This contest has become the Rubik’s Cube of Senate races. At the end of the day, it will be solved, but no one really knows how long it will take or how many different ways to solve the puzzle there really are. As a result, this race defies traditional analyses. Given what has become a complicated two-way race, polling is of little use. How the rift between conservative and moderate...
Senate: Recent Updates
In the early 1970s there was a classic television commercial for Memorex, a company just entering the consumer market for high-quality audio cassettes. In the commercial, jazz great Ella Fitzgerald would hit a high note, shattering a wine glass. Then, they would play her back on tape, shattering the glass again. The tagline on the ad was, "Is it live, or is it Memorex?" Sometimes in politics,...
Are things getting better for Senate Democrats? Certainly many of the better (more reliable) statistical models seem to suggest they are. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight moved from a 64 percent chance of the GOP gaining a majority, predicted on Sept. 3, to a 54.7 percent chance on Sept. 15. As of Sept. 16, The New York Times' Upshot model, nicknamed Leo, put GOP chances at 51 percent; they were...
At this point, most independent political analysts are giving the edge to Republicans in this year's fight for majority status in the U.S. Senate. Personally, I give the GOP a 60 percent chance of taking the majority, while others put it a little higher or lower. At least a half dozen very close races will be determined by just a point or two, and those can turn on events that may have yet to...
Kansas politics have proven to be more interesting this year than at any time since perhaps 1996 when there were two open Senate seats and Bob Dole, the state’s senior Senator, was the Republican presidential nominee. Most of the interest has focused on the Governor’s race where GOP Gov. Sam Brownback is locked in a competitive race with Democrat Paul Davis, the state House Minority Leader,...
|Seats Up in 2014||Toss Up||Lean D||Likely D||Solid D||Seats Up in 2016||Seats Up in 2018|
|Toss Up||Lean R||Likely R||Solid R|
A listing of candidates and race ratings in all current Senate races. Updated weekly and printable for on-the-run reference.Updated 01:56 PM, Sep 29
The Cook Political Report's latest ratings for all competitive and potentially competitive Senate seats.Updated 01:56 PM, Sep 29
General Election Polls
A selection of public opinion polling in Senate general election contests across the nation.
Primary Trial Heats
A selection of public opinion polling in Senate primary election contests across the nation.Updated 08:00 AM, Sep 12
A summary of key financial information filed by Senate candidates with the Federal Election Commission.Updated 03:07 PM, Aug 1
2014 Battleground Chart
2014 Senate Races: Romney Performance vs. Obama PerformanceNovember 12, 2012
2012 Senate General Election Polls with Final Results
A collection of polling data from the 2012 cycle, with final general election results included.
Two-Term Presidents: Post-WWII Partisan Trends
Opposing party gains under and following second term presidents.
The Cook Political Report Senate Scatterplot for Republican and Democratic held states by win percentage and PVI.
Senate: 2014 55% and Under Charts
The chart below displays Senators up for reelection in 2014 who won with less than 55% of the vote in 2008.