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Analysis by Jennifer E. Duffy
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Amy Walter
Analysis by Amy Walter
Analysis by Amy Walter
National Politics
Impeachment's Limited Political Impact on 2020
Amy Walter
December 3, 2019
National Politics
In DNC Debate, Race Played a Starring Role
Amy Walter
November 21, 2019
National Politics
Does the Field Really Need More Democrats?
Amy Walter
November 15, 2019
National Politics
It's 2016 All Over Again
Amy Walter
November 7, 2019
National Politics
Will This Time Be Different?
Amy Walter
November 1, 2019
National Politics
Can Warren Beat Trump?
Amy Walter
October 23, 2019
National Politics
The Fall Was Supposed to Be All About 2020 Democrats — It's Now All About Impeachment
Amy Walter
October 10, 2019
National Politics
What Do Voters Think About Impeachment?
Amy Walter
October 3, 2019
National Politics
Will Impeachment Reshape the 2020 Race?
Amy Walter
September 26, 2019
National Politics
The Challenges Ahead for Warren
Amy Walter
September 20, 2019
National Politics
The Suburban Vote Isn't as Blue as It Looks
Amy Walter
September 12, 2019
National Politics
It’s Not Whether You Win or Lose, It’s How You Set the Expectations
Amy Walter
September 6, 2019
National Politics
The 2020 Democratic Candidates and Their Coalitions
Amy Walter
August 30, 2019
National Politics
A Recession and the Fight for the Democratic Nomination
Amy Walter
August 16, 2019
National Politics
The Iowa Caucus Is a Frontrunners' Nightmare
Amy Walter
August 9, 2019
National Politics
More Debates, More Problems?
Amy Walter
August 2, 2019
National Politics
Race and Immigration Divide Democrats Too
Amy Walter
July 24, 2019
National Politics
Suburbs Were the Battleground of 2018. Why Are Both Sides Doing Everything They Can to Alienate Them in 2020?
Amy Walter
July 18, 2019
National Politics
How Durable Is Biden’s “Electability” Message?
Amy Walter
July 9, 2019
National Politics
What to Make of the Democratic Debates
Amy Walter
June 28, 2019
National Politics
Can Warren Continue to Rise?
Amy Walter
June 19, 2019
National Politics
Are Voter Opinions on Trump as Stable as They Seem?
Amy Walter
June 7, 2019
National Politics
Getting Perspective on the Presidency
Amy Walter
May 30, 2019
National Politics
Democrats and the Enthusiasm Gap
Amy Walter
May 24, 2019
National Politics
The Electability Trap
Amy Walter
May 8, 2019
National Politics
The Economy and the Election
Amy Walter
May 2, 2019
National Politics
Restoration Versus Revolution
Amy Walter
April 25, 2019
National Politics
It’s Bernie’s World (And 2020 Democrats Are All Living in It)
Amy Walter
April 19, 2019
National Politics
Look at the Forest, Not the Trees: What We Do and Don't Know About 2020
Amy Walter
April 9, 2019
National Politics
Did Trump Just Throw Democrats a Lifeline on Health Care?
Amy Walter
March 28, 2019
National Politics
Why the Fight About the Electoral College Is About More Than the Electoral College
Amy Walter
March 20, 2019
National Politics
Battleground States Then (2012/2016) vs. Now (2018/2019)
Amy Walter
March 14, 2019
National Politics
The Roots of Our Division
Amy Walter
March 5, 2019
National Politics
Did the Cohen Testimony Change Anything?
Amy Walter
February 28, 2019
National Politics
Are Democratic Primary Voters Feeling "The Bern"?
Amy Walter
February 22, 2019
National Politics
How Does the "Blue Wall" Look for 2020?
Amy Walter
February 14, 2019
National Politics
How Left Will Democrats Go in 2020?
Amy Walter
February 7, 2019
National Politics
For Democratic Presidential Hopefuls, a Trail Paved With Regret
Amy Walter
January 25, 2019
National Politics
Trump Is Unifying Democrats Instead of Consolidating His Base
Amy Walter
January 17, 2019
National Politics
Introducing The Cook Political Report's 2020 Electoral College Ratings
Amy Walter
January 11, 2019
National Politics
What We Should Look for and What We Can Ignore in 2020 Polling
Amy Walter
December 19, 2018
National Politics
A Most Unpredictable Road to the 2020 Democratic Nomination
Amy Walter
December 13, 2018
National Politics
Trump's 2016 Showing Was the Most Important Factor in 2018 House Races
Amy Walter
November 14, 2018
National Politics
Why Aren't Democrats More Excited About the 2018 Results
Amy Walter
November 9, 2018
National Politics
Final Week Fundamentals
Amy Walter
November 1, 2018
National Politics
Same as It Ever Was...
Amy Walter
October 23, 2018
National Politics
A Referendum on Trump or Pelosi?
Amy Walter
October 18, 2018
National Politics
Evaluating Enthusiasm With Less Than a Month to Go
Amy Walter
October 10, 2018
National Politics
The War That Never Ends
Amy Walter
October 5, 2018
National Politics
The 2018 Impact on the 2020 Democratic Nomination
Amy Walter
September 26, 2018
National Politics
Is Winning Women Enough for Democrats to Win the House?
Amy Walter
September 21, 2018
National Politics
This Election Is All About Trump - Not Obama
Amy Walter
September 11, 2018
National Politics
Getting to Know White Voters
Amy Walter
August 29, 2018
National Politics
Who Wins If the Talk Turns to Impeachment?
Amy Walter
August 23, 2018
National Politics
What Did Campaigns Advertise About This Primary Season?
