The conventional wisdom holds that the worse a presidential candidate does, the more likely his or her party’s down-ballot candidates will do. Whether you believe that the winning party’s candidates benefit from coattails or that the losing party suffers from depressed turnout, you have a pretty good chance of being right. But a third factor, especially this year, could come into play:...
This week a friend showed me the New Yorker cover from June 1, 2015 with a drawing of seven leading candidates for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Not one ended up making the acceptance speech. If someone suggested at the beginning of 2015 that the GOP nomination would not go to Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike...
The two major party conventions are now behind us and the consequent bounces have had time to settle giving us a presidential race that isn’t over, but one that is fully developed. Many observers have noted that in the last six decades of modern presidential polling, the candidate with the lead in the polls two weeks after the final convention has always won. Presumably, but not certainly...
The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll puts Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 8 points in the three-way trial heat, while both the Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls have the former secretary of State ahead by 9 points. CNN pegs her lead at 8 points, and CBS at 5 points. So there isn’t much question who is ahead, only how real and durable that lead is, how much...
Is the 2016 presidential race over? I suppose the answer to that question turns on how you define “over.” Is there anything approaching certainty about the outcome? Of course not; human behavior and elections don’t lend themselves to much certainty, especially not this year. Exogenous events such as international crises, economic and financial calamities, debates, and the potential for other...
Electoral Vote Scorecard
The Cook Political Report's Electoral College Voting Ratings. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.
Trump Support in House
The Cook Political Report has compiled news reports and the public statements of all 247 House Republicans, and sorted their attitudes towards Trump on a seven-point scale.
2016 Democrat Delegate Scorecard
At any given point in the primaries, the Democratic candidate who comes the closest to hitting his or her lane's delegate cumulative "benchmark" on our scorecard should be regarded as the frontrunner.
Historic Party Affiliation
This chart tracks the aggregate Gallup party affiliation numbers each year between 1988-2008.
Presidential Voting by State (1992-2012)
The chart below shows how many times each state has voted Democrat and/or Republican in the last six Presidential elections.
Major Party Vote Margin for 2004-2008 Presidential Elections
This chart shows the average vote margin when looking at only major-party votes for the Presidential elections of 2004 and 2008.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.