If you predicted that Ted Cruz would beat Donald Trump by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton would lead Bernie Sanders, you deserve a special pundit medal of honor. But, the topsy-turvy results of the Iowa Caucuses actually make some sense when you dig into the reasons behind them. In looking through the Iowa entrance/exit polls (voters are surveyed before they go into their caucus precincts...
It’s now less than a week before the Iowa caucuses, two weeks before the New Hampshire primary, and thus time for political aficionados to whip themselves into frenzy. People often become so preoccupied with the two contests that they lose sight of the larger picture. So take a deep breath, everyone: Neither party’s nomination is likely to be settled by the outcomes in...
I have no idea what is going to happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. If the polls are correct, Donald Trump is on his way to victory in both states. On the Democratic side, Iowa is a coin-toss and Bernie Sanders wins big in New Hampshire. But, I also have little confidence that this is how things will work out. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by anything.
Sometimes politicians get into a tough position with no easy way out, and their best option is just to plow straight ahead. Hillary Clinton is now in such a position.
In the wake of new Iowa and New Hampshire polls showing Bernie Sanders gaining, some say it's time for Hillary Clinton to hit the panic button. "Clinton should ABSOLUTELY be nervous about the state of the race with less than three weeks before voters in Iowa head to the caucuses," the Washington Post's Fix blog blared last week.
Electoral Vote Scorecard
The Cook Political Report's Electoral College Voting Ratings. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.
2016 GOP Delegate Scorecard
At any given point in the primaries, the GOP candidate who comes the closest to hitting his or her lane's delegate cumulative "benchmark" on our scorecard should be regarded as the frontrunner.
Historic Party Affiliation
This chart tracks the aggregate Gallup party affiliation numbers each year between 1988-2008.
Presidential Voting by State (1992-2012)
The chart below shows how many times each state has voted Democrat and/or Republican in the last six Presidential elections.
Major Party Vote Margin for 2004-2008 Presidential Elections
This chart shows the average vote margin when looking at only major-party votes for the Presidential elections of 2004 and 2008.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.