This week, Democrats landed their top recruit against GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock when state Sen. Jennifer Wexton announced her candidacy, vaulting VA-10 to the top of their 2018 takeover target list. Comstock, who prevailed 53 percent to 47 percent last fall while President Trump lost her Northern Virginia seat by 10 points, represents a rapidly Democratic-trending area that would be adversely impacted by Trump's proposed cuts to the federal workforce.
Wexton possesses an ideal resume for this contest. A former county prosecutor who served as a court-appointed attorney for abused and neglected children, Wexton is a proven vote-getter: she won a competitive 2014 special election for a state senate seat entirely within VA-10 and was reelected in 2015. And unlike Comstock (and Comstock's last two Democratic opponents), Wexton hails from Loudoun County, the population center of the 10th CD.
There are only three Republican-held seats where Trump did worse than VA-10, and for perspective, according to the newest Cook Partisan Voter Index VA-10 is nine points more Democratic than GA-06. Comstock has tried to adapt to the shifting winds here and opposed the recent GOP repeal and replace bill. But if Trump's approval rating remains mired in the 30s, it will be difficult for her to overcome. The race moves to the Toss Up column.