Analysis by David Wasserman

co03 Colorado House Tipton Defeat Moves CO-03 From Solid to Likely Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman July 2, 2020
House Overview Meet the Candidates: Four 2020 House Hopefuls In the past week, we met — either virtually or in-person — with four congressional candidates who are adjusting to campaigning in a pandemic. One is seeking to strike up conversations at a distance… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 30, 2020
ny-24 New York House NY-24: Katko Moves from Likely to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman June 26, 2020
booker National Politics Will Tuesday's Primaries Be a Breakthrough for Black Candidates? David Wasserman David Wasserman June 19, 2020
va-5 Virginia House Riggleman Defeat Moves VA-05 from Likely to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman June 16, 2020
david house House Overview House: The Bottom Line in Republicans' 32 Open Seats David Wasserman David Wasserman June 9, 2020
NY-16: Engel in Serious Danger of Losing Primary to the Left New York House NY-16: Engel in Serious Danger of Losing Primary to the Left David Wasserman David Wasserman June 5, 2020
king Iowa House King Primary Defeat Moves IA-04 to Solid Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman June 3, 2020
House Overview House: The Bottom Line in Democrats' 10 Open Seats A key reason Democrats remain in a strong position to retain the House majority is the disparity in open seats: roughly three times as many Republicans (27) are retiring or running for other office… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 22, 2020
garcin California House CA-25: Republicans Triumph, Garcia Starts Out in Toss Up for November David Wasserman David Wasserman May 13, 2020
coronadebate House Overview May 2020 House Overview: Democrats' Advantage Grows David Wasserman David Wasserman May 6, 2020
dw Michigan House MI-03 Remains in Lean Republican Amid Amash's Presidential Pursuit David Wasserman David Wasserman May 1, 2020
House Overview House FEC Update: Republicans Face a Major 2020 Cash Deficit The latest campaign finance reports covering the first quarter of 2020 are in, and they couldn't have been much more brutal for Republicans. Freshman Democrats, continuing to ride a wave of anti-… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 24, 2020
dwass National Politics Pandemic Could Lead to Big Voting Access Disparities in November David Wasserman David Wasserman April 17, 2020
CA-25 California House CA-25: Race to Replace Katie Hill Moves from Lean Democratic to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman April 10, 2020
ky04 Kentucky House KY-04: Will DC's Revulsion Towards Massie Sink Him Back Home? David Wasserman David Wasserman April 3, 2020
Dwass ratings House Overview House Rating Changes: Fall Outlook Shifts in 10 Districts David Wasserman David Wasserman March 27, 2020
dwass California House House Rating Changes: California Primary Edition David Wasserman David Wasserman March 19, 2020
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: Washington to Wyoming This is the final in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our analysis of the most… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 13, 2020
Joe Biden National Politics Biden's Edge for the Nomination is Even Larger Than It Appears David Wasserman David Wasserman March 5, 2020
dw nty National Politics To Beat Trump, Democrats May Need to Break Out of the ‘Whole Foods’ Bubble David Wasserman David Wasserman March 3, 2020
Virginia House 2020 House Bottom Lines: Virginia This is the thirteenth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 28, 2020
National Politics Democrats Have Different Routes to Win the Electoral College. None Are Easy. This article was originally published at nbcnews.com on February 26, 2020. As the Democratic contest hurtles toward South Carolina and Super Tuesday, Democrats face a profound choice as to the… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 27, 2020
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: Utah to Vermont This is the twelfth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our analysis of the most… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 21, 2020
Texas House 2020 House Bottom Lines: Texas The House GOP's "Texodus" — six Republicans are forgoing reelection in 2020 — is one of several reasons Democrats remain favorites to keep their House majority in 2020. Democrats have excellent… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 14, 2020
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: South Carolina to Tennessee This is the tenth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 7, 2020
Iowa Mess National Politics Iowa's Caucuses Were a Debacle, but the Biggest Loser Might Be Warren, Not Biden David Wasserman David Wasserman February 7, 2020
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: Pennsylvania to Rhode Island This is the ninth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 31, 2020
ca25 California House CA-25 Special Election Moves From Lean to Likely Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman January 24, 2020
Dwass National Politics Who Didn't Vote in 2016? Where Each Party Might Have Upside in 2020 David Wasserman David Wasserman January 16, 2020
House Overview 2021 Reapportionment and Redistricting Preview: One Year Out As if a high-stakes presidential race weren't enough, the 2020 Census and 2021 redistricting process is right around the corner. Behind the scenes, the fierce fight over the next decade's political… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 10, 2020
Carwright Pennsylvania House Cartwright's Vote for Impeachment Moves PA-08 to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman December 20, 2019
Amash Michigan House MI-03: Amash's District Moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman December 20, 2019
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: North Carolina to Oregon This is the eighth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 20, 2019
Van Drew New Jersey House Van Drew Party Switch Moves NJ-02 from Toss Up to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman December 16, 2019
House Dems House Overview The House Democrats Most at Risk Over Impeachment David Wasserman David Wasserman December 13, 2019
NC North Carolina House Rating Changes: Final North Carolina Map Boosts House Democrats David Wasserman David Wasserman December 6, 2019
National Politics Democrats Are Making Big Gains in the Suburbs. Here's Why That May Not Be Enough to Beat Trump. The article was originally published on NBC.com on November 27, 2019 Democrats are rightfully ecstatic that they won two of the three 2019 elections for governor in deep red Southern states,… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 6, 2019
Hunter California House Hunter Guilty Plea Improves Republican Prospects of Holding CA-50 David Wasserman David Wasserman December 2, 2019
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: New Jersey to New York This is the seventh in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 22, 2019
NC Map North Carolina House House: North Carolina Map Drama on Track to Net Democrats at Least Two Seats David Wasserman David Wasserman November 21, 2019
