November 6, 2012
National Presidential Polling
Live-Interviewer/Land-line and Cellphone Interviews -- Sorted Chronologically by Date
The chart below provides a rundown of recent presidential election trial heats nationally. The polls featured here were conducted solely via live interviewing of voters on land-lines or cellphones. This chart will be updated daily leading up to the November 6 election.| Lead | Pollster (Partisan Lean) | Obama % | Romney % | Sample Size and Type | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even | Politico/GWU/Battleground | 47% | 47% | 1000 LV | November 4-5, 2012 |
| Even | CNN/ORC | 49% | 49% | 693 LV | November 2-4, 2012 |
| Obama +3 | ABC/Washington Post | 50% | 47% | 2345 LV | November 1-4, 2012 |
| Obama +4 | Democracy Corps (D) | 49% | 45% | 1080 LV | November 1-4, 2012 |
| Romney +1 | Gallup (7-day) Likely Voters* | 48% | 49% | 2700 LV | November 1-4, 2012 |
| Obama +3 | Gallup (7-day) Reg. Voters* | 49% | 46% | 2200 RV | November 1-4, 2012 |
| Obama +1 | NBC/WSJ | 48% | 47% | 1475 LV | November 1-3, 2012 |
| Obama +3 | Pew Research | 48% | 45% | 2709 LV | Oct 31 - Nov 3, 2012 |
| Even | Fox News | 46% | 46% | 1128 LV | October 28-30, 2012 |
| Obama +1 | CBS/New York Times | 48% | 47% | 563 LV | October 25-28, 2012 |
| Obama +5 | United Technologies/National Journal | 50% | 45% | 713 LV | October 25-28, 2012 |
| Romney +1 | NPR | 47% | 48% | 1000 LV | October 23-25, 2012 |
| Romney +2 | AP/GfK | 45% | 47% | 839 LV | October 19-23, 2012 |
| Obama +2 | CBS News | 48% | 46% | 790 LV | October 17-20, 2012 |
| Even | Gallup (21-day) Reg. Voters | 47% | 47% | 9722 RV | October 8-28, 2012 |
| Obama +1.2 | Average |
National Presidential Polling
Live-Interviewer/Land-line and Cellphone Interviews -- Sorted by Best Romney to Best Obama
The chart below provides a rundown of recent presidential election trial heats nationally. The polls featured here were conducted solely via live interviewing of voters on land-lines or cellphones.| Lead | Pollster (Partisan Lean) | Obama % | Romney % | Sample Size and Type | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romney +2 | AP/GfK | 45% | 47% | 839 LV | October 19-23, 2012 |
| Romney +1 | Gallup (7-day) Likely Voters* | 48% | 49% | 2700 LV | November 1-4, 2012 |
| Romney +1 | NPR | 47% | 48% | 1000 LV | October 23-25, 2012 |
| Even | CNN/ORC | 49% | 49% | 693 LV | November 2-4, 2012 |
| Even | Fox News | 46% | 46% | 1128 LV | October 28-30, 2012 |
| Even | Gallup (21-day) Reg. Voters | 47% | 47% | 9722 RV | October 8-28, 2012 |
| Even | Politico/GWU/Battleground | 47% | 47% | 1000 LV | November 4-5, 2012 |
| Obama +1 | CBS/New York Times | 48% | 47% | 563 LV | October 25-28, 2012 |
| Obama +1 | NBC/WSJ | 48% | 47% | 1475 LV | November 1-3, 2012 |
| Obama +2 | CBS News | 48% | 46% | 790 LV | October 17-20, 2012 |
| Obama +3 | ABC/Washington Post | 50% | 47% | 2345 LV | November 1-4, 2012 |
| Obama +3 | Gallup (7-day) Reg. Voters* | 49% | 46% | 2200 RV | November 1-4, 2012 |
| Obama +3 | Pew Research | 48% | 45% | 2709 LV | Oct 31 - Nov 3, 2012 |
| Obama +4 | Democracy Corps (D) | 49% | 45% | 1080 LV | November 1-4, 2012 |
| Obama +5 | United Technologies/National Journal | 50% | 45% | 713 LV | October 25-28, 2012 |
| Obama +1.2 | Average |
Battleground State Presidential Polling
Live-Interviewer/Land-line and Cellphone Interviews -- Sorted Alphabetically by State
