Senate

Indiana Senate: Lugar’s Loss is Democrats’ Gain

May 10, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: As expected, six-term incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar lost the Republican primary on Tuesday to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Less expected was Mourdock’s impressive 61-percent to 39-percent margin of victory. Neither party wasted any time moving on to the general election. Republicans embraced Mourdock as their nominee, while Democrats sought to capitalize on Lugar’s defeat and promote their standard-bearer, U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly. Indiana is not an easy state for Democrats, particularly in a presidential year, but Mourdock has provided them with some arguments that they hope will work to Donnelly’s advantage. While this race is only 48 hours old and both candidates need to prove themselves on the larger general election playing field, Democrats see an opportunity that might not have existed had Lugar won the primary. As such, the race moves to the Lean Republican column.
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Utah Senate: Oh, So Close

April 26, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: At the 2010 state Republican convention, Tea Party activists denied Sen. Bob Bennett his party’s nomination for re-election. With that victory in hand, they immediately set their sights on 2012 when Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch would be running for a seventh term. They had hoped to make Hatch another high-profile trophy in their effort to elect more ideologically pure conservatives to the Senate. But, as activists were sizing up Hatch, the incumbent was staring right back at them. Hatch has been determined not to suffer Bennett’s fate and has worked for more than a year to ensure that he would either get the necessary 60 percent, or force a primary. The state convention was held on Saturday. Hatch faced former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist, and took 59.1 percent to 40.9 percent for Liljenquist, forcing a June 26 primary. Although Hatch fell short of winning the nomination outright by just 32 votes, the fact that he made it to a primary defies the early conventional wisdom about this race. A year ago, many political strategists predicted that there was little that Hatch could do to win the nomination. And, while some observers still believe that a primary means the end of Hatch’s Senate career, a strong case can be made that he actually benefits from the two-way contest since the primary electorate will be more ideologically diverse than the delegates who populate the convention.
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1st Quarter FEC Reports

April 26, 2012
The FEC reports for the 1st quarter have been filed. Amanda Fisher has compiled our chart of the results, including cycle-to-date totals for receipts, expenditures, and personal loans by various candidates to their campaigns. The chart is here.
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