two districts House Overview House Rating Changes: A Tale of Two Trump-District Democrats David Wasserman David Wasserman November 15, 2019
king New York House King's Retirement Moves NY-02 From Likely to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman November 11, 2019
National Politics Democratic Wins Come with a Warning Sign: Low African American Voter Turnout The article was originally published on NBC.com on November 6, 2019 Democrats are riding high after apparently unseating GOP Gov. Matt Bevin in Kentucky and winning back majorities in both chambers… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 8, 2019
airport National Politics What U.S. Airports and International Flights Can Tell Us About the 2020 Election David Wasserman David Wasserman November 1, 2019
North Carolina House New North Carolina Map Could Boost House Democrats On Monday, a panel of three North Carolina state judges blocked the current GOP-drawn congressional map from being used for the 2020 elections, ruling it a partisan gerrymander that violates the… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 1, 2019
Hill California House Hill Resignation Moves CA-25 to Lean Democrat David Wasserman David Wasserman October 28, 2019
House House Overview Meet the Candidates: Six Democratic 2020 House Hopefuls David Wasserman David Wasserman October 25, 2019
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: Minnesota to New Hampshire This is the sixth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 18, 2019
New York House Lowey to Retire, NY-17 Remains in Solid Democratic On Thursday, Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey (NY-17) became the second Appropriations Committee chair in a row to announce retirement just months after first taking the gavel. But unlike New Jersey's… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 11, 2019
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: Iowa to Michigan This is the fifth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 4, 2019
collins New York House Collins Resignation Moves NY-27 to Solid Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman September 30, 2019
nancy House Overview The Risks of Impeachment for House Democrats David Wasserman David Wasserman September 27, 2019
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: Georgia to Indiana This is the fourth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 20, 2019
NC North Carolina House Five Takeaways from Republicans' Narrow NC-09 Escape David Wasserman David Wasserman September 11, 2019
collin Minnesota House MN-07: Peterson Moves from Lean Democratic to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman September 6, 2019
dan North Carolina House NC-09: Republicans Risk Special Election Loss in Critical 2020 State David Wasserman David Wasserman September 6, 2019
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: Colorado to Florida This is the third in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 30, 2019
house map House Charts The Cook Political Report's 2020 House District Databook David Wasserman David Wasserman August 30, 2019
sean duffy Wisconsin House Duffy's Resignation Moves WI-07 from Solid to Likely Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman August 26, 2019
CA California House 2020 House Bottom Lines: California David Wasserman David Wasserman August 23, 2019
Dwass House Overview 2020 House Overview: Can Republicans Stave Off a Mass Exodus? David Wasserman David Wasserman August 7, 2019
Marchart Texas House Texodus Continues: TX-24 Remains in Toss Up After Marchant's Retirement David Wasserman David Wasserman August 5, 2019
Will Hurd Texas House Texas Exodus: Hurd's Retirement Moves TX-23 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman August 2, 2019
House Overview 2020 House Bottom Lines: Alabama to Arkansas This is the first in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 26, 2019
TX-22 Texas House Olson Retirement Moves TX-22 from Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman July 25, 2019
trump National Politics How Trump Could Lose by Five Million Votes and Still Win in 2020 David Wasserman David Wasserman July 22, 2019
nc North Carolina House Two Months Out: North Carolina Special Elections Preview David Wasserman David Wasserman July 19, 2019
AOC House Overview Pelosi vs. the 'Squad': Keeping Democrats' Newcomers in Perspective David Wasserman David Wasserman July 11, 2019
amasg Michigan House Amash's Departure From the GOP Moves MI-03 From Solid Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman July 8, 2019
gerrymander House Overview Supreme Court Rejects Challenge to Partisan Gerrymandering David Wasserman David Wasserman June 27, 2019
virginia Virginia House SCOTUS's Virginia Redistricting Ruling: What Does it Mean? David Wasserman David Wasserman June 21, 2019
Montana Montana House MT-AL Remains in Likely Republican Following Gianforte's Announcement David Wasserman David Wasserman June 7, 2019
Elise Stefanik House Overview New Census Data Reinforces Urgency of House GOP's Female Recruitment Push David Wasserman David Wasserman April 26, 2019
IA-04 Iowa House Loebsack's Retirement Moves IA-02 From Likely Democratic to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman April 12, 2019
National Politics Trump May Have an Unlikely Re-election Ally (The article originally appeared in The New York Times on March 13, 2019)  Donald Trump’s low approval ratings have attracted a crush of Democrats vying to make him a one-term president. But he… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 15, 2019
dwass house House Overview 2020 House Overview: Can Democrats Keep Their Majority? David Wasserman David Wasserman March 1, 2019
Marc Harris North Carolina House NC-09 Remains in Toss Up After New Election Ordered David Wasserman David Wasserman February 21, 2019
woodall Georgia House Woodall Retirement Moves GA-07 to Top of Democrats' 2020 Pickup List David Wasserman David Wasserman February 7, 2019
DW National Politics An Early Look at 2021 Reapportionment David Wasserman David Wasserman February 1, 2019
PA-12 Pennsylvania House PA-12 to Remain in Solid Republican Following Marino's Exit David Wasserman David Wasserman January 18, 2019
2020 House Charts Introducing The Cook Political Report's 2020 House Ratings David Wasserman David Wasserman December 12, 2018
Mark Harris North Carolina House Deepening Absentee Ballot Scandal Leaves NC-09 Outcome in Doubt David Wasserman David Wasserman December 4, 2018
DCCC/NRCC House Overview Final House Breakdown and Challenges for the New Chairs David Wasserman David Wasserman November 30, 2018
House Overview House Update: Where Will Democrats' Gains Land? The last week of ballot counting has mostly brought good news for Democrats and made Republicans' bad Election Night even worse. Democrats now appear to be the victors in 232 seats to 199 for… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 16, 2018
David House Five Takeaways From Democrats' House Triumph David Wasserman David Wasserman November 8, 2018
House Overview An Election Night Guide to the House: Nine Types of Districts to Watch Democrats' path to a majority has always run through the suburbs. And thanks to President Trump's terrible approval ratings among college-educated women, a historic number of GOP open seats and… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 5, 2018
