By now, everyone has an opinion on who “won” and “lost” 1) the summer; 2) the last debate and 3) the momentum to win the party nomination. What’s more important is to see how actual voters see this race. The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll – the gold standard of public opinion polling IMHO – is out with its latest survey which both upends and justifies the current inside-the-Beltway...
Presidential: Recent Updates
What did we learn from Scott Walker’s very brief foray into presidential politics? And, what does the race for the nomination look like now that he’s gone?
At its core, politics is all about timing. Are you the right candidate with the right message at the right moment? At some level, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton would seem to be the right candidates for the moment. After all, Republicans have been frustrated since 2008 by two things: 1. Obama's lack of executive/leadership experience and; 2. the lack of GOP control of the White House to roll-back...
Is the Republican Party going rogue? It’s hard to look at the opinion polling in the GOP presidential nomination contest and conclude anything else. As unexpected as many of the developments on the Democratic side have been, it doesn’t hold a candle to what is unfolding among the Republicans.
At this point, it feels like we are in some kind of an alternative universe election where up is down, black is white and east is west. On the GOP side, a blowhard reality TV star insults a war hero, attacks a popular Fox News anchor and remains atop the polls. On the Democratic side, the prospects for the first female presidential nominee in history may be derailed by a 73-year old white male...
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Electoral Vote Scorecard
The Cook Political Report's Electoral College Voting Ratings. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.
Historic Party Affiliation
This chart tracks the aggregate Gallup party affiliation numbers each year between 1988-2008.
Presidential Voting by State (1992-2012)
The chart below shows how many times each state has voted Democrat and/or Republican in the last six Presidential elections.
Major Party Vote Margin for 2004-2008 Presidential Elections
This chart shows the average vote margin when looking at only major-party votes for the Presidential elections of 2004 and 2008.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.