Senate

Senate: GOP Poised to Pick Up 7 to 9 Seats

September 2, 2010
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy assesses the current political environment and its impact of the most competitive Senate race: At some point in every election cycle, the outlook for the Senate begins to look more like a mathematical equation and less like a collection of individual races. With 61 days to go before the election, we’ve now hit that point. The math equation for the Senate is divided into two parts; the macro political environment, and the 37 races on the ballot this year. The macro political landscape strongly favors Republicans and it is not likely that it will change much between now and November. As a result, a look at the 37 Senate races on the ballot shows some deterioration for Democrats in some of the 19 seats they are defending, while Republicans’ prospects have stayed the same or improved slightly in their most competitive seats. As such, it is now likely that Republicans will score a net gain of between seven and nine seats. While there is a plausible argument for how Republicans could net the 10 seats they need to win the majority, it remains an unlikely scenario today.
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Alaska Senate: Angry Alaskans

August 26, 2010
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: It takes a lot to surprise us these days. If the truth be told, we would prefer never to be surprised when it comes to politics. Still, we have to admit that the fact that Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski is trailing a relatively unknown and underfunded primary challenger does amount to a very big surprise. GOP strategists believe that Murkowski’s chances of winning based on as yet counted absentee votes are slim. If that is true, the race could be between GOP attorney Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams, the Mayor of Sitka. Or, Democrats might attempt to sub in a stronger challenger. And, it’s possible that Murkowski might opt for a third-party bid. There’s a lot of dust that needs to settle here, but whatever the outcome, Republicans are still favored to hold the seat.
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Connecticut Senate: The Race Heats Up

August 19, 2010
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy looks at the pre-Labor Day state of play: The inevitable contest between Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, the Republican nominee, has seemed a long time in coming. But, now that the primaries are over, Blumenthal and McMahon have wasted no time launching advertising aimed at the general election voters. While Blumenthal retains an advantage today, one thing is very clear; McMahon has made a considerable dent in the Attorney General’s once formidable lead in the polls.
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