Amy Walter
August 16, 2018
House Overview
What August Ratings Can Tell Us About November Results
Amy Walter
August 2, 2018
National Politics
Can Republicans Bridge the Gender Gap?
Amy Walter
July 27, 2018
National Politics
But, Will It Matter for the Midterms?
Amy Walter
July 19, 2018
National Politics
A Glimpse Into What the Democratic Freshman Class May Look Like
Amy Walter
July 12, 2018
National Politics
Are Democrats Ready to Make Immigration an Issue in the Midterms?
Amy Walter
June 26, 2018
National Politics
Good News for Republicans, It's Not 2006
Amy Walter
June 21, 2018
National Politics
Trump Is Everything Voters Hoped/Feared He Would Be
Amy Walter
June 13, 2018
National Politics
How to Define a Wave
Amy Walter
June 7, 2018
California House
The Party *Doesn’t* Decide
Amy Walter
May 31, 2018
National Politics
Has the Blue Wave Already Crested?
Amy Walter
May 23, 2018
National Politics
What Do We Know With Just Under Six Months to Go
Amy Walter
May 17, 2018
National Politics
It's Republicans, Not Democrats, Who Are Focusing on Trump in Campaign Ads
Based on what you hear from the chattering class in DC, you’d think that Democrats are all but committed to running on nothing but an “anti-Trump” message in 2018. Democratic leaders, including cable…
Amy Walter
May 8, 2018
National Politics
How to Define 2018's Version of the Year of the Woman
Amy Walter
May 7, 2018
National Politics
If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don't They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?
Amy Walter
April 26, 2018
National Politics
Choose Your Own Adventure: 2020 Presidential Edition
Amy Walter
April 19, 2018
National Politics
Trump Didn't Break the Speakership, It Was Already Broken
Amy Walter
April 12, 2018
National Politics
The Trump Tension Within The GOP
Amy Walter
April 9, 2018
National Charts
Is the Trump Bump Real?
Amy Walter
March 28, 2018
National Politics
Deja Vu All Over Again. Health Care Takes Center Stage in 2018 Campaigns
Amy Walter
March 22, 2018
Pennsylvania House
Conor Lamb Ran as a Change Agent in PA-18. So Are Lots of Other Democrats
Amy Walter
March 16, 2018
National Politics
Trump Gets More Positive Ad Cover Than Obama Did at This Point in 2014 Cycle
Amy Walter
March 9, 2018
National Politics
Trump's Branding Plan vs. GOP's 2018 Election Plan
Amy Walter
March 7, 2018
National Politics
The Economy Is Improving, but It's Not Helping the GOP's Image
Amy Walter
March 1, 2018
National Politics
It's Not All About the NRA
Amy Walter
February 22, 2018
National Politics
Defining the Terms of the Tax Reform Debate
Amy Walter
February 15, 2018
National Politics
It's Tribalism Not Trump
There has been a lot of hand-wringing in DC these days about the way in which President Trump has undermined the legitimacy of our nation’s top law enforcement agencies. Trump’s steady stream of…
Amy Walter
February 8, 2018
National Politics
For Tax Reform to Get More Popular, Trump Needs to Get More Popular
Amy Walter
February 2, 2018
National Politics
What to Make of All These New and Often Conflicting Generic Ballot Polls?
If you are confused about what to make of the latest slew of polling data about control of Congress in 2018, you are not alone. On the so-called generic ballot question which asks voters if they’d…
Amy Walter
January 25, 2018
National Politics
The Map Has Changed, but the Math Remains the Same
Amy Walter
January 18, 2018
National Politics
(Don’t) Miss Independents
Listen to cable TV or almost any political discussion these days and you’ll hear the term “the base” a lot. “Isn’t this all about Trump keeping his base happy?” or, “will the Democratic base accept a…
Amy Walter
January 11, 2018
National Politics
Can the Tax Bill Unite a Divided GOP?
Amy Walter
December 21, 2017
National Politics
Paul Ryan Is More Than A Policy Wonk
Amy Walter
December 15, 2017
National Politics
The Kübler-Ross Politics of 2017
In just one year, we’ve seen a remarkable shift in political fortunes for the party in power. They have lost high profile races in a light blue state (Virginia) and a dark red one (Alabama). They…
Amy Walter
December 13, 2017
National Politics
Political Fallout From Franken Resignation
Even before Sen. Al Franken took to the Senate floor to announce his resignation Thursday afternoon, theories about its broader political implications were already flying fast and furious. In sum,…
Amy Walter
December 7, 2017
National Politics
It’s the Economy Stupid or Is It?
Amy Walter
December 7, 2017
National Politics
Democrats Missed Their Opportunity
Amy Walter
November 28, 2017
House Overview
A Wave Is a Comin'
Amy Walter
November 16, 2017
National Politics
Laws of Political Gravity Dragging Down Republicans
About a year ago at this time, many of us in Washington, DC were trying to catch our breath, still reeling from the political upset that blindsided us. Many of us were wondering if the rulebook of…
Amy Walter
November 10, 2017
House Overview
When Should We Start Paying Attention to the Congressional Generic Ballot Test?
Amy Walter
November 2, 2017
National Politics
The Midterms and Mueller
Amy Walter
October 26, 2017
National Politics
Why Bipartisanship Is Losing and Polarization Is Winning
Of all the great work done by Pew Research Center, one of my favorites is their Political Typology—a deep dive into the issues that define and divide the two parties (including intra-party schisms)…
Amy Walter
October 25, 2017
Ohio House
OH-12: Tiberi Departure Doesn't Change Solid R Rating (For Now)
Amy Walter
October 20, 2017
National Politics
All Politics Is Local, With a Twist
Amy Walter
October 18, 2017
National Politics
Are Republicans Going to Get “Pelosi-ed” in 2018?
