Analysis by Amy Walter

forest National Politics Look at the Forest, Not the Trees: What We Do and Don't Know About 2020 AWalter Head Amy Walter April 9, 2019
dems National Politics Did Trump Just Throw Democrats a Lifeline on Health Care? AWalter Head Amy Walter March 28, 2019
EC National Politics Why the Fight About the Electoral College Is About More Than the Electoral College AWalter Head Amy Walter March 20, 2019
swing states National Politics Battleground States Then (2012/2016) vs. Now (2018/2019) AWalter Head Amy Walter March 14, 2019
roots National Politics The Roots of Our Division AWalter Head Amy Walter March 5, 2019
cohen National Politics Did the Cohen Testimony Change Anything? AWalter Head Amy Walter February 28, 2019
bern National Politics Are Democratic Primary Voters Feeling "The Bern"? AWalter Head Amy Walter February 22, 2019
states National Politics How Does the "Blue Wall" Look for 2020? AWalter Head Amy Walter February 14, 2019
medicareforall National Politics How Left Will Democrats Go in 2020? AWalter Head Amy Walter February 7, 2019
road National Politics For Democratic Presidential Hopefuls, a Trail Paved With Regret AWalter Head Amy Walter January 25, 2019
Nancy National Politics Trump Is Unifying Democrats Instead of Consolidating His Base AWalter Head Amy Walter January 17, 2019
2020 National Politics Introducing The Cook Political Report's 2020 Electoral College Ratings AWalter Head Amy Walter January 11, 2019
aw National Politics What We Should Look for and What We Can Ignore in 2020 Polling AWalter Head Amy Walter December 19, 2018
all the dems National Politics A Most Unpredictable Road to the 2020 Democratic Nomination AWalter Head Amy Walter December 13, 2018
Trump National Politics Trump's 2016 Showing Was the Most Important Factor in 2018 House Races AWalter Head Amy Walter November 14, 2018
AnnoyedDems National Politics Why Aren't Democrats More Excited About the 2018 Results AWalter Head Amy Walter November 9, 2018
AW Final image National Politics Final Week Fundamentals AWalter Head Amy Walter November 1, 2018
Trump National Politics Same as It Ever Was... AWalter Head Amy Walter October 23, 2018
AW column National Politics A Referendum on Trump or Pelosi? AWalter Head Amy Walter October 18, 2018
protest National Politics Evaluating Enthusiasm With Less Than a Month to Go AWalter Head Amy Walter October 10, 2018
AW National Politics The War That Never Ends AWalter Head Amy Walter October 5, 2018
2020 National Politics The 2018 Impact on the 2020 Democratic Nomination AWalter Head Amy Walter September 26, 2018
women National Politics Is Winning Women Enough for Democrats to Win the House? AWalter Head Amy Walter September 21, 2018
Trumo Obama National Politics This Election Is All About Trump - Not Obama AWalter Head Amy Walter September 11, 2018
whitevoters National Politics Getting to Know White Voters AWalter Head Amy Walter August 29, 2018
Who Wins If the Talk Turns to Impeachment? National Politics Who Wins If the Talk Turns to Impeachment? AWalter Head Amy Walter August 23, 2018
TVAW National Politics What Did Campaigns Advertise About This Primary Season? AWalter Head Amy Walter August 16, 2018
AW House Overview What August Ratings Can Tell Us About November Results AWalter Head Amy Walter August 2, 2018
15 OBW National Politics Can Republicans Bridge the Gender Gap? AWalter Head Amy Walter July 27, 2018
AW National Politics But, Will It Matter for the Midterms? AWalter Head Amy Walter July 19, 2018
DEMS National Politics A Glimpse Into What the Democratic Freshman Class May Look Like AWalter Head Amy Walter July 12, 2018
Immigration National Politics Are Democrats Ready to Make Immigration an Issue in the Midterms? AWalter Head Amy Walter June 26, 2018
Pelosi Bush National Politics Good News for Republicans, It's Not 2006 AWalter Head Amy Walter June 21, 2018
Trump National Politics Trump Is Everything Voters Hoped/Feared He Would Be AWalter Head Amy Walter June 13, 2018
ew wave National Politics How to Define a Wave AWalter Head Amy Walter June 7, 2018
CA-38 California House The Party *Doesn’t* Decide AWalter Head Amy Walter May 31, 2018
wave National Politics Has the Blue Wave Already Crested? AWalter Head Amy Walter May 23, 2018
Nov 6 National Politics What Do We Know With Just Under Six Months to Go AWalter Head Amy Walter May 17, 2018
National Politics It's Republicans, Not Democrats, Who Are Focusing on Trump in Campaign Ads Based on what you hear from the chattering class in DC, you’d think that Democrats are all but committed to running on nothing but an “anti-Trump” message in 2018. Democratic leaders, including cable… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 8, 2018
Year of Women National Politics How to Define 2018's Version of the Year of the Woman AWalter Head Amy Walter May 7, 2018
Nancy National Politics If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don't They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot? AWalter Head Amy Walter April 26, 2018
AW Image National Politics Choose Your Own Adventure: 2020 Presidential Edition AWalter Head Amy Walter April 19, 2018
New Speakers National Politics Trump Didn't Break the Speakership, It Was Already Broken AWalter Head Amy Walter April 12, 2018
Trump Ryan National Politics The Trump Tension Within The GOP AWalter Head Amy Walter April 9, 2018
Aw column National Charts Is the Trump Bump Real? AWalter Head Amy Walter March 28, 2018
Protesters Healthcare National Politics Deja Vu All Over Again. Health Care Takes Center Stage in 2018 Campaigns AWalter Head Amy Walter March 22, 2018
Lamb Steel Pennsylvania House Conor Lamb Ran as a Change Agent in PA-18. So Are Lots of Other Democrats AWalter Head Amy Walter March 16, 2018
Trump TV National Politics Trump Gets More Positive Ad Cover Than Obama Did at This Point in 2014 Cycle AWalter Head Amy Walter March 9, 2018
AW column National Politics Trump's Branding Plan vs. GOP's 2018 Election Plan AWalter Head Amy Walter March 7, 2018
AW0218 National Politics The Economy Is Improving, but It's Not Helping the GOP's Image AWalter Head Amy Walter March 1, 2018
AW NRA National Politics It's Not All About the NRA AWalter Head Amy Walter February 22, 2018
Defining the Terms of the Tax Reform Debate National Politics Defining the Terms of the Tax Reform Debate AWalter Head Amy Walter February 15, 2018
