Although the congressional standoff over the Department of Homeland Security is being framed as a debate over national security, it is, at is core, the latest example of the GOP divide over how to tackle immigration reform. For a party that is already facing demographic challenges and shrinking Electoral College opportunities, the inability to come to agreement on immigration could have...
Presidential: Recent Updates
From the time I moved to Washington, in 1972, through 2012, 46 sitting senators ran for president—publicly declaring their candidacies and/or putting their names on at least one primary or caucus ballot—not to mention 17 other former members of the Senate who also gave it a shot. Obviously some of their candidacies didn't even make it to the Iowa caucuses or to the New Hampshire primary, let...
While the fight for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination looks like it will be a wild roller-coaster ride, the Democratic contest, at least today, looks like a pretty boring affair. History suggests that in open presidential nomination contests, front-runners rarely go from the starting line to the finish without losing a few primaries or caucuses along the way. Usually the leader...
There are some surprising events that warrant being taken very seriously; others, well, not so much. Prior to Thanksgiving, it looked pretty unlikely that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would actually pull the trigger and seek the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, even though it was obvious that he personally wanted to do it. Since then, things have changed dramatically, to the point that...
When it comes to making predictions about 2016, there are lots of important numbers to follow. The unemployment rate. Consumer confidence. The president’s approval rating. The horse race polls. But, in my mind, the most important data point to follow is the one which measures Americans’ desire to stay the current course or try a different one in 2016.
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Electoral Vote Scorecard
The Cook Political Report's Electoral College Voting Ratings. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.
Historic Party Affiliation
This chart tracks the aggregate Gallup party affiliation numbers each year between 1988-2008.
Presidential Voting by State (1992-2012)
The chart below shows how many times each state has voted Democrat and/or Republican in the last six Presidential elections.
Major Party Vote Margin for 2004-2008 Presidential Elections
This chart shows the average vote margin when looking at only major-party votes for the Presidential elections of 2004 and 2008.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.