This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 23, 2016.
Presidential: Recent Updates
Trump’s unexpected primary victory has led many to reassess his prospects for the general election. After all, Trump won a major party nomination without doing all the things that campaigns are SUPPOSED to do - polling, data analytics, fundraising and traditional campaign operations. Why can’t we assume he upends the fundamentals in November as well? Before we talk of disrupting the...
Americans are angry, say the cable TV pundits and armchair political observers. They are angry at a dysfunctional Washington, DC. Angry at the out-of-touch political class. Angry at an out-of-control bureaucracy. The only problem with this argument is that, well, Americans aren’t actually any angrier at government today than they were a year ago, or even four years ago. In fact, according to...
When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, two of only three states (along with Nevada) that have voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1996. They tend not to think of Pennsylvania as a classic “swing state” — it has voted for the Democrat in every election since 1992, and it didn’t even crack the top 10 in 2012 campaign ad spending.
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Electoral Vote Scorecard
The Cook Political Report's Electoral College Voting Ratings. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.
2016 Democrat Delegate Scorecard
At any given point in the primaries, the Democratic candidate who comes the closest to hitting his or her lane's delegate cumulative "benchmark" on our scorecard should be regarded as the frontrunner.
Historic Party Affiliation
This chart tracks the aggregate Gallup party affiliation numbers each year between 1988-2008.
Presidential Voting by State (1992-2012)
The chart below shows how many times each state has voted Democrat and/or Republican in the last six Presidential elections.
Major Party Vote Margin for 2004-2008 Presidential Elections
This chart shows the average vote margin when looking at only major-party votes for the Presidential elections of 2004 and 2008.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.