National Politics It's Tribalism Not Trump There has been a lot of hand-wringing in DC these days about the way in which President Trump has undermined the legitimacy of our nation’s top law enforcement agencies. Trump’s steady stream of… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 8, 2018
For Tax Reform to Get More Popular, Trump Needs to Get More Popular National Politics For Tax Reform to Get More Popular, Trump Needs to Get More Popular AWalter Head Amy Walter February 2, 2018
National Politics What to Make of All These New and Often Conflicting Generic Ballot Polls? If you are confused about what to make of the latest slew of polling data about control of Congress in 2018, you are not alone. On the so-called generic ballot question which asks voters if they’d… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 25, 2018
The Map Has Changed, But The Math Remains The Same National Politics The Map Has Changed, but the Math Remains the Same AWalter Head Amy Walter January 18, 2018
National Politics (Don’t) Miss Independents Listen to cable TV or almost any political discussion these days and you’ll hear the term “the base” a lot. “Isn’t this all about Trump keeping his base happy?” or, “will the Democratic base accept a… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 11, 2018
Can Tax Bill Unite Divided GOP? National Politics Can the Tax Bill Unite a Divided GOP? AWalter Head Amy Walter December 21, 2017
Paul Ryan Is More Than A Policy Wonk National Politics Paul Ryan Is More Than A Policy Wonk AWalter Head Amy Walter December 15, 2017
National Politics The Kübler-Ross Politics of 2017 In just one year, we’ve seen a remarkable shift in political fortunes for the party in power. They have lost high profile races in a light blue state (Virginia) and a dark red one (Alabama). They… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 13, 2017
National Politics Political Fallout From Franken Resignation Even before Sen. Al Franken took to the Senate floor to announce his resignation Thursday afternoon, theories about its broader political implications were already flying fast and furious. In sum,… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 7, 2017
It’s the Economy Stupid or Is It? National Politics It’s the Economy Stupid or Is It? AWalter Head Amy Walter December 7, 2017
Democrats Missed Opportunity National Politics Democrats Missed Their Opportunity AWalter Head Amy Walter November 28, 2017
A Wave Is a Comin' House Overview A Wave Is a Comin' AWalter Head Amy Walter November 16, 2017
National Politics Laws of Political Gravity Dragging Down Republicans About a year ago at this time, many of us in Washington, DC were trying to catch our breath, still reeling from the political upset that blindsided us. Many of us were wondering if the rulebook of… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 10, 2017
Congressional Generic Ballot House Overview When Should We Start Paying Attention to the Congressional Generic Ballot Test? AWalter Head Amy Walter November 2, 2017
The Midterms and Mueller National Politics The Midterms and Mueller AWalter Head Amy Walter October 26, 2017
National Politics Why Bipartisanship Is Losing and Polarization Is Winning Of all the great work done by Pew Research Center, one of my favorites is their Political Typology—a deep dive into the issues that define and divide the two parties (including intra-party schisms)… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 25, 2017
Tiberi Ohio House OH-12: Tiberi Departure Doesn't Change Solid R Rating (For Now) AWalter Head Amy Walter October 20, 2017
CACentralValley National Politics All Politics Is Local, With a Twist AWalter Head Amy Walter October 18, 2017
Paul Ryan National Politics Are Republicans Going to Get “Pelosi-ed” in 2018? AWalter Head Amy Walter October 10, 2017
WarrenAmyWalter National Politics Democrats' Leftward Shift and Its Impact on 2020 AWalter Head Amy Walter October 5, 2017
National Politics A Divided Party Cannot Stand. Or Can It? Eight years after the rise of the Tea Party, the GOP remains engaged in intra-party warfare. Capturing all levers of political power in Washington has done nothing to temper the deep-seeded tension… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 27, 2017
National Politics Trump Won't Lose His Base on DACA A common parlor game here in Washington – one that has been played since 2016 – is “when will the GOP base break from Trump?” It didn’t happen with the Access Hollywood tape. Or the travel ban. Or… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 20, 2017
McConnellTrump National Politics Can This Marriage Be Saved? AWalter Head Amy Walter August 30, 2017
National Politics What Defines Trump If it’s not already obvious by now, President Trump’s tangled, mangled and bungled response to Charlottesville reminds us that his is a presidency run on gut and instinct and fealty to his base.… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 17, 2017
National Politics Trump Triangulates Historically, a sitting president with a 39 percent approval rating would represent existential danger to his party’s prospects in the midterm elections. When the president falters, so does his party… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 9, 2017
National Politics Mixed Messages on Enthusiasm and Engagement One of the most important factors in every election is turn-out. Predicting who turns out, of course, is tricky. History tells us that angry people vote. The more enraged a voter is about issues/the… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 31, 2017
Keeping Democrats "Better Deal" in Perspective National Politics Keeping Democrats "Better Deal" in Perspective AWalter Head Amy Walter July 26, 2017
National Politics What We Learned From Obamacare Repeal Fail and What It Could Mean Going Forward With the collapse – for now – of GOP efforts to repeal Obamacare, there’s plenty of blame to go around. But, there are also important lessons to take about why it failed and what it may mean for… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 18, 2017
National Politics Where Americans Agree—and Disagree—on Civics and Democracy In this era of deep polarization and distrust, it seems as if Americans are incapable of agreeing with each other on anything or anyone. But, is it really as bad as it looks? Are we so divided that… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 12, 2017
AP Images National Politics Republican Senators Left Exposed in Health Care Ad Wars AWalter Head Amy Walter July 12, 2017
