After winning Arizona convincingly on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton maintains a virtually insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination. Despite her losses in Idaho and Utah, Clinton now has a pledged delegate lead of 1,228 to 934, meaning Sanders would need to win 58 percent of the remaining pledged delegates at stake to draw even with Clinton by June. That's a virtual impossibility given Democrats' all-proportional delegate allocation system.
Clinton or Sanders would need to win 2,382 of 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the Democratic nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates Clinton and Sanders would need to win in each primary, caucus and convention to become the nominee.
At this point, Clinton is at 126 percent of the delegates she needs to be "on track" for the nomination, while Sanders is at just 78 percent of what he needs to be "on track."
But Sanders's momentum is likely to be stalled by New York, Clinton's home state, on April 19. It's worth keeping in mind that New York has more delegates than Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho and Utah combined. And a week later on April 26, Sanders will face uphill battles in more diverse, higher-income northeastern states that should favor Clinton: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware.
What's more, according to the Associated Press, Clinton maintains a lead of 467 to 26 in superdelegates, the party leaders and elected officials who get automatic votes at the convention. When added together, that gives Clinton 1,695 delegates to Sanders's 950. Factoring in superdelegates means Sanders would need to win roughly 68 percent of remaining pledged delegates and uncommitted superdelegates just to pull even.
It's worth noting that superdelegates could be under pressure to switch their support should Sanders somehow emerge from the primaries with more pledged delegates than Clinton. But Sanders's largest delegate shares have come in caucus states with relatively few participants, and he still trails Clinton by over 2.5 million votes. That's not a lead Sanders can realistically make up at this point, and no matter what Clinton will likely be able to remind superdelegates that she won more actual votes.
2016 Democratic Delegate Scorecard: Updated for March 25, 2016
How this works: The scorecard below is not a prediction or forecast. Rather, it's a tool to gauge Clinton's and Sanders's true progress towards the nomination, taking into account Clinton's preexisting lead in superdelegates. At any given point in the primaries, the candidate who exceeds his or her cumulative delegate target should be regarded as the frontrunner. Click here for a larger version of the table.
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