The chart below provides a rundown of recent presidential election trial heats in swing states. The polls featured here were conducted solely via live interviewing of voters on land-lines or cellphones. This chart also includes the private characterizations of top pollsters and strategists on where they see each state.Note: Characterizations currently under review
| State (Electoral Vote Count) | Current Cook Rating | D/R Pollster Characterization* | Pollster (Partisan Lean) | Poll Results | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado (9) | Toss Up | CNN/ORC PNA/Grove Insight (D) CNN/ORC NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Obama +2: 50% - 48% Obama +3: 48% - 45% Romney +1: 48% - 47% Even: 48% -48% |
October 26-30, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 October 25-28, 2012 October 23-24, 2012 |
|
| Florida (29) | Toss Up | TBT/Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon NBC/WSJ/Marist CNN/ORC Mellman Group (D) |
Romney +6: 51% - 45% Obama +2: 49% - 47% Romney +1: 50% - 49% Obama +2: 49% -47% |
Oct 30 - Nov 1, 2012 Oct 30 - Nov 1, 2012 October 25-28, 2012 October 24-27, 2012 |
|
| Iowa (6) | Toss Up | PNA/Grove Insight (D) Des Moines Register NBC/WSJ/Marist NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Obama +3: 47% - 44% Obama +5: 47% - 42% Obama +6: 50% -44% Obama +8: 51% - 43% |
November 1-2, 2012 Oct 30 - Nov 2, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 October 15-17, 2012 |
|
| Michigan (16) | Lean D | Glengariff Group/Detroit News CNN/ORC |
Obama +3: 49% - 46% Obama +8: 52% - 44% |
October 17-29, 2012 September 14-18, 2012 |
|
| Nevada (6) | Lean D | Mellman Group (D) PNA/Grove Insight(D) NBC/WSJ/Marist Mellman Group (D) |
Obama +6: 50% - 44% Obama +6: 49% - 43% Obama +3: 50% - 47% Obama +8: 51% - 43% |
October 29-31, 2012 October 27-28, 2012 October 23-24, 2012 October 15-17, 2012 |
|
| New Hampshire (4) | Toss Up | WMUR-TV/UNH WMUR-TV/UNH NBC/WSJ/Marist Lake Research |
Obama +5: 50% - 45% Even: 47% - 47% Obama +2: 49% - 47% Obama +3: 48% - 45% |
November 1-4, 2012 Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 October 18-22, 2012 |
|
| North Carolina (15) | Toss Up | PNA/Grove Insight (D) Elon University |
Obama +3: 47% - 44% Even: 45% - 45% |
October 23-24, 2012 October 21-26, 2012 |
|
| Ohio (18) | Toss Up | UCinn/OH News PNA/Grove Insight (D) NBC/WSJ/Marist CNN/ORC |
Obama +1: 50% - 49% Obama +4: 49% - 45% Obama +6: 51% - 45% Obama +3: 50% - 47% |
Oct 30 - Nov 4, 2012 November 1-2, 2012 Oct 31 - Nov 1, 2012 Oct 30 - Nov 1, 2012 |
|
| Pennsylvania (20) | Lean D | Philadelphia Inquirer Philadelphia Inquirer Quinnipiac |
Obama +6: 49% - 43% Obama +8: 50% - 42% Obama +4: 50%-46% |
October 23-25, 2012 October 4-10, 2012 October 12-14, 2012 |
|
| Virginia (13) | Toss Up | NBC/WSJ/Marist PrioritiesUSA/Garin-Hart (D) CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Washington Post |
Obama +1: 48% - 47% Obama +3: 49% -48% Obama +2: 49% - 47% Obama +4: 51% - 47% |
November 1-2, 2012 October 25-27, 2012 October 23-28, 2012 October 22-26, 2012 |
|
| Wisconsin (10) | Lean D | PNA/Grove Insight (D) NBC/WSJ/Marist Marquette Law School PNA/Grove Insight (D) |
Obama +6: 48% - 42% Obama +3: 49% - 46% Obama +8: 51% -43% Obama +3: 48% -45% |
November 1-2, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 October 25-28, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 |
Note: unusually wide range indicates wide divergence in assessments.