House Overview How Big Is the House Playing Field? In the wake of the GA-06 special election, it’s worth taking a look at just how broad (or narrow) the universe of competitive House districts looks going into 2018. However, defining that universe is… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 27, 2017
Pelosi National Politics The Pelosi Blame Game AWalter Head Amy Walter June 22, 2017
National Politics Running to Stand Still So much is happening in Washington and yet nothing is happening at all. The investigation into Russian meddling into the 2016 campaign continues to get lots of attention (and produce a lot of leaks… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 15, 2017
National Politics Smells Like Team Spirit As my colleagues and I have been writing for the last few weeks, a clear “enthusiasm” gap is opening between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats more engaged (or is it enraged?) than their GOP… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 7, 2017
National Politics Who's Winning the TV Ad Messaging Wars on Health Care Reform? The fight for Obamacare repeal is moving on two separate, but parallel tracks. One is a legislative track to a future and final Republican health care reform bill; a bill that can make it through the… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 25, 2017
National Politics Will GOP Fall Into the Enthusiasm Gap? Another week of crazy at the White House begets another week of talk among the political chattering class about “when the GOP base will abandon” President Trump. Recent polling suggests that’s not… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 17, 2017
National Politics Americans Say They Want More Government. What Does That Mean? Much was made of recent polling showing a spike in the percentage of Americans who say they want a more active or bigger government. An April NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 57 percent of… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 9, 2017
National Politics GOP Voters Sticking With Trump, but Will They Stick With GOP in 2018? One of the biggest questions during the 2016 campaign was if the GOP party would ever accept Donald Trump, an outsider to the party, as its standard bearer. More than once during 2016 I was convinced… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 3, 2017
National Politics Trump's Next 100 Days Challenge So, here we are at President Trump’s first 100 day mark.  As we’ve been reminded over and over again this week, Trump, when compared to presidents past, is the most unpopular at this stage of his… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 24, 2017
National Politics What Matters and What Doesn't in White House Palace Intrigue Stories There’s nothing those inside the beltway love more than a good White House “palace intrigue” story. It’s the kind of stuff that DC’s gossip driven culture is built for. But, what about folks who don’… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 14, 2017
National Politics What's a Democrat to Do? If schadenfreude made a sound, D.C. would be reverberating with it. Democrats and #NeverTrump-ers are gleefully gloating as the Trump administration stumbles and fumbles its way through its first 100… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 5, 2017
National Politics How to Lose a Majority The very public intra-party fight between President Trump and the Freedom Caucus is just the latest twist in the ongoing fight over the philosophical, strategic and ideological direction of the… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 1, 2017
Pelosi National Politics The Pelosi Factor AWalter Head Amy Walter March 22, 2017
National Politics Mind the (Geographic) Gap In 2018 My colleague David Wasserman had a tremendous piece last week on the dearth of politically competitive counties in America.  In crunching the data from the 2016 campaign, David found that the… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 17, 2017
National Politics Trump's First Test Stuff just got real here in Washington. With the introduction of the Obamacare repeal/replace legislation (the American Health Care Act) we are now going to finally find out if an ideologically… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 9, 2017
National Politics We Know Less Than We Think We Do Let’s face it. No one really knows what’s going to happen this year. The president and his aides pride themselves on misdirection and unpredictability, even as they are firmly committed to a populist… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 2, 2017
Bar Charts National Divided States of America AWalter Head Amy Walter February 24, 2017
Trump's Transactional Voters National Politics Trump's Transactional Voters AWalter Head Amy Walter February 15, 2017
National Politics Can What Worked in 2016 Translate to 2018? There’s been lots of uncertainty and confusion in these first three weeks of the Trump Administration. But one thing is quite clear: Trump is going to run his White House like he ran his campaign.… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 8, 2017
National Politics Trump Voters Expect Drastic Change and Jobs. Unity? Not so Much As the professional political class continues to debate the reasons for Donald Trump’s victory, those who voted for him are very clear on why he won and what they expect from him once he’s in office… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 15, 2016
National Politics How Trump Broke the Blue Wall President-elect Donald Trump’s success at breaking the so-called “blue wall” – those Rust Belt states that had voted for a Democrat in every election since at least 1992 – was the key to his victory… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 9, 2016
National Politics Trump's Conventional Cabinet In many ways President-elect Trump is exactly the guy he was when he was candidate Trump. He remains obsessed with real or perceived slights — using twitter to lash out at those who he dissed or… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 1, 2016
National Politics The Story of the Suburbs The media has paid a lot of attention throughout the campaign and afterward on rural and working-class white America. Not nearly as much attention has been spent on suburban America, whose college-… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 14, 2016