Final house House Overview Final House Ratings: 75 Competitive Races, Ten Rating Changes David Wasserman David Wasserman November 5, 2018
Chabot House Overview One Week Out, Six Rating Changes David Wasserman David Wasserman October 30, 2018
House Flip House Overview Ten Rating Changes as Democrats' Enthusiasm Edge Narrows and Fundraising Advantage Widens David Wasserman David Wasserman October 23, 2018
House House Overview Nine Kinds of Races That Will Decide the Fate of the House David Wasserman David Wasserman October 19, 2018
New York House NY-11: Donovan Moves to Lean Republican on Staten Island Most New York observers assumed Democrats' lost their best fall hope when GOP Rep. Dan Donovan (NY-11) soundly defeated convicted felon and former Rep. Michael Grimm in the June primary. After all,… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 17, 2018
Troy Ohio House OH-12: Once Again a Toss Up as Balderson Seeks a Full Term David Wasserman David Wasserman October 17, 2018
Pete Minnesota House MN-08 Rating Change: Odds of GOP Takeover Improve on the Iron Range David Wasserman David Wasserman October 16, 2018
lauren underwood House Overview House Rating Changes: Post-Kavanaugh Polls Reveal an Even More Polarized Landscape David Wasserman David Wasserman October 12, 2018
Carlos Curbelo House Overview House Rating Changes: Eight More GOP Seats Move Towards Democrats David Wasserman David Wasserman October 3, 2018
Mike Coffman House Overview House Rating Changes: Five More Races Move Towards Democrats David Wasserman David Wasserman September 26, 2018
New Mexico House NM-02: Torres Small's Appeal Moves Race to Toss Up This rural southern New Mexico seat is the state's most GOP-friendly: it voted for President Trump 50 percent to 40 percent in 2016. But it's not uncharted territory for Democrats: in 2008, when GOP… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 19, 2018
debate Minnesota House Paulsen's Deficit Moves MN-03 From Toss up to Lean Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman September 19, 2018
Donna Florida House Shalala's Flaws Move FL-27 From Lean Democratic to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman September 19, 2018
House Overview Triage Mode for GOP, Rating Changes in Six Districts Seven weeks out, Republicans face difficult choices: which of their own districts should they abandon to focus resources on other districts that are savable? At this point, a number of GOP incumbents… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 19, 2018
collins New York House NY-27: Collins to Remain on Ballot, Race Moves to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman September 18, 2018
Papas House Overview House Rating Changes: New Hampshire Primaries Boost Democrats David Wasserman David Wasserman September 12, 2018
Texas House O'Rourke's Competitiveness Could Have Down-Ballot Implications The marquee clash between GOP Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke has clearly tightened, and Democrats are (perhaps overly) excited about the potential for a historic breakthrough in the… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 7, 2018
Cort Missouri House MO-02: Wagner Moves From Likely Republican to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman September 7, 2018
women House Overview 2018 Is Set to Be a Record-Shattering Year for Women in the House David Wasserman David Wasserman September 7, 2018
Taylor Virginia House VA-02: Taylor Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman September 6, 2018
Iowa House IA-01: Blum Moves From Toss up to Lean Democratic Iowa GOP Rep. Rod Blum has consistently been underestimated, and in 2016 he won reelection 54 percent to 46 percent while President Trump carried the district 48 percent to 45 percent. But on Tuesday… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 6, 2018
Miles Maps House Charts Complete District by District With Interactive Maps David Wasserman David Wasserman August 24, 2018
Dwass House House Overview August House Overview: The Bottom Line in the 66 Most Competitive Races David Wasserman David Wasserman August 24, 2018
IA04 Iowa House IA-04: King Moves From Solid to Likely Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman August 22, 2018
Alaska House AK-AL: Young Moves From Solid to Likely Republican The new dean of the House has survived dozens of close calls since 1973, but 22-term GOP Rep. Don Young faces a new kind of opponent in 2018. Thanks to a recent state supreme court ruling,… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 22, 2018
Hunter California House CA-50: Hunter Indictment Moves Race from Solid to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman August 21, 2018
South Carolina House SC-01: Sanford's Open Seat Moves to Lean Republican In June, defense contractor and conservative state Rep. Katie Arrington unseated Trump critic and GOP Rep. Mark Sanford in the Republican primary, 51 percent to 47 percent. Ten days later, Arrington… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 17, 2018
Ratings changes House Overview House: Three More GOP Seats Join the Toss Up Column David Wasserman David Wasserman August 15, 2018
Dwass House Overview House: Rating Changes in Five GOP-Held Seats David Wasserman David Wasserman August 8, 2018
NY-27 New York House Collins Indicted, NY-27 Moves to Likely Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman August 8, 2018
Dwass House Overview Mapping Democrats' Path to 218: The Eight Types of Races That Will Decide the House David Wasserman David Wasserman August 3, 2018
Open House Overview The Bottom Line in Republicans' 42 Open Seats David Wasserman David Wasserman July 27, 2018
PA-17 Pennsylvania House PA-17: Rothfus vs. Lamb Clash Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman July 24, 2018
House Overview House: Bottom Lines in Democrats' 22 Open Seats The first step of Democrats' path back to the majority is defending the seats they already hold. Fortunately for them, out of the 20 open seats and two vacancies on the Democratic side, 15 are in… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 20, 2018
House Overview Risk Factors for 2018 Q2 GOP House Incumbents Armed with fresh FEC data from the second quarter of 2018, we have updated our table listing seven "risk factors" to gauge Republican incumbents' political health and readiness for a wave election.… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 18, 2018
FeC House Overview New FEC Data Points to Severe Risk for House GOP David Wasserman David Wasserman July 18, 2018
IA03 Iowa House IA-03: Young Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman July 18, 2018
OH-12 Ohio House OH-12: Special Election Going Down to the Wire David Wasserman David Wasserman July 18, 2018
Bishop Michigan House MI-08: Bishop Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman July 13, 2018
Illinois House IL-13: Davis Moves From Likely Republican to Lean Republican In 2011, Illinois Democrats tried to draw the 13th to elect one of their own by connecting the disparate college towns of Champaign-Urbana, Bloomington-Normal and Edwardsville with union-heavy cities… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 13, 2018