Battleground State Presidential Polling
Live-Interviewer/Land-line and Cellphone Interviews -- Sorted by Best Romney to Best Obama
The chart below provides a rundown of recent presidential election trial heats in swing states. The polls featured here were conducted solely via live interviewing of voters on land-lines or cellphones. This chart also includes the private characterizations of top pollsters and strategists on where they see each state.Note: Characterizations currently under review
| State (Electoral Vote Count) | Current Cook Rating | D/R Pollster Characterization* | Pollster (Partisan Lean) | Poll Results | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina (15) | Toss Up | PNA/Grove Insight (D) Elon University |
Obama +3: 47% - 44% Even: 45% - 45% |
October 23-24, 2012 October 21-26, 2012 |
|
| Virginia (13) | Toss Up | NBC/WSJ/Marist PrioritiesUSA/Garin-Hart (D) CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Washington Post |
Obama +1: 48% - 47% Obama +3: 49% -48% Obama +2: 49% - 47% Obama +4: 51% - 47% |
November 1-2, 2012 October 25-27, 2012 October 23-28, 2012 October 22-26, 2012 |
|
| Florida (29) | Toss Up | TBT/Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon NBC/WSJ/Marist CNN/ORC Mellman Group (D) |
Romney +6: 51% - 45% Obama +2: 49% - 47% Romney +1: 50% - 49% Obama +2: 49% -47% |
Oct 30 - Nov 1, 2012 Oct 30 - Nov 1, 2012 October 25-28, 2012 October 24-27, 2012 |
|
| Colorado (9) | Toss Up | CNN/ORC PNA/Grove Insight (D) CNN/ORC NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Obama +2: 50% - 48% Obama +3: 48% - 45% Romney +1: 48% - 47% Even: 48% -48% |
October 26-30, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 October 25-28, 2012 October 23-24, 2012 |
|
| Ohio (18) | Toss Up | UCinn/OH News PNA/Grove Insight (D) NBC/WSJ/Marist CNN/ORC |
Obama +1: 50% - 49% Obama +4: 49% - 45% Obama +6: 51% - 45% Obama +3: 50% - 47% |
Oct 30 - Nov 4, 2012 November 1-2, 2012 Oct 31 - Nov 1, 2012 Oct 30 - Nov 1, 2012 |
|
| Wisconsin (10) | Lean D | PNA/Grove Insight (D) NBC/WSJ/Marist Marquette Law School PNA/Grove Insight (D) |
Obama +6: 48% - 42% Obama +3: 49% - 46% Obama +8: 51% -43% Obama +3: 48% -45% |
November 1-2, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 October 25-28, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 |
|
| Nevada (6) | Lean D | Mellman Group (D) PNA/Grove Insight(D) NBC/WSJ/Marist Mellman Group (D) |
Obama +6: 50% - 44% Obama +6: 49% - 43% Obama +3: 50% - 47% Obama +8: 51% - 43% |
October 29-31, 2012 October 27-28, 2012 October 23-24, 2012 October 15-17, 2012 |
|
| Iowa (6) | Toss Up | PNA/Grove Insight (D) Des Moines Register NBC/WSJ/Marist NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Obama +3: 47% - 44% Obama +5: 47% - 42% Obama +6: 50% -44% Obama +8: 51% - 43% |
November 1-2, 2012 Oct 30 - Nov 2, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 October 15-17, 2012 |
|
| New Hampshire (4) | Toss Up | WMUR-TV/UNH WMUR-TV/UNH NBC/WSJ/Marist Lake Research |
Obama +5: 50% - 45% Even: 47% - 47% Obama +2: 49% - 47% Obama +3: 48% - 45% |
November 1-4, 2012 Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2012 October 28-29, 2012 October 18-22, 2012 |
|
| Pennsylvania (20) | Lean D | Philadelphia Inquirer Philadelphia Inquirer Quinnipiac |
Obama +6: 49% - 43% Obama +8: 50% - 42% Obama +4: 50%-46% |
October 23-25, 2012 October 4-10, 2012 October 12-14, 2012 |
|
| Michigan (16) | Lean D | Glengariff Group/Detroit News CNN/ORC |
Obama +3: 49% - 46% Obama +8: 52% - 44% |
October 17-29, 2012 September 14-18, 2012 |
Note: unusually wide range indicates wide divergence in assessments.