National Politics The Shock Heard 'Round the World I got it wrong. Really wrong. Trump didn't just win, he crushed it. This is truly the most shocking thing that I have seen in my lifetime. So, what happened? We are going to be digging through the… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 9, 2016
National Politics New Electoral College Ratings Show a Tightening Race, Math Continues to Favor Clinton A tightening race nationally has also translated into tightening at the state level. States that were trending Trump’s way in September started to slip away from him in early October. Now, with the… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 3, 2016
National Politics Electoral College Math Continues to Favor Clinton There have been a lot of twists and turns to this campaign, but two things have remained constant. One, whenever the focus is on one candidate it benefits the other one. This is the byproduct of a… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 1, 2016
National Politics New Electoral College Ratings: Texas and North Carolina Shift in Clinton's Favor Less than two weeks before the election, Trump continues to struggle to lock down traditionally Republican states — even Texas and Utah — and lags behind Clinton in key battleground states he would… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 28, 2016
National Politics New Electoral College Ratings Favor Clinton With less than three weeks to go in election 2016 it is clear that Trump has abandoned any precept of fighting for persuadable voters. Instead, as he showed in every debate including the third and… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 20, 2016
National Politics Does Clinton's Margin of Victory Matter? With just about three weeks to go until this campaign is put out of its misery, we find Donald Trump impossibly behind and the Hillary Clinton campaign and her allies pushing to expand the map. The… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 19, 2016
National Politics Will This Deja Vu Be Different? Over the last year we’ve witnessed a familiar pattern: Trump does or says something controversial/contentious/reprehensible (think: attacks on Judge Curiel and the Khan family), his poll numbers… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 12, 2016
National Politics Debate Was Like Trench Warfare Which Benefits Clinton Lincoln-Douglas this was not. In fact, the debate Sunday night between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was ugly, angry and soul-crushing. It was less a forum for undecided voters than a grudge match… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 10, 2016
National Politics Will Taxes Trip Up Trump? In a campaign where the normal laws of political gravity often feel as if they don’t apply, it’s hard to know just how impactful the New York Times report of Donald Trump’s tax returns will play out… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 3, 2016
National Politics Clinton Prevails in Downer of a Debate The first debate of the 2016 fall season has concluded with a whimper more than a bang. If you were expecting the sky to fall or the race to be completed upended, you were sorely disappointed. If you… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 27, 2016
National Politics New September Electoral College Ratings At the mid-point of September, Hillary Clinton has 21 states plus the District of Columbia and three of Maine’s four electoral votes that are Solidly, Likely or Leaning in Democratic for a total of… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 23, 2016
National Politics 50 Days Out. The Questions That Remain This is it. The final sprint to the November election has begun. But, even with just a couple months to go, there are still some questions yet to be answered that will have a big impact on the final… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 22, 2016
National Politics Hillary's Self-Inflicted Headwinds When it comes to the current political environment, Hillary Clinton couldn’t ask for much better. The president sits at a 50 percent approval rating. Gas is just a little over $2. A new income and… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 15, 2016
National Politics Summer Swoon or Sign of Deeper Problems for Clinton? Donald Trump had a terrible June and July. Hillary Clinton had a terrible mid to late August. Both were victims of self-inflicted wounds -  one attacked a Gold Star family the other set up a private… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 8, 2016
National Politics A Tale of Two Elections If you only paid attention to the presidential primaries you’d come away with the impression that this is an anti-status quo, anti-establishment kind of year. Voters have rewarded brash outsiders who… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 1, 2016
National Politics Trump Is Trying to Run a “Normal” Campaign. Is It Too Late? Newly installed Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway is doing her best to keep the notoriously off-message candidate on script. He’s moving – or more accurately – stumbling into a more centrist… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 30, 2016
National Politics Of Electoral Maps, Emails and Pivots With just under three months to go in election 2016, some things, specifically the Electoral College math, look much clearer. Clinton not only has a decided lead, but she has a deeper, wider path to… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 24, 2016
National Politics Can Trump Catch Up? Hillary Clinton has a solid lead in the national polls. Donald Trump is trailing in every swing state and is underperforming in states easily carried by past GOP nominees such as Georgia and Arizona… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 11, 2016
National Politics Where the Race for the White House Stands 100 Days Out Well, we’ve made it. We have both conventions under our belt. Labor Day is (sadly for a summer enthusiast like myself), just around the corner. And, we are just under the magic 100-day mark before… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 3, 2016
National Politics The 2016 Race Is Not Over According to the chatter in Washington and on Twitter today, the election is over. The Donald Trump campaign literally imploded, sending red hot shards of burning metal across the countryside. The… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 3, 2016