LLBEAN Maine House ME-02: Poliquin Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman July 13, 2018
Florida House House: Ratings Changes in Two Florida Races Although Republicans are still favored to win, Democrats are talking about two Florida districts they haven't talked about in years: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan's 16th CD in Sarasota and GOP Rep. Ron… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 13, 2018
House Overview July House Overview: Democrats Remain Slight Favorites for Majority Four months out, the battle for House control remains highly competitive. But Democrats remain the narrow favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need to win the majority.  Based on the Republicans'… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 10, 2018
House Changes House Overview House Ratings Changes: 10 Districts Move, Mostly in Democrats' Direction David Wasserman David Wasserman July 10, 2018
VA-07 Virginia House VA-07: Brat Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman July 6, 2018
pa-01 Pennsylvania House PA-01: Fitzpatrick Moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman July 6, 2018
Crowley New York House Initial Thoughts in the Aftermath of Crowley's Defeat David Wasserman David Wasserman June 27, 2018
Richard Ojeda West Virginia House WV-03: Why a District Trump Won by 50 Points Is at Risk for GOP David Wasserman David Wasserman June 20, 2018
Texas House TX-31: Carter Moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican Texas GOP Rep. John Carter has never faced a competitive general election since winning his seat in 2002. The attorney former longtime county judge, now 76, has been a fixture in local politics for… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 20, 2018
Amy Kentucky House KY-06: Barr Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman June 18, 2018
Comstock Virginia House VA-10: Comstock Moves From Toss up to Lean Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman June 18, 2018
Sessions Texas House TX-32: Sessions Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman June 15, 2018
NJ and CA House Overview House Ratings Changes: Democrats Breathe a California-Sized Sigh of Relief David Wasserman David Wasserman June 8, 2018
Final CA California House Final California Primary Preview: High Stakes for House Democrats David Wasserman David Wasserman June 4, 2018
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Washington to Wyoming This is the final in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 1, 2018
Tom Garrett congress Virginia House VA-05 Remains in Lean Republican Following Garrett's Retirement David Wasserman David Wasserman May 29, 2018
Democratic Primaries House Overview The Drive to Elect Women Is Defining 2018's Democratic Primaries David Wasserman David Wasserman May 24, 2018
Mike Levin House Overview House Ratings Changes: GOP Fortunes Improve in Four Districts David Wasserman David Wasserman May 22, 2018
Utah House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Utah to Virginia David Wasserman David Wasserman May 10, 2018
North Carolina House NC-08: Hudson Moves from Solid to Likely Republican On Tuesday, oil and propane businessman Frank McNeill won the Democratic nomination to face three-term GOP Rep. Richard Hudson in North Carolina's 8th CD. McNeill, a former mayor of Aberdeen (… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 10, 2018
Pennsylvania House Pennsylvania Primary Update: How Democrats Could Whiff on a Top Target The Keystone State is chock full of targets for Democrats after the state Supreme Court redrew the state's map in February. If every race were to go their way, they could pick up six seats — a… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 4, 2018
VA-10 House Virginia House VA-10 Preview: Democrats Fight to Take on Most Vulnerable GOP House Incumbent David Wasserman David Wasserman May 3, 2018
DW CAlifornia California House House: Democrats Risk Disaster in California's Top Two Primaries David Wasserman David Wasserman May 2, 2018
Ohio-12 Ohio House OH-12: Both Parties' Primaries Going Down to the Wire David Wasserman David Wasserman May 2, 2018
House Overview More GOP Trouble Looms in Toss Up OH-12 Special Election GOP Rep.-Elect Debbie Lesko's victory over Democratic physician Hiral Tipirneni in this week's AZ-08 special election wasn't supposed to be this close. Lesko's five-point margin in a district… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 27, 2018
Risk Factors House Overview Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents David Wasserman David Wasserman April 20, 2018
House Overview New House FEC Reports: Rating Changes in 7 Districts (Bottom Lines) Bottom Lines are our most current take on a race. Here's our latest on the ratings we shifted in 7 districts. Updated Bottom Lines AR-02: French Hill (R) — Central: Little RockLean Republican.… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 18, 2018
New House FEC Reports House Overview New House FEC Reports: Rating Changes in 7 Districts David Wasserman David Wasserman April 18, 2018
Texas House 2018 House Bottom Lines: Texas Texas is poised for a change in 2018: eight of its 36 House races feature no incumbent. And, for the first time in over a decade, GOP Rep. Will Hurd's 23rd CD might not be the only competitive… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 13, 2018
Florida House Ross Retirement Moves FL-15 from Solid to Likely Republican On the same morning Speaker Paul Ryan announced his retirement, Florida GOP Rep. Dennis Ross announced he won't seek a fifth term this fall. Florida's 15th CD, encompassing the outer Tampa suburbs,… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 11, 2018
Paul Ryan Retire Wisconsin House Ryan Retirement Puts WI-01 at Risk and Throws House GOP Into Deeper Turmoil David Wasserman David Wasserman April 11, 2018
House Overview April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts (Bottom Lines) Bottom Lines are our most current take on a race. Here's our latest on the ratings we shifted left in 13 districts. Updated Bottom Lines CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Central Valley: Hanford, parts of… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 6, 2018
April House Overview House Overview April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts David Wasserman David Wasserman April 6, 2018
Etsy Connecticut House Esty Debacle Moves CT-05 From Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman April 2, 2018
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Rhode Island to Tennessee This is the ninth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 30, 2018
Costello Retirement Pennsylvania House Costello Retirement Moves PA-06 from Toss Up to Likely Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman March 26, 2018
Pennsylvania House 2018 House Bottom Lines: Pennsylvania In February, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court imposed a new congressional map after striking down the 2011 GOP-drawn map as an unconstitutional gerrymander. The ruling probably wouldn't have been… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 23, 2018
