House

New Jersey: Rothman vs. Pascrell Race Is GOP's Dream Come True

December 28, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: Democratic Rep. Steve Rothman's decision to challenge fellow Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell in a June primary caps a week of redistricting that couldn't have gone better for New Jersey Republicans. In convincing tie-breaking commissioner John Farmer to adopt their map, Republicans argued they were setting up a race between Rothman and GOP Rep. Scott Garrett, but knew full well they were merging the political bases of Rothman and Pascrell. Now, in yet another such costly case of "fight or flight" for Democrats, Rothman will be bringing his $1.7 million to bear against another Democrat, not a Republican. The merged 9th CD is solidly Democratic, but a primary between Rothman (a former mayor of upscale Englewood) and Pascrell (a former mayor of gritty Paterson) will be an all-out war between two powerful party machines in Bergen (Rothman) and Passaic (Pascrell) counties. About 61 percent of the registered Democrats in the new 9th CD come from Rothman's current 9th CD, but Pascrell backers justifiably argue that many working-class towns in South Bergen are culturally closer to Pascrell's brand than Rothman's. It's a Toss Up in the primary. The new 9th CD begins in the Solid Democratic column, while the fortunate Garrett's 5th CD moves to the Likely Republican column.
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Florida GOP Map Sets Off Land Speculation

February 2, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: Florida's initial GOP-drawn map is sure to draw a fierce legal challenge from Democrats and backers of the "Fair Districts" amendments, and that's why we have yet to add ratings for the proposed districts into our database. But the map's release set off a quick chain reaction of candidate chess moves that have benefited the NRCC's goal of protecting as many Republican incumbents as possible. If anything like the legislature's map holds, Republicans would have a decent chance of protecting all 19 of their current seats, and they might even have glimmers of hope in each of two new districts.
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Dissecting the DCCC: CA-31

January 26, 2012
CA-31: Gary Miller (R) – Inland Empire: San Bernardino, Rancho Cucamonga
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