Amy Walter
October 10, 2017
National Politics
Democrats' Leftward Shift and Its Impact on 2020
Amy Walter
October 5, 2017
National Politics
A Divided Party Cannot Stand. Or Can It?
Eight years after the rise of the Tea Party, the GOP remains engaged in intra-party warfare. Capturing all levers of political power in Washington has done nothing to temper the deep-seeded tension…
Amy Walter
September 27, 2017
National Politics
Trump Won't Lose His Base on DACA
A common parlor game here in Washington – one that has been played since 2016 – is “when will the GOP base break from Trump?” It didn’t happen with the Access Hollywood tape. Or the travel ban. Or…
Amy Walter
September 20, 2017
National Politics
Can This Marriage Be Saved?
Amy Walter
August 30, 2017
National Politics
What Defines Trump
If it’s not already obvious by now, President Trump’s tangled, mangled and bungled response to Charlottesville reminds us that his is a presidency run on gut and instinct and fealty to his base.…
Amy Walter
August 17, 2017
National Politics
Trump Triangulates
Historically, a sitting president with a 39 percent approval rating would represent existential danger to his party’s prospects in the midterm elections. When the president falters, so does his party…
Amy Walter
August 9, 2017
National Politics
Mixed Messages on Enthusiasm and Engagement
One of the most important factors in every election is turn-out. Predicting who turns out, of course, is tricky. History tells us that angry people vote. The more enraged a voter is about issues/the…
Amy Walter
July 31, 2017
National Politics
Keeping Democrats "Better Deal" in Perspective
Amy Walter
July 26, 2017
National Politics
What We Learned From Obamacare Repeal Fail and What It Could Mean Going Forward
With the collapse – for now – of GOP efforts to repeal Obamacare, there’s plenty of blame to go around. But, there are also important lessons to take about why it failed and what it may mean for…
Amy Walter
July 18, 2017
National Politics
Where Americans Agree—and Disagree—on Civics and Democracy
In this era of deep polarization and distrust, it seems as if Americans are incapable of agreeing with each other on anything or anyone. But, is it really as bad as it looks? Are we so divided that…
Amy Walter
July 12, 2017
National Politics
Republican Senators Left Exposed in Health Care Ad Wars
Amy Walter
July 12, 2017
House Overview
How Big Is the House Playing Field?
In the wake of the GA-06 special election, it’s worth taking a look at just how broad (or narrow) the universe of competitive House districts looks going into 2018. However, defining that universe is…
Amy Walter
June 27, 2017
National Politics
The Pelosi Blame Game
Amy Walter
June 22, 2017
National Politics
Running to Stand Still
So much is happening in Washington and yet nothing is happening at all. The investigation into Russian meddling into the 2016 campaign continues to get lots of attention (and produce a lot of leaks…
Amy Walter
June 15, 2017
National Politics
Smells Like Team Spirit
As my colleagues and I have been writing for the last few weeks, a clear “enthusiasm” gap is opening between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats more engaged (or is it enraged?) than their GOP…
Amy Walter
June 7, 2017
National Politics
Who's Winning the TV Ad Messaging Wars on Health Care Reform?
The fight for Obamacare repeal is moving on two separate, but parallel tracks. One is a legislative track to a future and final Republican health care reform bill; a bill that can make it through the…
Amy Walter
May 25, 2017
National Politics
Will GOP Fall Into the Enthusiasm Gap?
Another week of crazy at the White House begets another week of talk among the political chattering class about “when the GOP base will abandon” President Trump. Recent polling suggests that’s not…
Amy Walter
May 17, 2017
National Politics
Americans Say They Want More Government. What Does That Mean?
Much was made of recent polling showing a spike in the percentage of Americans who say they want a more active or bigger government. An April NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 57 percent of…
Amy Walter
May 9, 2017
National Politics
GOP Voters Sticking With Trump, but Will They Stick With GOP in 2018?
One of the biggest questions during the 2016 campaign was if the GOP party would ever accept Donald Trump, an outsider to the party, as its standard bearer. More than once during 2016 I was convinced…
Amy Walter
May 3, 2017
National Politics
Trump's Next 100 Days Challenge
So, here we are at President Trump’s first 100 day mark. As we’ve been reminded over and over again this week, Trump, when compared to presidents past, is the most unpopular at this stage of his…
Amy Walter
April 24, 2017
National Politics
What Matters and What Doesn't in White House Palace Intrigue Stories
There’s nothing those inside the beltway love more than a good White House “palace intrigue” story. It’s the kind of stuff that DC’s gossip driven culture is built for. But, what about folks who don’…
Amy Walter
April 14, 2017
National Politics
What's a Democrat to Do?
If schadenfreude made a sound, D.C. would be reverberating with it. Democrats and #NeverTrump-ers are gleefully gloating as the Trump administration stumbles and fumbles its way through its first 100…
Amy Walter
April 5, 2017
National Politics
How to Lose a Majority
The very public intra-party fight between President Trump and the Freedom Caucus is just the latest twist in the ongoing fight over the philosophical, strategic and ideological direction of the…
Amy Walter
April 1, 2017
National Politics
The Pelosi Factor
Amy Walter
March 22, 2017
National Politics
Mind the (Geographic) Gap In 2018
My colleague David Wasserman had a tremendous piece last week on the dearth of politically competitive counties in America. In crunching the data from the 2016 campaign, David found that the…
Amy Walter
March 17, 2017
National Politics
Trump's First Test
Stuff just got real here in Washington. With the introduction of the Obamacare repeal/replace legislation (the American Health Care Act) we are now going to finally find out if an ideologically…
Amy Walter
March 9, 2017
National Politics
We Know Less Than We Think We Do
Let’s face it. No one really knows what’s going to happen this year. The president and his aides pride themselves on misdirection and unpredictability, even as they are firmly committed to a populist…
Amy Walter
March 2, 2017
National
Divided States of America
Amy Walter
February 24, 2017
National Politics
Trump's Transactional Voters
Amy Walter
February 15, 2017
National Politics
Can What Worked in 2016 Translate to 2018?