New York House NY-25: Slaughter's Passing Creates a Rochester Vacancy Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter's death last Friday at age 88 creates a vacancy that will lead to the seventh New York special election in the last decade. Slaughter, the former chair of the House… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 22, 2018
House Overview Ratings Changes in 10 Districts Democrat Conor Lamb's victory in a district that voted for President Trump by nearly 20 points has many House Republicans sitting in less Trump-friendly districts on heightened alert. Of the 120… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 16, 2018
House Overview March House Update: Ratings Changes in 10 Districts Democrat Conor Lamb's victory in a district that voted for President Trump by nearly 20 points has many House Republicans sitting in less Trump-friendly districts on heightened alert. Of the 120… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 16, 2018
Lamb Pennsylvania House PA-18 Result Is Latest Blow to GOP Odds of Holding the House David Wasserman David Wasserman March 14, 2018
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Ohio to Oregon This is the eighth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 9, 2018
Arizona House AZ-08: Republicans Retain Advantage in Special Election Republicans avoided a potential headache on Tuesday when former state Sen. Debbie Lesko won the GOP primary to fill former Rep. Trent Franks's vacant Arizona seat with 35 percent of the vote. Former… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 2, 2018
PA18 Pennsylvania House PA-18 Special Election Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman February 27, 2018
Texas Texas House Texas: House Primaries to Watch David Wasserman David Wasserman February 23, 2018
Pennsylvania House New Pennsylvania Map: Bottom Lines Bottom Lines are race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district. The full report on Pennsylvania redistricting can be found here. Pennsylvania Race… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 20, 2018
PA Redistrict Pennsylvania House New Pennsylvania Map Is a Major Boost for Democrats David Wasserman David Wasserman February 20, 2018
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: New York to North Dakota This is the seventh in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 16, 2018
Battle for the House 2 California House Battle for the House: Are Crowded Democratic Primaries a Blessing or a Curse? David Wasserman David Wasserman February 15, 2018
Nolan Retirement Minnesota House Nolan Retirement Doesn't Change Toss Up Rating in MN-08 David Wasserman David Wasserman February 9, 2018
Ratings Changes in 21 Districts House Overview Ratings Changes in 21 Districts David Wasserman David Wasserman February 8, 2018
House Overview February House Overview The first two months of 2018 have given both parties reasons for optimism. Republicans have cut Democrats' lead in the FiveThirtyEight average of generic congressional ballot polls in half, from… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 8, 2018
House Overview 2018 House Special Election Updates A trio of Republican resignations since October have prompted 2018 special elections. The March 13 race in Pennsylvania's 18th CD to fill Rep. Tim Murphy's seat is the most competitive, but the… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 2, 2018
Rodney Frelinghuysen New Jersey House Frelinghuysen Retires, NJ-11 Stays in Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman January 29, 2018
FiveThirtyEight Hating Gerrymandering Is Easy. Fixing It Is Harder. This feature was originally published at fivethirtyeight.com. It is part their Gerrymandering Project series. Check it out here.  As politics in the U.S. has polarized along geographic and racial… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 26, 2018
PAMap Pennsylvania House Democrats Shouldn't Celebrate Pennsylvania Redistricting Ruling Just Yet David Wasserman David Wasserman January 24, 2018
Meehan Pennsylvania House Meehan Scandal Moves PA-07 to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman January 24, 2018
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Mississippi to New Mexico This is the sixth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 19, 2018
Washington House Rating Change: McMorris Rodgers No Longer Safe in WA-05 Eastern Washington is not normally a place you'd expect a competitive House race, but in this political climate, problems for Republicans are popping up in surprising places. House GOP Conference… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 12, 2018
McSally Senate Bid Moves AZ-02 to Lean Democratic Arizona House McSally Senate Bid Moves AZ-02 to Lean Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman January 12, 2018
Issa Retirement Moves CA-49 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic California House Issa Retirement Moves CA-49 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman January 10, 2018
Royce California House Royce Retirement Moves CA-39 from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic David Wasserman David Wasserman January 8, 2018
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Maine to Minnesota This is the fifth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 22, 2017
House Overview House: 2017 Special Elections Portend a 2018 Wave Of the six federal special elections contested by both parties this year, Alabama's Senate race was the first Democrats won. But taken together, they point to an alarming trend for the GOP: the Trump… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 15, 2017
KY-06: Gray's Entry Moves Barr to Lean Republican Kentucky House KY-06: Gray's Entry Moves Barr to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman December 8, 2017
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Indiana to Louisiana This is the fourth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 8, 2017
Kihuen, Levin Developments Shake Up Democratic Seats House Overview Kihuen, Levin Developments Shake Up Democratic Seats David Wasserman David Wasserman December 4, 2017
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Georgia to Illinois This is the third in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 1, 2017
House Race Ratings House Overview House: Ratings Changes in Seven Districts as GOP Majority in Peril David Wasserman David Wasserman November 17, 2017
DW538 FiveThirtyEight The One County In America That Voted In A Landslide For Both Trump And Obama David Wasserman David Wasserman November 10, 2017
New Jersey House New Jersey House LoBiondo Retirement Moves NJ-02 from Solid Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman November 7, 2017
Virginia Governor A Viewer's Guide to Tracking the Virginia Governor's Race Tonight's most closely watched race, the Virginia gubernatorial contest between Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie, is going down to the wire. To help you figure out who's on track to… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 7, 2017
TX House Texas House Hensarling, Smith Retirements Don't Alter House Math David Wasserman David Wasserman November 3, 2017
