Senate: Recent Updates

The June 25 special election to finish the remainder of former Democratic U.S. Sen. John Kerry’s term is just 12 days away. Two weeks ago, we moved this race to Toss Up based on polling, particularly Democratic U.S. Rep. Ed Markey’s less than stellar numbers, and the unpredictable nature of special elections. At the time, we did put a thumb on the scale for Markey. Not all that much has change…

Within a week of Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s death, Republican Gov. Chris Christie set the dates for the special election, and the filing deadline for that election has come and gone. Six candidates filed the necessary petitions to qualify for the August 13 primaries. Four candidates will vie for the Democratic nomination: Newark Mayor Cory Booker, U.S. Reps. Rush Holt and Frank Pallo…

Aside from all of the controversies swirling around President Obama, the Justice Department, the Internal Revenue Service, and the intelligence community, the top political question these days is whether Republicans really have a good shot at picking up a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts in the June 25 special election. Special elections, with low voter turnout, are often highly volatile and dif…

Just three days after Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s death, the race to succeed him has become somewhat clearer. On Tuesday, Republican Gov. Chris Christie announced that there would be a special election on October 16 with a primary on August 13. And, this afternoon, Christie named state Attorney General Jeffrey Chiesa as the interim U.S. Senator. The election schedule may be set, but C…

Special elections are quirky things.  As the only race on the ballot and generally at a time when voters aren’t accustomed to going to the polls, they occur in a political vacuum.  Predicting turnout is difficult.  This, of course, makes conducting polls difficult because even the best pollsters may or may not get the sample right.  Such is the case in the Massachusetts special…