National Politics Swimming in the Riptide: Six Things to Watch This Week and Beyond Like a swimmer caught in a rip-tide, I need to stop fighting this election and start going with it. I have spent most of this year trying to explain why things aren’t working out the way they are “… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 25, 2016
National Politics What We've Learned From the RNC Thus Far It is day three of the RNC convention and I am struggling. The late nights and early mornings are taking their toll. I am no longer the young and flexible person I was at my first convention in 1992… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 20, 2016
National Politics Can a VP Pick Fix Trump and Clinton's Problems? I have a complicated relationship with the vice presidential speculation phase of the presidential campaign. Actually, it’s not all that complicated. I don’t like it. My breaking point came in 2012… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 13, 2016
National Politics Obama's Rise Isn't Lifting All Boats While both parties decry of the state of the economy and terrorism shows no signs of abating, President Obama's job approval rating in every major poll out this month -  NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 29, 2016
National Politics When Conventional Wisdom Gets Ahead of the Voters There’s no doubt that Donald J. Trump has had a bad few weeks. His party remains split over his nomination. He fired his campaign manager and his campaign has less money in the bank than some state… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 22, 2016
National Politics Trump Will Be the Nominee. Period. This election year has been rife with conspiracy theories. Most of them, of course, have been peddled by Donald Trump. The most recent - that Trump is somehow going to be denied the nomination in… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 16, 2016
National Politics A Time for Change Election With a Status Quo Candidate So, it has come to this. American voters will have a choice in November between the most unconventional, disruptive “change” candidate of our time and an establishment politician who has been part of… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 9, 2016
National Politics Is Trump Expanding the Electorate? There’s little doubt that Donald Trump has changed the rules of campaigning in the 21st century. Or, more accurately, he’s the first to understand how to effectively campaign in a 21st century media… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 2, 2016
National Politics Focus on the Fundamentals Trump’s unexpected primary victory has led many to reassess his prospects for the general election. After all, Trump won a major party nomination without doing all the things that campaigns are… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 26, 2016
National Politics Anger Management Americans are angry, say the cable TV pundits and armchair political observers. They are angry at a dysfunctional Washington, D.C. Angry at the out-of-touch political class. Angry at an out-of-… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 19, 2016
National Politics The Ryan/Trump Battle Is Less Important Than It Looks Talk to many voters these days and you get an exasperated response to the question of who they are voting for this November. “I just can’t vote for Hillary,” they’ll say, “but, Trump? ugh! No way.”… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 11, 2016
National Politics New Electoral Scorecard Ratings in 13 States This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 5, 2016
National Politics Trump, Hillary and the Battle for Women and White Voters Talk to most Republican strategists these days and their views of GOP prospects for 2016 range from depressed to despondent. Democrats, however, are far from giddy. Their opinion of the 2016 Clinton… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 5, 2016
National Politics The General Election Starts Now This Tuesday marked the unofficial end of the 2016 primary season. Ladies and gentleman, barring some unexpected turn of events the fall matchup for President of the United States will be between… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 27, 2016
National Politics Trump, Clinton Get Their Groove Back. Now What? Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump easily won Tuesday’s New York primary. That was entirely expected and consistent with recent polling. Here’s what the road ahead looks like for the two frontrunners… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 20, 2016
National Politics Winning the Delegate Battle, Losing the PR War For all his boasting about his business acumen, it’s pretty clear that Donald Trump stinks at the nuts and bolts of running a campaign. His campaign has failed to execute the most basic functions of… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 13, 2016
National Politics Wisconsin More of an Outlier Than a Turning Point Senators Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders romped to big wins in the Badger State last night, halting the momentum of frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. However, it did little to change the… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 6, 2016
National Politics Why the Electability Argument Isn’t Working Poll after poll finds Donald Trump the least qualified Republican to beat Hillary Clinton in November. And yet, he keeps winning GOP primary contests. Is this because Republican primary voters… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 30, 2016
National Politics The Trump Train Rolls Forward Despite a concerted effort by many in the GOP to derail him, Donald Trump remains on track to capture the nomination. That’s not to say that the track is entirely clear. Kasich’s success in Ohio was… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 16, 2016
National Politics What Donald Trump Has in Common With McCain and Romney It’s very hard to categorize a “typical” Trump voter. While he does best with more downscale white voters, that alone isn’t what has propelled him to frontrunner status. The real key to his success… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 14, 2016
National Politics Tuesday Primaries Changed Everything and Nothing at All The results of Tuesday’s primary contests brought us some surprises - a Bernie win, a Rubio collapse and a Trump romp. But, it didn’t fundamentally alter the trajectory of this campaign. Hillary… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 9, 2016