House Overview Updated Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents Democrats' steady lead in generic congressional ballot polls points to big midterm danger for House Republicans. But at this point in an election cycle, race-by-race polling is scarce and it's tricky… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 27, 2017
HouseRatings House Overview House: Ratings Changes in 12 Districts as Democrats Gain Momentum David Wasserman David Wasserman October 13, 2017
House Overview Democrats Could Use a Few More GOP House Retirements A little over a year out, Democrats' prospects of winning back the House look considerably brighter in nationwide polls than they do in a race-by-race analysis. Since June, the FiveThirtyEight… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 6, 2017
PA18Alert Pennsylvania House Murphy Resignation Creates PA-18 Special Election Headache for GOP David Wasserman David Wasserman October 5, 2017
Virginia House Why Virginia's Delegate Races Could Be the Most Telling 2017 Elections The Alabama Senate special election and the Virginia gubernatorial race are near-certain to dominate political pundits' attention this fall. But they could be poor predictors of 2018. The former is… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 29, 2017
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Colorado to Florida This is the second in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 22, 2017
Dave Trout Michigan House Trott Retirement Moves MI-11 from Likely Republican to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman September 11, 2017
PA15 Pennsylvania House Dent Retirement Gives Democrats an Opportunity in PA-15 David Wasserman David Wasserman September 8, 2017
FiveThirtyEight 2018 Could Be The Year Of The Angry White College Graduate Even with the political winds at their back, Democrats enter the 2018 congressional midterms at a historic geographic disadvantage. They also face demographic hurdles: Midterm electorates tend to be… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 8, 2017
WA08 Washington House Reichert Retirement Moves WA-08 to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman September 6, 2017
House Overview 2018 House Bottom Lines: Alabama to California This is the first in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 1, 2017
ME-02: Poliquin Moves to Lean Republican Maine House ME-02: Poliquin Moves to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman August 25, 2017
DW Map Texas House Texas Redistricting Ruling Mostly Good News for GOP David Wasserman David Wasserman August 18, 2017
FiveThirtyEight The Congressional Map Has A Record-Setting Bias Against Democrats When Democrats think about their party’s problems on the political map, they tend to think of President Trump’s ability to win the White House despite losing the popular vote and Republicans’ potent… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 9, 2017
House Overview House: Can Democrats Dodge the Carpetbagger Label in 2018? Democrats' chances of retaking the House in 2018 depend on the success or failure of candidates like Elissa Slotkin. At 41, she has compiled the kind of impressive national security resume her party… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 4, 2017
House Overview Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents Multiple indicators, including generic congressional ballot polls, President Trump's tepid approval recent special election results, point to broad midterm danger for Republicans. But as we noted… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 28, 2017
UT-03 Special Election: GOP Primary Heats Up Utah House UT-03 Special Election: GOP Primary Heats Up David Wasserman David Wasserman July 21, 2017
House Overview House: Rating Changes Favor Democrats in 10 Districts This is a tricky point in the election cycle to begin making predictions. On one hand, the danger signs are everywhere for the GOP: President Trump's approval is mired in the high 30s, and support… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 7, 2017
AP Images New York House NY-22: Tenney Gets a Challenger, Race Moves to Lean Republican David Wasserman David Wasserman June 30, 2017
House Overview GA-06: Why Handel's Win Isn't a Disaster for Democrats It's a devastating psychological blow for a party to spend over $30 million on a House special election and still lose. For Democrats, Jon Ossoff's defeat to Karen Handel stings, and the blame game… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 21, 2017
Georgia House Putting GA-06 in Perspective The huge story out of last week's UK parliamentary elections was that Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to call them backfired spectacularly. Less noticed here, but perhaps with much larger… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 16, 2017
AP Georgia House GA-06 Special Still Too Close to Call David Wasserman David Wasserman June 9, 2017
DWPVI1 House Overview Montana's Outcome is Still Bad News for House Republicans David Wasserman David Wasserman June 2, 2017
DW Chart051517 House Overview A Smarter Way to Interpret 2017's Special Elections David Wasserman David Wasserman May 24, 2017
NJ-11 New Jersey House Even Senior House Republicans Are at Risk in 2018 David Wasserman David Wasserman May 19, 2017
House Overview House Specials Update: MT-AL Moves to Lean Republican Georgia's special election is now officially the most expensive House race of all time: the candidates and parties will likely spend in excess of $40 million to win that deadlocked race. But it's… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 12, 2017
House Map House Overview House 2018: Rating Changes in 20 Districts David Wasserman David Wasserman May 5, 2017
Florida House Ros-Lehtinen Retirement Moves FL-27 to Lean Democratic Florida GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's retirement, first reported by the Miami Herald, vaults her Miami district to the very top of Democrats' takeover list. Over 27 years in the House, Ros-Lehtinen'… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 1, 2017
VA-10 TU Virginia House Rating Change in VA-10: Wexton Bid Moves Comstock to Toss Up David Wasserman David Wasserman April 21, 2017
Georgia House GA-06: Still a Toss Up as Ossoff and Handel Advance to Runoff If you had told Democrats three months ago that first-time candidate Jon Ossoff would have taken 48 percent of the vote to advance to the GA-06 runoff against GOP former Secretary of State Karen… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 19, 2017
GA-06 Georgia House GA-06: Four Days Until the Primary David Wasserman David Wasserman April 14, 2017
House Overview KS-04 Moves to Lean Republican, GA-06 to Toss Up In the final hours of the special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo in Wichita, Kansas, Republicans are expressing alarm that Democrat James Thompson is within striking distance of… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 10, 2017
Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index The Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 20th anniversary edition of the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for all 50 states and 435 Congressional districts in the country, compiled especially… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 7, 2017