There’s been lots of uncertainty and confusion in these first three weeks of the Trump Administration. But one thing is quite clear: Trump is going to run his White House like he ran his campaign.…
Amy Walter
February 8, 2017
National Politics
Trump Voters Expect Drastic Change and Jobs. Unity? Not so Much
As the professional political class continues to debate the reasons for Donald Trump’s victory, those who voted for him are very clear on why he won and what they expect from him once he’s in office…
Amy Walter
December 15, 2016
National Politics
How Trump Broke the Blue Wall
President-elect Donald Trump’s success at breaking the so-called “blue wall” – those Rust Belt states that had voted for a Democrat in every election since at least 1992 – was the key to his victory…
Amy Walter
December 9, 2016
National Politics
Trump's Conventional Cabinet
In many ways President-elect Trump is exactly the guy he was when he was candidate Trump. He remains obsessed with real or perceived slights — using twitter to lash out at those who he dissed or…
Amy Walter
December 1, 2016
National Politics
The Story of the Suburbs
The media has paid a lot of attention throughout the campaign and afterward on rural and working-class white America. Not nearly as much attention has been spent on suburban America, whose college-…
Amy Walter
November 14, 2016
National Politics
The Shock Heard 'Round the World
I got it wrong. Really wrong. Trump didn't just win, he crushed it. This is truly the most shocking thing that I have seen in my lifetime. So, what happened? We are going to be digging through the…
Amy Walter
November 9, 2016
National Politics
New Electoral College Ratings Show a Tightening Race, Math Continues to Favor Clinton
A tightening race nationally has also translated into tightening at the state level. States that were trending Trump’s way in September started to slip away from him in early October. Now, with the…
Amy Walter
November 3, 2016
National Politics
Electoral College Math Continues to Favor Clinton
There have been a lot of twists and turns to this campaign, but two things have remained constant. One, whenever the focus is on one candidate it benefits the other one. This is the byproduct of a…
Amy Walter
November 1, 2016
National Politics
New Electoral College Ratings: Texas and North Carolina Shift in Clinton's Favor
Less than two weeks before the election, Trump continues to struggle to lock down traditionally Republican states — even Texas and Utah — and lags behind Clinton in key battleground states he would…
Amy Walter
October 28, 2016
National Politics
New Electoral College Ratings Favor Clinton
With less than three weeks to go in election 2016 it is clear that Trump has abandoned any precept of fighting for persuadable voters. Instead, as he showed in every debate including the third and…
Amy Walter
October 20, 2016
National Politics
Does Clinton's Margin of Victory Matter?
With just about three weeks to go until this campaign is put out of its misery, we find Donald Trump impossibly behind and the Hillary Clinton campaign and her allies pushing to expand the map. The…
Amy Walter
October 19, 2016
National Politics
Will This Deja Vu Be Different?
Over the last year we’ve witnessed a familiar pattern: Trump does or says something controversial/contentious/reprehensible (think: attacks on Judge Curiel and the Khan family), his poll numbers…
Amy Walter
October 12, 2016
National Politics
Debate Was Like Trench Warfare Which Benefits Clinton
Lincoln-Douglas this was not. In fact, the debate Sunday night between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was ugly, angry and soul-crushing. It was less a forum for undecided voters than a grudge match…
Amy Walter
October 10, 2016
National Politics
Will Taxes Trip Up Trump?
In a campaign where the normal laws of political gravity often feel as if they don’t apply, it’s hard to know just how impactful the New York Times report of Donald Trump’s tax returns will play out…
Amy Walter
October 3, 2016
National Politics
Clinton Prevails in Downer of a Debate
The first debate of the 2016 fall season has concluded with a whimper more than a bang. If you were expecting the sky to fall or the race to be completed upended, you were sorely disappointed. If you…
Amy Walter
September 27, 2016
National Politics
New September Electoral College Ratings
At the mid-point of September, Hillary Clinton has 21 states plus the District of Columbia and three of Maine’s four electoral votes that are Solidly, Likely or Leaning in Democratic for a total of…
Amy Walter
September 23, 2016
National Politics
50 Days Out. The Questions That Remain
This is it. The final sprint to the November election has begun. But, even with just a couple months to go, there are still some questions yet to be answered that will have a big impact on the final…
Amy Walter
September 22, 2016
National Politics
Hillary's Self-Inflicted Headwinds
When it comes to the current political environment, Hillary Clinton couldn’t ask for much better. The president sits at a 50 percent approval rating. Gas is just a little over $2. A new income and…
Amy Walter
September 15, 2016
National Politics
Summer Swoon or Sign of Deeper Problems for Clinton?
Donald Trump had a terrible June and July. Hillary Clinton had a terrible mid to late August. Both were victims of self-inflicted wounds - one attacked a Gold Star family the other set up a private…
Amy Walter
September 8, 2016
National Politics
A Tale of Two Elections
If you only paid attention to the presidential primaries you’d come away with the impression that this is an anti-status quo, anti-establishment kind of year. Voters have rewarded brash outsiders who…
Amy Walter
September 1, 2016
National Politics
Trump Is Trying to Run a “Normal” Campaign. Is It Too Late?
