Senate

Michigan Senate: A Potentially Vulnerable Incumbent

January 26, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: When we first wrote about this race last April, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow was showing some signs of vulnerability. Her job approval numbers were upside down and she hovered at or below the 50-percent mark in hypothetical general election match ups. Michigan’s economy was still stuck in its long economic downturn. Working in Stabenow’s favor, though, was that Republicans didn’t have a first-tier candidate to challenge her. Many of the likely suspects, including former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and the Republican members of the U.S. House delegation, had all taken passes on the race. Fast forward nine months, and the race looks different today. Stabenow’s poll numbers haven’t seen any meaningful improvement and the state’s economy hasn’t made meaningful progress toward recovery (the unemployment rate was 9.3 percent in December). Now, though, Republicans have two candidates who can give the incumbent a competitive race in November. As a result, the race is moving to the Lean Democratic column.
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Senate: Four Epic Battles that Could Determine the Majority

January 12, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: There are many paths that could net Republicans the four seats they need to win the Senate majority next November. There are even a few routes that could allow Democrats to keep a tenuous hold on control of the chamber. Any of these paths, though, will likely involve four races: Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, and Virginia. Each of these contests will be epic battles that will remain very close until Election Day and all will shatter records for spending on a U.S. Senate race in their respective states.
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Arizona Senate: Baseline Analysis

January 5, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: When Republican Sen. Jon Kyl announced last February that he would retire at the end of this Congress, the field of GOP candidates to replace him came together quickly. For a variety of reasons, it took Democratic candidates months to announce their intentions. It appears that the fields are now set and both parties face primaries in late August. Republicans are confident that they can hold this seat, but Democrats believe that they have a shot at putting this race in play. Much of Republicans’ confidence is rooted in the state’s GOP tilt. The party holds all six statewide offices, as well as both U.S. Senate seats, and five of the eight U.S. House seats after picking up two in 2010. Moreover, they also built on their majorities in the state legislature in 2010. However, both parties find good news in voter registration statistics. As of October, Republicans accounted for 35 percent of registered voters, while Democrats made up 31 percent. Democrats take heart that 33 percent of the electorate is registered as independents or with minor political parties. Democrats further point to voter self-identification as evidence that Arizona is more a swing state than a red one. According to composite Gallup data for the first six months of 2011, 42 percent said they were Republicans or leaned toward Republicans, while 40 percent called themselves Democrats or said they leaned toward Democrats.
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