House Overview KS-04 Special Election Moves to Likely Republican In a sign of the times, there's mounting GOP concern in an unlikely place: Wichita, Kansas. With four days to go until the April 11 special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo, the NRCC… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 6, 2017
Minnesota House Walz's Bid for Governor Moves MN-01 to Toss Up There's a tendency in Washington to believe Democrats have hit rock bottom in rural America, but the party still holds 12 House seats in districts President Trump carried. Three are in Minnesota.… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 31, 2017
House Overview GA-06 Special Election Moves to Lean Republican It's hard to remember the last time a House race became as much of a national fixation as the race in GA-06 to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price. With less than three weeks left until the initial April… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 31, 2017
FiveThirtyEight Republicans Could Pay A Price For Ditching Trump — Even If He’s Unpopular President Trump’s private warning that 2018 could be a “bloodbath” if Republicans don’t make good on his promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act may sound like hyperbole, but Republicans thinking… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 23, 2017
House Overview House: 2018 Bottom Lines in 57 Districts to Watch - Part II President Trump's election was probably the best thing to happen to Democrats' chances of retaking the House majority in 2018, and his rocky start has the out party energized. But to pick up 24 seats… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 3, 2017
House Overview House: A Few Bright Spots for Democrats, but Mostly Disappointment Most Democrats were anticipating Hillary Clinton would have short coattails, but few anticipated that Donald Trump's coattails would end up helping many down-ballot Republicans win and even give… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 10, 2016
House Overview House Democrats Are Getting More Diverse. Republicans Aren’t. This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on November 6, 2016 In August, Seattle Democrat Pramila Jayapal was the top vote getter in the all-party primary for a U.S. House seat left… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 7, 2016
House Overview An Hour-by-Hour Election Night Guide to the House As the 2016 election unmercifully approaches its end, Republican control of the House isn't in much doubt, but the final margin remains a mystery. The GOP holds a 247 to 188 seat majority, and he… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 7, 2016
House Overview House: GOP Could Limit Losses as Clinton's Coattails Get Shorter As the 2016 election approaches its unmerciful end, Republican control of the House isn't in much doubt, but the final margin is unknown. The Cook Political Report's outlook is a Democratic gain of… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 7, 2016
National Politics Clinton’s Coalition: Hispanic Support Appears To Be Up, Black Turnout Down This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on October 28, 2016 The FBI may have injected last-minute uncertainty into the presidential race, but with eight days to go, the contours of… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 2, 2016
House Overview House: GOP Majority Looks Assured, but Margin in Doubt The presidential race may be inducing whiplash, but the House battleground remains relatively stable in the final week. We rate only 40 House races in Lean or Toss Up, and Democrats would need to… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 2, 2016
National Politics You’ll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on October 25, 2016 It’s the morning after the election, and while half the country is waking up breathing a sigh of relief, another large… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 28, 2016
House Overview House Alert: Democrats Poised to Pick Up 10 to 20 Seats Less than two weeks from Election Day, Democrats are on track to pick up between 10 and 20 House seats, a slight uptick in their fortunes, but still well short of the 30 seats they need for the… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 27, 2016
House Overview House Rating Changes: Trump's Toxicity Moves Comstock to Toss Up Three weeks out, the House landscape has bifurcated: in well-educated suburban districts, Donald Trump's atrocious numbers - especially with women - means GOP candidates are fighting his toxicity as… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 19, 2016
House Overview House Rating Changes: Issa Moves to Toss Up Based on the latest public and private polling, we are revising our ratings in eight districts. Five of the changes favor Democrats. Of note, GOP Rep. Darrell Issa (CA-49), former chair of the House… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 14, 2016
House Overview Is the House in Play? What We Know Now Ever since last Friday's Access Hollywood bombshell, Speaker Paul Ryan has treated Trump's campaign as a sinking ship and has sounded an alarm to donors to shift resources towards saving the majority… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 14, 2016
New Jersey House Rating Change: Garrett in Danger, NJ-05 Moves to Toss Up Most Republicans have been polling surprisingly well in suburban House races in recent weeks. Then there's GOP Rep. Scott Garrett, the chair of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 4, 2016
National Politics ‘Missing’ White Voters Could Elect Trump. But First They Need to Register. This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on September 29, 2016 Here’s a scary stat for Democrats: In 2012, President Obama won re-election by almost 5 million votes, but about 47… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 30, 2016
House Overview House: Rating Changes in Eight Districts Favor Republicans The narrowing gap in the presidential race has given Republican House strategists renewed optimism that Donald Trump may not be as big a drag on their candidates as they once feared. With a few… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 29, 2016
Florida House Rating Change: FL-07 May Be 2016's Ultimate Bellwether House Race If Democrats want to make a serious dent in Republicans' House majority, they'll need to break through in diversifying, suburban districts where Donald Trump is about as popular as snarled traffic.… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 29, 2016
California House Rating Change: CA-24 Moves to Lean Democratic Republicans haven't gained a House seat in California since 1998, and Santa Barbara and the Central Coast aren't exactly Donald Trump bastions. But a new poll conducted by the Tarrance Group for GOP… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 23, 2016
National Politics How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on September 15, 2016 OK, before I say anything, a quick disclaimer: This piece is not a prediction. In fact, I’m a religious (maybe… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 16, 2016
New Hampshire House NH-01 Moves to Lean Democratic After Guinta Survives Primary Republicans' chances of holding New Hampshire's 1st CD would have probably improved slightly had GOP Rep. Frank Guinta lost his primary last night. Last spring, GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte and the… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 14, 2016
