When it comes to 2016, the media is fixated on Bridge-gate, Benghazi, and Bush (Jeb). Left out of the picture is the man that many assumed would be the frontrunner by now, Sen. Marco Rubio. The CW says that Rubio's star has been dimmed (perhaps irreversibly so) by his championing of comprehensive immigration reform in 2013. That way of thinking assumes that Rubio--and this issue--will remain...
Presidential: Recent Updates
Listening the other day to discouraging economic forecasts from Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers, I was reminded of the many polls showing that Americans worry their children won't have the same opportunities they did. To be clear, neither the former Fed chairman nor the former Treasury secretary was predicting recessions or even downturns. But there was little in their words to the National...
I argued in a column last week that, despite the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is certain to run for president in 2016, there's a decent chance—maybe 30 percent—that she won't. Obviously, that means there's still about a 70 percent chance that she will.The article's point was very deliberately not to make a case that she absolutely would or wouldn't run. My intention was purely to...
At least every week now, there is a new story supporting the narrative of an inevitable 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential bid. Indeed, the conventional wisdom is that it is an absolute certainty that she will run. If anyone is currently saying, flat out, that Hillary isn't running, I haven't come across them. Is the inevitability of her run really as certain as the conventional wisdom...
It's hard to remember a presidential contest receiving this much attention so long before the election cycle even began. We have the burbling question of whether Hillary Clinton will run, not to mention a look at the former secretary of State and her closest circle of advisers and supporters in a New York Times Magazine cover story; we've seen the drama around New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and...
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Electoral Vote Scorecard
The Cook Political Report's Electoral College Voting Ratings. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.
Historic Party Affiliation
This chart tracks the aggregate Gallup party affiliation numbers each year between 1988-2008.
Presidential Voting by State (1992-2012)
The chart below shows how many times each state has voted Democrat and/or Republican in the last six Presidential elections.
Major Party Vote Margin for 2004-2008 Presidential Elections
This chart shows the average vote margin when looking at only major-party votes for the Presidential elections of 2004 and 2008.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.