National Politics Super Tuesday = Super for Trump There are only two real storylines out of Tuesday night’s SEC primary: 1. Trump is on a roll and more likely than not, on a path to the GOP nomination; and 2. there is no consensus alternative to… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 2, 2016
National Politics The Three R's Enabling Trump I admit it. I was wrong about Trump’s staying power as a candidate. Not only is he winning primaries, but he has a real path to winning the nomination. Why has he succeeded when I thought he would… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 25, 2016
National Politics What We Learned From Nevada and South Carolina 1) Hillary firewall holds; Bernie hits his ceiling   Despite a last-minute surge of “Bern-mentum” and weakening support among Latinos, Hillary Clinton put up a strong showing at the Nevada caucuses… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 21, 2016
National Politics New Hampshire: When the Heart Beat the Head The quick takeaways from the Granite State: 1. Trump and Sanders won big, but haven’t put to rest questions about their electability and 2. The GOP establishment vacuum remains, but Marco Rubio, the… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 10, 2016
National Politics Making Sense of Iowa If you predicted that Ted Cruz would beat Donald Trump by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton would beat Bernie Sanders, you deserve a special pundit medal of honor. But, the topsy-turvy results of… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 2, 2016
National Politics The Audacity of Hope: The Trump Version I have no idea what is going to happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. If the polls are correct, Donald Trump is on his way to victory in both states. On the Democratic side, Iowa is a coin-toss and… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 27, 2016
National Politics Democratic Debate Wrap Up: Change vs. Status Quo No one really won and no one lost. Well, except for poor Gov. Martin O’Malley who seemed to have been given a total of 46 seconds of talking time by the NBC moderators. It was clear from the outset… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 18, 2016
National Politics An Unusual Campaign Has More Traditional Look in Iowa Than in New Hampshire For an election that has been anything but conventional, the latest Marist/NBC polling out of Iowa finds things lining up in familiar ways. For Trump or Sanders to win they need new, non-traditional… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 13, 2016
National Politics Trump's Support Among Non-GOP Voters is Not as Problematic as We Think One of the biggest “known unknowns” of the GOP primary is whether Donald Trump will be able to translate his raucous rally goers into actual votes come election time. There has been rampant… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 7, 2016
National Politics What Mattered (and What Didn't) in Last GOP Debate of 2015 If you were looking for the fifth GOP debate of this topsy-turvy 2015 to upend or reshuffle this race, you came away sorely disappointed. Instead, this foreign policy focused forum merely solidified… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 16, 2015
National Politics Five Tables That Explain Rise of Trump and Durability of Anti-Establishment Message To understand why a majority of GOP voters are currently supporting candidates who espouse a populist-heavy, anti-establishment message, you need to look no further than the data laid out below. This… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 14, 2015
National Politics The Four Most Important Questions in GOP Race for President Thus far, this campaign has provided more questions than answers. I have dubbed the motto for 2016: WTF?!. But, some questions are more important – and the answers more consequential – than others.… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 9, 2015
National Politics Cruz's Conservative Conundrum Ted Cruz has the same plan to win the GOP nomination as he does to win the general election: appeal to, motivate and turn-out evangelical and disaffected and disgruntled conservative voters. While… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 30, 2015
National Politics Where Does the 2016 Race Stand Post-Paris In the wake of the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris there's been a lot of chatter here in DC about their impact on the 2016 elections. Will the "outsiders" be pushed out as voters flock to more… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 18, 2015
National Politics Hillary Can't Count on the Economy If you read the coverage of the October jobs report you'd think Americans should have been popping champagne and singing happy days are here again. Jobs up. Wages up. Unemployment down. The… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 11, 2015
National Politics The Carly Conundrum To the many confounding things about the 2016 GOP primary (the staying power of Trump and Carson, Walker’s early exit), we can add the question of where Carly Fiorina fits into all of this. She’s… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 5, 2015
National Politics How "Blue Zone" GOP Could Veto a Conservative Nominee In a few months, after Iowa and New Hampshire begin to winnow the field, the GOP nomination race could boil down to an epic final between a candidate with a more pragmatic image, such as Marco Rubio… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 4, 2015
National Politics What Did We Learn From the CNBC GOP Debate The GOP CNBC debate on Wednesday was ultimately designed for and about the GOP establishment in both the kind of questions asked and the way in which they were asked. And, that, not surprisingly, did… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 29, 2015
National Politics The Passive Path to the Presidency So, here’s where the race to be the leader of the free world stands today. Sen. Ted Cruz, he who doesn’t back down from a fight, is sitting back and waiting for Donald Trump and Ben Carson to flame… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 21, 2015
National Politics What Did We Learn From the Democratic Debate This was a whole lot easier to analyze than the GOP ones. There were fewer candidates, of course, but the winner was also a lot easier to spot. Hillary Clinton was poised, comfortable,confident and… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 14, 2015
