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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 23, 2016

The conventional wisdom holds that the worse a presidential candidate does, the more likely his or her party’s down-ballot candidates will do. Whether you believe that the winning party’s candidates benefit from coattails or that the losing party suffers from depressed turnout, you have a pretty good chance of being right. But a third factor, especially this year, could come into play:...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 16, 2016

This week a friend showed me the New Yorker cover from June 1, 2015 with a drawing of seven leading candidates for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Not one ended up making the acceptance speech. If someone suggested at the beginning of 2015 that the GOP nomination would not go to Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 15, 2016

The two major party conventions are now behind us and the consequent bounces have had time to settle giving us a presidential race that isn’t over, but one that is fully developed. Many observers have noted that in the last six decades of modern presidential polling, the candidate with the lead in the polls two weeks after the final convention has always won. Presumably, but not certainly...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 12, 2016

The latest ABC News/Wash­ing­ton Post poll puts Hil­lary Clin­ton ahead of Don­ald Trump by 8 points in the three-way tri­al heat, while both the Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journ­al polls have the former sec­ret­ary of State ahead by 9 points. CNN pegs her lead at 8 points, and CBS at 5 points. So there isn’t much ques­tion who is ahead, only how real and dur­able that lead is, how much...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 9, 2016

Is the 2016 presidential race over? I suppose the answer to that question turns on how you define “over.” Is there anything approaching certainty about the outcome? Of course not; human behavior and elections don’t lend themselves to much certainty, especially not this year. Exogenous events such as international crises, economic and financial calamities, debates, and the potential for other...

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Charlie Cook

Charlie Cook is Editor and Publisher of the Cook Political Report and a political analyst for National Journal magazine, where he writes a twice weekly column. Charlie is considered one of the nation's leading authorities on American politics and U.S. elections.
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