Newly installed Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway is doing her best to keep the notoriously off-message candidate on script. He’s moving – or more accurately – stumbling into a more centrist…
Amy Walter
August 30, 2016
National Politics
Of Electoral Maps, Emails and Pivots
With just under three months to go in election 2016, some things, specifically the Electoral College math, look much clearer. Clinton not only has a decided lead, but she has a deeper, wider path to…
Amy Walter
August 24, 2016
National Politics
Can Trump Catch Up?
Hillary Clinton has a solid lead in the national polls. Donald Trump is trailing in every swing state and is underperforming in states easily carried by past GOP nominees such as Georgia and Arizona…
Amy Walter
August 11, 2016
National Politics
Where the Race for the White House Stands 100 Days Out
Well, we’ve made it. We have both conventions under our belt. Labor Day is (sadly for a summer enthusiast like myself), just around the corner. And, we are just under the magic 100-day mark before…
Amy Walter
August 3, 2016
National Politics
The 2016 Race Is Not Over
According to the chatter in Washington and on Twitter today, the election is over. The Donald Trump campaign literally imploded, sending red hot shards of burning metal across the countryside. The…
Amy Walter
August 3, 2016
National Politics
Swimming in the Riptide: Six Things to Watch This Week and Beyond
Like a swimmer caught in a rip-tide, I need to stop fighting this election and start going with it. I have spent most of this year trying to explain why things aren’t working out the way they are “…
Amy Walter
July 25, 2016
National Politics
What We've Learned From the RNC Thus Far
It is day three of the RNC convention and I am struggling. The late nights and early mornings are taking their toll. I am no longer the young and flexible person I was at my first convention in 1992…
Amy Walter
July 20, 2016
National Politics
Can a VP Pick Fix Trump and Clinton's Problems?
I have a complicated relationship with the vice presidential speculation phase of the presidential campaign. Actually, it’s not all that complicated. I don’t like it. My breaking point came in 2012…
Amy Walter
July 13, 2016
National Politics
Obama's Rise Isn't Lifting All Boats
While both parties decry of the state of the economy and terrorism shows no signs of abating, President Obama's job approval rating in every major poll out this month - NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/…
Amy Walter
June 29, 2016
National Politics
When Conventional Wisdom Gets Ahead of the Voters
There’s no doubt that Donald J. Trump has had a bad few weeks. His party remains split over his nomination. He fired his campaign manager and his campaign has less money in the bank than some state…
Amy Walter
June 22, 2016
National Politics
Trump Will Be the Nominee. Period.
This election year has been rife with conspiracy theories. Most of them, of course, have been peddled by Donald Trump. The most recent - that Trump is somehow going to be denied the nomination in…
Amy Walter
June 16, 2016
National Politics
A Time for Change Election With a Status Quo Candidate
So, it has come to this. American voters will have a choice in November between the most unconventional, disruptive “change” candidate of our time and an establishment politician who has been part of…
Amy Walter
June 9, 2016
National Politics
Is Trump Expanding the Electorate?
There’s little doubt that Donald Trump has changed the rules of campaigning in the 21st century. Or, more accurately, he’s the first to understand how to effectively campaign in a 21st century media…
Amy Walter
June 2, 2016
National Politics
Focus on the Fundamentals
Trump’s unexpected primary victory has led many to reassess his prospects for the general election. After all, Trump won a major party nomination without doing all the things that campaigns are…
Amy Walter
May 26, 2016
National Politics
Anger Management
Americans are angry, say the cable TV pundits and armchair political observers. They are angry at a dysfunctional Washington, D.C. Angry at the out-of-touch political class. Angry at an out-of-…
Amy Walter
May 19, 2016
National Politics
The Ryan/Trump Battle Is Less Important Than It Looks
Talk to many voters these days and you get an exasperated response to the question of who they are voting for this November. “I just can’t vote for Hillary,” they’ll say, “but, Trump? ugh! No way.”…
Amy Walter
May 11, 2016
National Politics
New Electoral Scorecard Ratings in 13 States
This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic…
Amy Walter
May 5, 2016
National Politics
Trump, Hillary and the Battle for Women and White Voters
Talk to most Republican strategists these days and their views of GOP prospects for 2016 range from depressed to despondent. Democrats, however, are far from giddy. Their opinion of the 2016 Clinton…
Amy Walter
May 5, 2016
National Politics
The General Election Starts Now
This Tuesday marked the unofficial end of the 2016 primary season. Ladies and gentleman, barring some unexpected turn of events the fall matchup for President of the United States will be between…
Amy Walter
April 27, 2016
National Politics
Trump, Clinton Get Their Groove Back. Now What?
