Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the nomination.
Presidential: Recent Updates
Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Republican side, one candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to clinch the nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard.
For leaders of the Republican establishment, things could not look much worse. They desperately need one of the four conventional, mainstream candidates—Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, or Marco Rubio—to pull away and consolidate that wing of the party, the way Ted Cruz has done on the Right. But after Rubio’s robotic debate showing, it looks less likely now that...
1. Trump had a great night. While I am still quite sure that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee, unlike in the Iowa Caucus and he did turn in an impressive performance and got his vote out. Aside from calling his opponents foul, obscene names, he is becoming a better candidate than at the beginning of the race. But I still see Trump as more of a protest candidate, a vehicle...
The quick takeaways from the Granite State: 1. Trump and Sanders won big, but haven’t put to rest questions about their electability and 2. The GOP establishment vacuum remains, but Marco Rubio, the big loser tonight, still remains the likeliest candidate to fill it.
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Electoral Vote Scorecard
The Cook Political Report's Electoral College Voting Ratings. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.
2016 GOP Delegate Scorecard
At any given point in the primaries, the GOP candidate who comes the closest to hitting his or her lane's delegate cumulative "benchmark" on our scorecard should be regarded as the frontrunner.
Historic Party Affiliation
This chart tracks the aggregate Gallup party affiliation numbers each year between 1988-2008.
Presidential Voting by State (1992-2012)
The chart below shows how many times each state has voted Democrat and/or Republican in the last six Presidential elections.
Major Party Vote Margin for 2004-2008 Presidential Elections
This chart shows the average vote margin when looking at only major-party votes for the Presidential elections of 2004 and 2008.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.