly now with so many gerrymandered and few competitive districts.

One thing that is clear from the data is that the public perceives the scandals surrounding Washington as a Congressional, not a Republican, scandal. Though it is also true that even as a bi-partisan scandal, the GOP, with more seats up and the public recognizing that they are the party in control of Congress and the White House, has more to lose from the public's disaffection with Washington.

When asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement, "charges of corruption by some members of Congress against other members is just politics and is nothing new, 66 percent agreed (76 percent of Republicans, 68 percent of independents and 55 percent of Democrats), 31 percent disagreed (23 percent of Republicans, 28 percent of independents and 42 percent of Democrats).

One way to gauge the seriousness of the public's disaffection of Congress is to look at whether respondents agreed or disagreed with the proposition that, "Elected officials in Washington really care what people like me think."   Only 33 percent of Americans agreed with that statement, 65 percent disagreed. Not even a majority of Republicans agreed with the statement, with just 47 percent saying they agreed and 52 percent saying they disagreed. Of the independents, the most disaffected group, just 23 percent agreed (73 percent disagreed). Among Democrats,   31 percent agreed and 67 percent disagreed.   This should be a warning sign to incumbents, particularly incumbents in the majority party, they these independents have the potential to break very strongly against them.

When asked who was to blame for corruption in Washington, 73 percent chose the option that "politicians of both parties in Washington today are corrupt." Only 15 percent picked "Republicans who control Congress and the White House today are corrupt."   But lest Republicans get encouraged by that finding, when asked "if Democrats controlled the White House and Congress today, do you think that there would be more or less corruption in Washington," 38 percent said less corruption, 23 percent said more corruption, 29 percent volunteered "about the same", 11 percent said it depends or were not sure. Independents chose less corruption by a 31 to 12 margin.

The bottom line is that Americans see corruption in Washington as systemic, a problem for both parties. But, they also see Republicans, as the party in charge, as the bigger offenders. Were Democrats in charge today, the fingers would likely be pointed at them.

While the scandals in Washington are perceived today as bipartisan, there are some real liabilities out there for Republicans that could help to change that perception from bi-partisan to Republican

One factor that could alter the public's perception of these scandals would be if any high-profile Republicans are indicted on Federal corruption charges, such as former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

Another is the Valerie Plame-CIA leak scandal. Though this scandal has nothing to do with Congress, or for that matter corruption in a traditional sense, if another well-known White House official is indicted, such as Karl Rove, that could also feed into a change in perception.   

Finally, if say, four or more Republican members (beyond Duke Cunningham) are indicted, and only one Democrat (say William Jefferson) is, that could also lead to voters seeing scandal as more Republican.

As my colleagues Jennifer Duffy and Amy Walter are fond of saying, there are structural barriers that are helping protect the GOP majorities in the Senate and House.   They include the fact that there is only one GOP retirement in the Senate and few Republican retirements in competitive House districts. There are also fewer competitive districts in general due to redistricting and an enhanced incumbency advantage.

These structural advantages are probably sufficiently strong enough to withstand a political hurricane on the level of a Category 1, 2 or 3.   But, if the political environment looks like a Category 4, those structures may not be enough to hold back the tide. If it's a Category 5, those structures would almost certainly fail.

Right now, the political environment is at Category 1 or 2 level. Still, the elements are there to see the potential for a Category 3, 4 or even 5 level storm. But, it is not there yet.   Keep in mind that the very earliest signs of a wave in 1994 did not manifest themselves until late spring or early summer. By August of that year, after the Crime Bill debacle, it really started becoming obvious that the wave was coming. By October it was only a question of how tall, how deep and how much force was behind that tsunami tidal wave and whether it would be big enough to sweep Republicans into majorities.

Past Polls

December 8-11 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll
Results from the Dec. 8-11 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (December 12, 2005)

Cross Tabs from the Dec. 8-11 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (December 16, 2005)

Press Release for the Dec. 8-11 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (December 12, 2005)

November 17-20 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll
Results from the Nov. 17-20 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (November 28, 2005)

Cross Tabs from the Nov. 17-20 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (November 28, 2005)

Press Release for the Nov. 17-20 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (November 22, 2005)

Methodology
The Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll is a monthly survey, and the first was conducted between November 17-20, 2005 and surveyed 1,001 adults nationwide. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%.

For more information about this survey, please contact:

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