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump easily won Tuesday’s New York primary. That was entirely expected and consistent with recent polling. Here’s what the road ahead looks like for the two frontrunners…
Amy Walter
April 20, 2016
National Politics
Winning the Delegate Battle, Losing the PR War
For all his boasting about his business acumen, it’s pretty clear that Donald Trump stinks at the nuts and bolts of running a campaign. His campaign has failed to execute the most basic functions of…
Amy Walter
April 13, 2016
National Politics
Wisconsin More of an Outlier Than a Turning Point
Senators Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders romped to big wins in the Badger State last night, halting the momentum of frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. However, it did little to change the…
Amy Walter
April 6, 2016
National Politics
Why the Electability Argument Isn’t Working
Poll after poll finds Donald Trump the least qualified Republican to beat Hillary Clinton in November. And yet, he keeps winning GOP primary contests. Is this because Republican primary voters…
Amy Walter
March 30, 2016
National Politics
The Trump Train Rolls Forward
Despite a concerted effort by many in the GOP to derail him, Donald Trump remains on track to capture the nomination. That’s not to say that the track is entirely clear. Kasich’s success in Ohio was…
Amy Walter
March 16, 2016
National Politics
What Donald Trump Has in Common With McCain and Romney
It’s very hard to categorize a “typical” Trump voter. While he does best with more downscale white voters, that alone isn’t what has propelled him to frontrunner status. The real key to his success…
Amy Walter
March 14, 2016
National Politics
Tuesday Primaries Changed Everything and Nothing at All
The results of Tuesday’s primary contests brought us some surprises - a Bernie win, a Rubio collapse and a Trump romp. But, it didn’t fundamentally alter the trajectory of this campaign. Hillary…
Amy Walter
March 9, 2016
National Politics
Super Tuesday = Super for Trump
There are only two real storylines out of Tuesday night’s SEC primary: 1. Trump is on a roll and more likely than not, on a path to the GOP nomination; and 2. there is no consensus alternative to…
Amy Walter
March 2, 2016
National Politics
The Three R's Enabling Trump
I admit it. I was wrong about Trump’s staying power as a candidate. Not only is he winning primaries, but he has a real path to winning the nomination. Why has he succeeded when I thought he would…
Amy Walter
February 25, 2016
National Politics
What We Learned From Nevada and South Carolina
1) Hillary firewall holds; Bernie hits his ceiling Despite a last-minute surge of “Bern-mentum” and weakening support among Latinos, Hillary Clinton put up a strong showing at the Nevada caucuses…
Amy Walter
February 21, 2016
National Politics
New Hampshire: When the Heart Beat the Head
The quick takeaways from the Granite State: 1. Trump and Sanders won big, but haven’t put to rest questions about their electability and 2. The GOP establishment vacuum remains, but Marco Rubio, the…
Amy Walter
February 10, 2016
National Politics
Making Sense of Iowa
If you predicted that Ted Cruz would beat Donald Trump by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton would beat Bernie Sanders, you deserve a special pundit medal of honor. But, the topsy-turvy results of…
Amy Walter
February 2, 2016
National Politics
The Audacity of Hope: The Trump Version
I have no idea what is going to happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. If the polls are correct, Donald Trump is on his way to victory in both states. On the Democratic side, Iowa is a coin-toss and…
Amy Walter
January 27, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Debate Wrap Up: Change vs. Status Quo
No one really won and no one lost. Well, except for poor Gov. Martin O’Malley who seemed to have been given a total of 46 seconds of talking time by the NBC moderators. It was clear from the outset…
Amy Walter
January 18, 2016
National Politics
An Unusual Campaign Has More Traditional Look in Iowa Than in New Hampshire
For an election that has been anything but conventional, the latest Marist/NBC polling out of Iowa finds things lining up in familiar ways. For Trump or Sanders to win they need new, non-traditional…
Amy Walter
January 13, 2016
National Politics
Trump's Support Among Non-GOP Voters is Not as Problematic as We Think
One of the biggest “known unknowns” of the GOP primary is whether Donald Trump will be able to translate his raucous rally goers into actual votes come election time. There has been rampant…
Amy Walter
January 7, 2016
National Politics
What Mattered (and What Didn't) in Last GOP Debate of 2015
If you were looking for the fifth GOP debate of this topsy-turvy 2015 to upend or reshuffle this race, you came away sorely disappointed. Instead, this foreign policy focused forum merely solidified…
Amy Walter
December 16, 2015
National Politics
Five Tables That Explain Rise of Trump and Durability of Anti-Establishment Message
To understand why a majority of GOP voters are currently supporting candidates who espouse a populist-heavy, anti-establishment message, you need to look no further than the data laid out below. This…
Amy Walter
December 14, 2015
National Politics
The Four Most Important Questions in GOP Race for President
Thus far, this campaign has provided more questions than answers. I have dubbed the motto for 2016: WTF?!. But, some questions are more important – and the answers more consequential – than others.…
Amy Walter
December 9, 2015
National Politics
Cruz's Conservative Conundrum
Ted Cruz has the same plan to win the GOP nomination as he does to win the general election: appeal to, motivate and turn-out evangelical and disaffected and disgruntled conservative voters. While…
Amy Walter
November 30, 2015
National Politics
Where Does the 2016 Race Stand Post-Paris
In the wake of the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris there's been a lot of chatter here in DC about their impact on the 2016 elections. Will the "outsiders" be pushed out as voters flock to more…
Amy Walter
November 18, 2015
National Politics
Hillary Can't Count on the Economy
If you read the coverage of the October jobs report you'd think Americans should have been popping champagne and singing happy days are here again. Jobs up. Wages up. Unemployment down. The…
Amy Walter
November 11, 2015
National Politics
The Carly Conundrum
To the many confounding things about the 2016 GOP primary (the staying power of Trump and Carson, Walker’s early exit), we can add the question of where Carly Fiorina fits into all of this. She’s…
Amy Walter
November 5, 2015
National Politics
How "Blue Zone" GOP Could Veto a Conservative Nominee
In a few months, after Iowa and New Hampshire begin to winnow the field, the GOP nomination race could boil down to an epic final between a candidate with a more pragmatic image, such as Marco Rubio…
Amy Walter
November 4, 2015
National Politics
What Did We Learn From the CNBC GOP Debate
The GOP CNBC debate on Wednesday was ultimately designed for and about the GOP establishment in both the kind of questions asked and the way in which they were asked. And, that, not surprisingly, did…
