It’s getting increasingly difficult to characterize the presidential race as competitive. It really isn’t. Donald Trump’s share of the vote hasn’t plummeted, but his numbers among undecided voters—the crucial swing voters who are not part of his base—have become toxic. He has doubled down on keeping his base intact, making it difficult if not impossible to expand his...
With less than three weeks to go in election 2016 it is clear that Trump has abandoned any precept of fighting for persuadable voters. Instead, as he showed in every debate including the third and final one last night, Trump is all about stoking and stroking his base. Polling since the first debate has shown an unmistakable pattern - Clinton has been climbing and Trump has been falling - even...
With just about three weeks to go until this campaign is put out of its misery, we find Donald Trump impossibly behind and the Hillary Clinton campaign and her allies pushing to expand the map. The question isn’t whether Clinton wins, it’s now a question of by how much. The bigger the margin, the better the odds of Democrats down ballot success. While most Republican senators and many incumbent...
What a difference a week makes. In the wake of the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton looked to be pulling away in the presidential race, the fight over the Senate majority was an even-money bet, and Republican control of the House seemed to be a cinch. Today, the presidential race looks like a cakewalk for Clinton, the Republican Senate majority looks...
Over the last year we’ve witnessed a familiar pattern: Trump does or says something controversial/contentious/reprehensible (Judge Curiel, The Khan family, Alicia Machado), his poll numbers plummet and talk ensues about a Hillary Clinton “landslide” and a down ballot wipe out. The #nevertrump continent engages in Twitter schadenfreude.
Electoral Vote Scorecard
The Cook Political Report's Electoral College Voting Ratings. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.
Trump Support in House
The Cook Political Report has compiled news reports and the public statements of all 247 House Republicans, and sorted their attitudes towards Trump on a seven-point scale.
2016 Democrat Delegate Scorecard
At any given point in the primaries, the Democratic candidate who comes the closest to hitting his or her lane's delegate cumulative "benchmark" on our scorecard should be regarded as the frontrunner.
Historic Party Affiliation
This chart tracks the aggregate Gallup party affiliation numbers each year between 1988-2008.
Presidential Voting by State (1992-2012)
The chart below shows how many times each state has voted Democrat and/or Republican in the last six Presidential elections.
Major Party Vote Margin for 2004-2008 Presidential Elections
This chart shows the average vote margin when looking at only major-party votes for the Presidential elections of 2004 and 2008.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.