National Politics Trump's Second Act, Carson's First p>In a sit-down interview with the Washington Post, Donald Trump all but admitted that his bombastic, shoot from the lip campaign was running out of steam and he needs a second act. The polls (of… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 9, 2015
National Politics The Consistent Clinton Coalition For all the talk about the strength of Hillary Clinton’s coalition against Sanders, it’s not much different from the one she put together in 2008. The one (and very important) exception is her… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 7, 2015
National Politics How Do Primary Voters See the Candidates By now, everyone has an opinion on who “won” and “lost” 1) the summer; 2) the last debate and 3) the momentum to win the party nomination. What’s more important is to see how actual voters perceive… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 30, 2015
National Politics Why Walker Failed and Where the GOP Field Stands Now What did we learn from Scott Walker’s very brief foray into presidential politics? And, what does the race for the nomination look like now that he’s gone? What we learned: 1. Candidates matter: I… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 23, 2015
National Politics What Did We Learn From the GOP Debate The obvious take-away: three hours + 11 candidates + evening time slot = ugh. By hour 2.5 it was time to wrap up. Here are my observations from the marathon debate:1. Jeb is simply not good at… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 17, 2015
National Politics The Sound Of Settling At its core, politics is all about timing. Are you the right candidate with the right message at the right moment? At some level, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton would seem to be the right candidates… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 16, 2015
National Politics In An Era Of Trump, Do Campaign Fundamentals Matter? At this point, it feels like we are in some kind of an alternative universe election where up is down, black is white and east is west. On the GOP side, a blowhard reality TV star insults a war hero… AWalter Head Amy Walter September 9, 2015
National Politics Winners and Losers From Summer of Trump Like a blockbuster movie, Donald Trump has dominated the summer. But, plenty of other candidates have been on the move too; some went up while others saw their fortunes dip. As we countdown to Labor… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 26, 2015
National Politics Can Trump Turn From Summer Fling to Serious Relationship? When it comes to picking candidates for president, summer is for dating and winter is for mating. The question is not so much why Donald Trump and other anti-establishment candidates like Ben Carson… AWalter Head Amy Walter August 18, 2015
National Politics Voters Are More Scared Than They Are Angry Does the rise of brash speaking candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders suggest a new, more potent level of anger among the American electorate? An anger that has reached a tipping point and… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 31, 2015
National Politics Don't Assess 2016 with Assumptions A lot of conventional wisdom floating out there about 2016 is grounded more in opinion and assumption than in facts or data. And, as your teacher or mom may have taught you, "assumption makes an A.S.… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 23, 2015
National Politics The Long, Trump Summer I promised myself that I would not write about Donald Trump. There is approximately zero percent chance that he will be the GOP nominee. Moreover, the odds are incredibly small that his candidacy… AWalter Head Amy Walter July 15, 2015
National Politics A Tale of Two Governors In politics, you have two choices: you can get in front of a wave or get slammed by a wave. Earlier this spring we saw Indiana Governor Mike Pence get walloped by a wave of his own making with his… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 24, 2015
National Politics Democrats Opposition to Trade is Nothing New With his attempts to woo Democrats unsuccessful, President Obama turned to Republicans this week to help rescue his Asia trade hopes. Obama has succeeded in the first step, with the House voting to… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 17, 2015
National Politics Walker's Tricky Balancing Act What makes Scott Walker such a formidable candidate in the primary is also what makes him vulnerable in a general election. As Walker flexes his conservative muscle on everything from immigration to… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 11, 2015
National Politics Jeb Goes from Fragile Frontrunner to Underdog With each passing day, Jeb Bush looks weaker and weaker. While he has a top notch political team and (reportedly) tons of cash, he is dropping, not, rising in the polls. For a party desperate to win… AWalter Head Amy Walter June 2, 2015
National Politics Hillary's Rising Unfavorable Ratings Don't Tell the Whole Story Watching coverage of the Clinton campaign, one longtime Democratic strategist told me, is like watching someone getting pecked by ducks. One day it’s another revelation about the murky Clinton Global… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 27, 2015
National Politics Where the GOP Contenders Stand In Iowa I went to Iowa last weekend to check out the GOP field. Yes, it’s still very early in the process. And, yes one dinner featuring eleven potential candidates and 1,200 or so GOP voters can’t tell you… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 20, 2015
National Politics Why Hillary Needs Obama Every presidential election is a response to the current president, even when the current president isn’t seeking re-election. If people don't like the guy in the White House, it’s almost impossible… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 13, 2015
National Politics The GOP Dating Game After two unsuccessful marriages to guys named McCain and Romney, GOP primary voters are more interested in playing the field this year than in settling down. That's the best explanation I can come… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 6, 2015
National Politics Bring Back the Smoke-Filled Rooms Politics is broken. Washington is dysfunctional. The best way to fix it, goes the conventional thinking, is to destroy the system itself. Rand Paul wants to “defeat the Washington machine,” while… AWalter Head Amy Walter May 1, 2015