Amy Walter
October 29, 2015
National Politics
The Passive Path to the Presidency
So, here’s where the race to be the leader of the free world stands today. Sen. Ted Cruz, he who doesn’t back down from a fight, is sitting back and waiting for Donald Trump and Ben Carson to flame…
Amy Walter
October 21, 2015
National Politics
What Did We Learn From the Democratic Debate
This was a whole lot easier to analyze than the GOP ones. There were fewer candidates, of course, but the winner was also a lot easier to spot. Hillary Clinton was poised, comfortable,confident and…
Amy Walter
October 14, 2015
National Politics
Trump's Second Act, Carson's First
p>In a sit-down interview with the Washington Post, Donald Trump all but admitted that his bombastic, shoot from the lip campaign was running out of steam and he needs a second act. The polls (of…
Amy Walter
October 9, 2015
National Politics
The Consistent Clinton Coalition
For all the talk about the strength of Hillary Clinton’s coalition against Sanders, it’s not much different from the one she put together in 2008. The one (and very important) exception is her…
Amy Walter
October 7, 2015
National Politics
How Do Primary Voters See the Candidates
By now, everyone has an opinion on who “won” and “lost” 1) the summer; 2) the last debate and 3) the momentum to win the party nomination. What’s more important is to see how actual voters perceive…
Amy Walter
September 30, 2015
National Politics
Why Walker Failed and Where the GOP Field Stands Now
What did we learn from Scott Walker’s very brief foray into presidential politics? And, what does the race for the nomination look like now that he’s gone? What we learned: 1. Candidates matter: I…
Amy Walter
September 23, 2015
National Politics
What Did We Learn From the GOP Debate
The obvious take-away: three hours + 11 candidates + evening time slot = ugh. By hour 2.5 it was time to wrap up. Here are my observations from the marathon debate:1. Jeb is simply not good at…
Amy Walter
September 17, 2015
National Politics
The Sound Of Settling
At its core, politics is all about timing. Are you the right candidate with the right message at the right moment? At some level, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton would seem to be the right candidates…
Amy Walter
September 16, 2015
National Politics
In An Era Of Trump, Do Campaign Fundamentals Matter?
At this point, it feels like we are in some kind of an alternative universe election where up is down, black is white and east is west. On the GOP side, a blowhard reality TV star insults a war hero…
Amy Walter
September 9, 2015
National Politics
Winners and Losers From Summer of Trump
Like a blockbuster movie, Donald Trump has dominated the summer. But, plenty of other candidates have been on the move too; some went up while others saw their fortunes dip. As we countdown to Labor…
Amy Walter
August 26, 2015
National Politics
Can Trump Turn From Summer Fling to Serious Relationship?
When it comes to picking candidates for president, summer is for dating and winter is for mating. The question is not so much why Donald Trump and other anti-establishment candidates like Ben Carson…
Amy Walter
August 18, 2015
National Politics
Voters Are More Scared Than They Are Angry
Does the rise of brash speaking candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders suggest a new, more potent level of anger among the American electorate? An anger that has reached a tipping point and…
Amy Walter
July 31, 2015
National Politics
Don't Assess 2016 with Assumptions
A lot of conventional wisdom floating out there about 2016 is grounded more in opinion and assumption than in facts or data. And, as your teacher or mom may have taught you, "assumption makes an A.S.…
Amy Walter
July 23, 2015
National Politics
The Long, Trump Summer
I promised myself that I would not write about Donald Trump. There is approximately zero percent chance that he will be the GOP nominee. Moreover, the odds are incredibly small that his candidacy…
Amy Walter
July 15, 2015
National Politics
A Tale of Two Governors
In politics, you have two choices: you can get in front of a wave or get slammed by a wave. Earlier this spring we saw Indiana Governor Mike Pence get walloped by a wave of his own making with his…
Amy Walter
June 24, 2015
National Politics
Democrats Opposition to Trade is Nothing New
With his attempts to woo Democrats unsuccessful, President Obama turned to Republicans this week to help rescue his Asia trade hopes. Obama has succeeded in the first step, with the House voting to…
Amy Walter
June 17, 2015
National Politics
Walker's Tricky Balancing Act
What makes Scott Walker such a formidable candidate in the primary is also what makes him vulnerable in a general election. As Walker flexes his conservative muscle on everything from immigration to…
Amy Walter
June 11, 2015
National Politics
Jeb Goes from Fragile Frontrunner to Underdog
With each passing day, Jeb Bush looks weaker and weaker. While he has a top notch political team and (reportedly) tons of cash, he is dropping, not, rising in the polls. For a party desperate to win…
Amy Walter
June 2, 2015
National Politics
Hillary's Rising Unfavorable Ratings Don't Tell the Whole Story
Watching coverage of the Clinton campaign, one longtime Democratic strategist told me, is like watching someone getting pecked by ducks. One day it’s another revelation about the murky Clinton Global…
Amy Walter
May 27, 2015
National Politics
Where the GOP Contenders Stand In Iowa
I went to Iowa last weekend to check out the GOP field. Yes, it’s still very early in the process. And, yes one dinner featuring eleven potential candidates and 1,200 or so GOP voters can’t tell you…
Amy Walter
May 20, 2015
National Politics
Why Hillary Needs Obama
Every presidential election is a response to the current president, even when the current president isn’t seeking re-election. If people don't like the guy in the White House, it’s almost impossible…
Amy Walter
May 13, 2015
National Politics
The GOP Dating Game
After two unsuccessful marriages to guys named McCain and Romney, GOP primary voters are more interested in playing the field this year than in settling down. That's the best explanation I can come…
Amy Walter
May 6, 2015
National Politics
Bring Back the Smoke-Filled Rooms
Politics is broken. Washington is dysfunctional. The best way to fix it, goes the conventional thinking, is to destroy the system itself. Rand Paul wants to “defeat the Washington machine,” while…
Amy Walter
May 1, 2015
National Politics
Focus on the Fundamentals, Not the Scooby Van
Almost every hour, it seems, someone is either announcing for President or announcing they are thinking about running for President. There are dozens of stories a day about new hires at SuperPAC's, "…
Amy Walter
April 22, 2015
National Politics
The Promise and the Peril of an Improving Economy
Americans are feeling better about the economy today than they have in years. For the first time since early 2013, more Americans approve of the job Obama's doing on the economy (48 percent) than…
Amy Walter
April 15, 2015
National Politics
Where’s the Real Electoral College Battleground for 2016?
