The political environment usually is "set" in midterm elections around midsummer. At that point, it's generally easy to see which direction the partisan winds are blowing, and one usually has an idea as to whether those winds are light, moderate, or heavy. By this time in the cycle, now a week from the election, you can have a much better idea of the velocity of those winds, though it's still...
Senate: Recent Updates
With less than a week to go before the vote counting begins, the battle for the majority of the Senate continues. At this point, there are 10 races in the Toss Up column, seven Democratic-held seats and three seats held by Republicans. All but one – Kentucky – are well within the margin of error. Republicans’ path to six seats and the majority hasn’t changed much in the last few months,...
After the obvious "Who's going to control the Senate after this midterm election?" question, several more questions come up in most political conversations these days. One recurring inquiry focuses on the role of the Affordable Care Act, with many suggesting that it has faded as an issue in the eyes of voters. People who monitor advertising, however, argue with that. "The ACA is back to...
The prospects remain very tough for Democrats to hold onto their majority in the Senate, but there is a new scenario emerging—albeit still unlikely—that is turning the majority math a bit on its head. As I have said previously, Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take the majority. The question has generally been whether Republicans just need to knock off six Democratic seats to get...
With just a little more than two weeks to go before the midterm election, Democrats are increasingly in need of a break or two to salvage their Senate majority. In my National Journal Daily column a month ago (September 14), after suggesting that Republicans had a 60 percent chance of scoring the six-seat net gain necessary for a majority, I asked what might go wrong for the GOP that could...
|Seats Up in 2014||Toss Up||Lean D||Likely D||Solid D||Seats Up in 2016||Seats Up in 2018|
|Toss Up||Lean R||Likely R||Solid R|
A listing of candidates and race ratings in all current Senate races. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.Updated 07:08 AM, Oct 17
The Cook Political Report's latest ratings for all competitive and potentially competitive Senate seats.Updated 07:08 AM, Oct 17
General Election Polls
A selection of public opinion polling in Senate general election contests across the nation.
Primary Trial Heats
A selection of public opinion polling in Senate primary election contests across the nation.Updated 08:00 AM, Sep 12
A summary of key financial information filed by Senate candidates with the Federal Election Commission.Updated 03:07 PM, Aug 1
2014 Battleground Chart
2014 Senate Races: Romney Performance vs. Obama PerformanceNovember 12, 2012
2012 Senate General Election Polls with Final Results
A collection of polling data from the 2012 cycle, with final general election results included.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.
The Cook Political Report Senate Scatterplot for Republican and Democratic held states by win percentage and PVI.
Senate: 2014 55% and Under Charts
The chart below displays Senators up for reelection in 2014 who won with less than 55% of the vote in 2008.