Charlie Cook - CongressDaily/AM

Tipping Point?

January 30, 2012

Unless the polling over the last few days in Florida is completely wrong, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has turned back former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s second resurgence. Republican officeholders can now step back off the ledge.

Solving the Rubik’s Cube

January 23, 2012

As President Obama strides to the podium in the House chamber on Tuesday night, he might have a bit more spring in his step than a few weeks ago. The question on his mind, though, is the same as many others have: “What in the hell is going on in the Republican Party?”

‘Epic Battles’ Will Seal Senate’s Fate

January 16, 2012

When one party has 23 Senate seats up for grabs and the other party has just 10, the side with more than twice as much exposure starts off with an enormous disadvantage. Nobody envies the predicament that Senate Democrats are in—clinging to a narrow 53-47 majority and defending seven open seats, while Republicans are defending just two.

Lack of Conservative Option Boosts Romney

January 10, 2012

Unless pollsters are all accidentally calling voters in other state, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is headed toward a fairly big victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday.

Iowa Dust Starts to Settle

December 19, 2011

The Gallup national tracking poll and various public and private polls conducted in Iowa indicate that the bloom is coming off former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s rose, just as it did for Rep. Michele Bachmann, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain before him.

A Marathon or a Sprint

December 12, 2011

Last time I checked, the final Republican presidential primaries were scheduled for June. In fact, my favorite resource for primary and caucus dates, Frontloading HQ, shows California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and North Dakota all slated for June 5. Ohio and Utah are scheduled for June 12 and 26, respectively.

That Unemployment Drop

December 5, 2011

Forty years ago, high-end computer and audiotape manufacturer Memorex ran a classic television ad in which jazz great Ella Fitzgerald sings a high note and shatters a wine glass. Then her taped music plays with glass-shattering crystal clarity, and an announcer asks, “Is it live, or is it Memorex?”

It’s the Numbers, Stupid

November 28, 2011

On Friday at 8:30 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the November unemployment figures. Like many other economic statistics and poll numbers, their impact on 2012 may now seem theoretical or hypothetical. But with the general election less than 12 months away, they are becoming more and more relevant.

Super Committee Is Media Sideshow

November 21, 2011

The unfortunate demise of the congressional super committee wasn’t accompanied by nearly the drama and hand-wringing of this summer’s debt-ceiling disaster, but its passing is more fuel for the fire of public disillusionment and anger toward Washington and Congress. With record-low job-approval numbers, disenchantment with Congress can still intensify.

Make Way for Newt!

November 14, 2011

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the presidential hopeful who has been on the national scene the longest, is finally surging in polls for the GOP nomination. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is still the odds-on favorite to clinch it, but this is quite a comeback for Gingrich, whose candidacy was left for dead last summer after a series of damaging stories.