Since Barack Obama’s win in 2008, phrases like “Demographic Destiny” and “blue wall” have become part of the justification for Democrats slight edge in winning the White House in 2016. Demographic…
Amy Walter
April 8, 2015
National Politics
Consensus Conservative in 2016?
Many are looking at the 2016 GOP primary in the same way they look at recent congressional GOP primaries: a contest between the Tea Party or very conservative forces versus the traditional…
Amy Walter
March 25, 2015
National Politics
Marco’s Moment?
For the last couple of weeks there’s been plenty of buzz about an imminent Marco Rubio “Moment.” As one non-affiliated GOP strategist remarked to me the other day, “Rubio is simply the best natural…
Amy Walter
March 18, 2015
National Politics
Jeb Bush: Fragile Frontrunner
Ask anyone on the Acela corridor who the frontrunner and/or likely nominee for the GOP is/will be and you are most likely to hear the name Jeb Bush. After all, he’s going to have bucketloads of cash…
Amy Walter
March 11, 2015
National Politics
Is Scott Walker the GOP's Barack Obama?
Scott Walker in 2015 is a lot like Barack Obama circa 2007; he’s relatively unknown and yet well-known at the same time. Obama’s speech at the DNC in 2004 propelled him to rock-star status among the…
Amy Walter
March 4, 2015
National Politics
What the DHS Standoff Reveals About the GOP Demographic Dilemma
Although the congressional standoff over the Department of Homeland Security is being framed as a debate over national security, it is, at its core, the latest example of the GOP divide over how to…
Amy Walter
February 25, 2015
National Politics
The GOP Domestic Divide Vs. Dems ISIS Split
One of the biggest assets for Democrats – especially for Hillary Clinton – going into this next election is the fact that they are much more ideologically united than the GOP. From social issues to…
Amy Walter
February 19, 2015
National Politics
A Different Kind of Security Election
Before every presidential election, we chew over the question of whether this will be a foreign policy or a domestic election. Will we be talking about "security moms" or "soccer moms"? 2016 is going…
Amy Walter
February 11, 2015
National Politics
Changing the Way We Vote Isn't Getting More People To Vote
California is the closest thing we have to a political lab for engineering a solution for the country's voter apathy problem. From permanent absentee voting to term limits and redistricting reform…
Amy Walter
February 4, 2015
National Politics
Skipping Out On Iowa
First, let me say that I really do like Iowa. Of course the weather is terrible, but the people are nice and politically engaged. Des Moines has turned into a pretty good restaurant town and the…
Amy Walter
January 28, 2015
National Politics
The Elevator Pitch For 2016 Candidates
There are enough potential candidates for president (on the GOP side at least) that you need an Excel spreadsheet just to keep them all straight. Instead of a complicated algorithm, I've boiled each…
Amy Walter
January 21, 2015
National Politics
Will Democrats New Economic Message Work?
Many Democrats blame their terrible showing at the ballot box in 2014 on a lack of a clear and compelling economic message. In fact, there were plenty of prescient Democrats we spoke to throughout…
Amy Walter
January 14, 2015
National Politics
“Time For Change” And The 2016 Election
When it comes to making predictions about 2016, there are lots of important numbers to follow. The unemployment rate. Consumer confidence. The president’s approval rating. The horse race polls. But,…
Amy Walter
January 7, 2015
National Politics
What Wave Elections Have Wrought
While there’s still some debate about whether 2014 should be called a “wave” or a “tsunami” or some other sort of nautical disaster, it’s fair to say it looks very similar to the elections of 2006,…
Amy Walter
December 11, 2014
National Politics
Democrats' Downballot Troubles
Democrats lost badly at the congressional level in 2014. That, of course, got a lot of coverage. Democrats also took huge losses at the state level. That didn’t get a lot of attention. State…
Amy Walter
December 3, 2014
National Politics
The Clinton-Warren Binary
There’s an odd binary mindset these days about the Democrats in 2016. Either the party will stick with their current frontrunner and standard bearer Hillary Clinton, or the base will rebel and…
Amy Walter
November 19, 2014
National Politics
Election Night Takeaways
This wasn't just a bad night for Democrats. This was a downright drubbing. So, what happened? All Politics Is National: Democrats believed they could help isolate and insulate their vulnerable…
Amy Walter
November 5, 2014
National Politics
The Obama Drag
One of the outstanding questions left in this election is whether the Democrats' ground operation – an operation that has proven to be far superior to that of Republicans in recent years - will be…
Amy Walter
October 29, 2014
National Politics
The Challenge for a GOP-Controlled Congress in Four Charts
We may not know the results of this election, but we do know this: neither party will have 60 Senate seats. While it’s more likely that Republicans will have the majority in 2015, it will be a very…
Amy Walter
October 22, 2014