National Politics Focus on the Fundamentals, Not the Scooby Van Almost every hour, it seems, someone is either announcing for President or announcing they are thinking about running for President. There are dozens of stories a day about new hires at SuperPAC's, "… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 22, 2015
National Politics The Promise and the Peril of an Improving Economy Americans are feeling better about the economy today than they have in years. For the first time since early 2013, more Americans approve of the job Obama's doing on the economy (48 percent) than… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 15, 2015
National Politics Where’s the Real Electoral College Battleground for 2016? Since Barack Obama’s win in 2008, phrases like “Demographic Destiny” and “blue wall” have become part of the justification for Democrats slight edge in winning the White House in 2016. Demographic… AWalter Head Amy Walter April 8, 2015
National Politics Consensus Conservative in 2016? Many are looking at the 2016 GOP primary in the same way they look at recent congressional GOP primaries: a contest between the Tea Party or very conservative forces versus the traditional… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 25, 2015
National Politics Marco’s Moment? For the last couple of weeks there’s been plenty of buzz about an imminent Marco Rubio “Moment.” As one non-affiliated GOP strategist remarked to me the other day, “Rubio is simply the best natural… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 18, 2015
National Politics Jeb Bush: Fragile Frontrunner Ask anyone on the Acela corridor who the frontrunner and/or likely nominee for the GOP is/will be and you are most likely to hear the name Jeb Bush. After all, he’s going to have bucketloads of cash… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 11, 2015
National Politics Is Scott Walker the GOP's Barack Obama? Scott Walker in 2015 is a lot like Barack Obama circa 2007; he’s relatively unknown and yet well-known at the same time. Obama’s speech at the DNC in 2004 propelled him to rock-star status among the… AWalter Head Amy Walter March 4, 2015
National Politics What the DHS Standoff Reveals About the GOP Demographic Dilemma Although the congressional standoff over the Department of Homeland Security is being framed as a debate over national security, it is, at its core, the latest example of the GOP divide over how to… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 25, 2015
National Politics The GOP Domestic Divide Vs. Dems ISIS Split One of the biggest assets for Democrats – especially for Hillary Clinton – going into this next election is the fact that they are much more ideologically united than the GOP. From social issues to… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 19, 2015
National Politics A Different Kind of Security Election Before every presidential election, we chew over the question of whether this will be a foreign policy or a domestic election. Will we be talking about "security moms" or "soccer moms"? 2016 is going… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 11, 2015
National Politics Changing the Way We Vote Isn't Getting More People To Vote California is the closest thing we have to a political lab for engineering a solution for the country's voter apathy problem. From permanent absentee voting to term limits and redistricting reform… AWalter Head Amy Walter February 4, 2015
National Politics Skipping Out On Iowa First, let me say that I really do like Iowa. Of course the weather is terrible, but the people are nice and politically engaged. Des Moines has turned into a pretty good restaurant town and the… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 28, 2015
National Politics The Elevator Pitch For 2016 Candidates There are enough potential candidates for president (on the GOP side at least) that you need an Excel spreadsheet just to keep them all straight. Instead of a complicated algorithm, I've boiled each… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 21, 2015
National Politics Will Democrats New Economic Message Work? Many Democrats blame their terrible showing at the ballot box in 2014 on a lack of a clear and compelling economic message. In fact, there were plenty of prescient Democrats we spoke to throughout… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 14, 2015
National Politics “Time For Change” And The 2016 Election When it comes to making predictions about 2016, there are lots of important numbers to follow. The unemployment rate. Consumer confidence. The president’s approval rating. The horse race polls. But,… AWalter Head Amy Walter January 7, 2015
National Politics What Wave Elections Have Wrought While there’s still some debate about whether 2014 should be called a “wave” or a “tsunami” or some other sort of nautical disaster, it’s fair to say it looks very similar to the elections of 2006,… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 11, 2014
National Politics Democrats' Downballot Troubles Democrats lost badly at the congressional level in 2014. That, of course, got a lot of coverage. Democrats also took huge losses at the state level. That didn’t get a lot of attention. State… AWalter Head Amy Walter December 3, 2014
National Politics The Clinton-Warren Binary There’s an odd binary mindset these days about the Democrats in 2016. Either the party will stick with their current frontrunner and standard bearer Hillary Clinton, or the base will rebel and… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 19, 2014
National Politics Election Night Takeaways This wasn't just a bad night for Democrats. This was a downright drubbing. So, what happened? All Politics Is National: Democrats believed they could help isolate and insulate their vulnerable… AWalter Head Amy Walter November 5, 2014
National Politics The Obama Drag One of the outstanding questions left in this election is whether the Democrats' ground operation – an operation that has proven to be far superior to that of Republicans in recent years - will be… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 29, 2014
National Politics The Challenge for a GOP-Controlled Congress in Four Charts We may not know the results of this election, but we do know this: neither party will have 60 Senate seats. While it’s more likely that Republicans will have the majority in 2015, it will be a very… AWalter Head Amy Walter October 22, 2014