House Overview Is There a Magic Number for Democrats to Take Back the House? This article was originally published at nbc.com on September 8, 2016. As the presidential campaign enters its final stretch, many people have begun to ask me: "What size margin would Hillary… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 12, 2016
House Overview September House Overview: The 37 Most Competitive Districts Less than two months from Election Day, it's still not clear Donald Trump's nomination is dragging down more House Republicans than were already vulnerable. Democrats are about to launch on a… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 12, 2016
House Overview House: Ratings Changes in Eight Districts Overall, the House landscape has been remarkably stable compared to the past five election cycles, when plenty of races came "on to the board" in the final months. But based on recent developments,… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 9, 2016
House Overview Fallout from Arizona and Florida's House Primaries Each party got some good news and bad news in Tuesday's primaries. In Arizona's 1st District, Democrats got the opponent they wanted when baggage-laden Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu won the GOP… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 2, 2016
National Politics Republicans’ Voter Registration Gains Probably Aren’t Gains At All This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on August 24, 2016 Republicans and the Trump campaign — facing severe polling, staff and advertising disadvantages — might be tempted to… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 26, 2016
House Overview House: New Bottom Lines in 48 Open Seats If Democrats want to make a play for the House majority, they would need to capitalize on all the Republican retirements they possibly can. The problem is, of the 46 open seats and two vacant seats,… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 26, 2016
House Overview House: 2016 May Come Down to "Disaffected Democrats" and "Reluctant Republicans" To survive a potentially large loss at the top of the ticket, many House Republicans will need to win over not just ardent supporters of Donald Trump - many of whom might have considered themselves… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 19, 2016
House Overview No Evidence Trump is Dragging Down House Republicans (Yet) On Wednesday, the DCCC released a memo arguing that "Donald Trump's likely defeat in many swing districts will be a devastating anchor that drags down House Republicans all across the country." To… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 12, 2016
Wyoming House WY-AL: Liz Cheney on Track to Win Key Tuesday Primary Former State Department official Liz Cheney started out the race for this open seat with plenty of skeptics after her disastrous and short-lived primary challenge to GOP Sen. Mike Enzi in 2013. But… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 12, 2016
Minnesota House Primary Results Move MN-02 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic House Republicans are happy that Speaker Paul Ryan won his Wisconsin primary with 84 percent of the vote, but Democrats are thrilled by last night's primary results next door in Minnesota. As… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 10, 2016
National Politics The Political Process Isn’t Rigged — It Has Much Bigger Problems This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on August 4, 2016 All right, I need to vent. For months, I’ve watched Donald Trump decry as “rigged” everything from the Democratic primaries… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 5, 2016
Wisconsin House WI-01 Primary: Why Paul Ryan is Not Eric Cantor You know it's a strange year when the GOP nominee for president refuses to endorse his party's speaker of the House in his own primary. Just as it looked like it would escape notice, Speaker Paul… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 5, 2016
House Overview 2016 in a Nutshell: A Tale of Two Second Congressional Districts Omaha, Nebraska is 1,665 miles from Bangor, Maine. Culturally, they're worlds apart: white-collar Omaha is becoming more cosmopolitan while northern Maine is well-known for its blue-collar… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 25, 2016
House Overview House Risk Factors: Democrats Make Progress, But No Signs Yet of an Anti-GOP Wave The chaos inside Quicken Loans Arena - from a quashed delegate rebellion to Melania Trump's recycled words and Ted Cruz's saboteur turn - have dominated coverage of Cleveland this week. But outside… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 22, 2016
National Politics Trump’s Uphill Fight: The States Where The White Population Has Declined The Most This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on July 7, 2016 It could be said that the 2016 presidential election is once again a question of economics versus demographics. On one hand,… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 8, 2016
House Overview Republicans' Support for Trump Depends on Their Vulnerability A year ago, it was unthinkable that Republican members of Congress would ever support Donald Trump. Even in mid-February, eight months after he had launched his candidacy, not a single sitting member… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 8, 2016
National Politics Democratic Primary Map Illustrates Clinton's Successes and Challenges Picture a "typical" Bernie Sanders supporter. Before the primaries began in earnest, most people probably pictured a Birkenstock-wearing, Occupy protesting, anti-climate change activist who lives in… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 1, 2016
National Politics Team Clinton's Puzzling Pennsylvania Bypass This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on June 22, 2016. Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls over Donald Trump, and has vastly more cash on hand. But when it comes… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 24, 2016
House Overview The GOP’s House Majority Is Safe...Right? This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on June 21, 2016. Right now, most bettors foresee nine words that are the stuff of Republicans’ 2017 nightmares: “President Hillary Clinton… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 21, 2016
House Overview GOP Incumbents in NY-01 and UT-04 Move to Toss Up Amid Hillary Clinton's rising numbers, House Democrats have also benefited from a small string of favorable developments. This week's primaries in NV-03 and NV-04 couldn't have turned out much better… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 17, 2016
Florida House FL-13: Jolly Reelection Run Makes Race More Competitive This morning, Florida GOP Rep. David Jolly announced he is dropping his Senate bid to run for reelection to the House in FL-13, giving Republicans a credible path against former Gov. Charlie Crist,… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 17, 2016
House Overview Primary Fallout: Knight Moves to Toss Up in CA-25, Blum to Lean Democratic in IA-01 Tuesday's congressional primaries didn't produce a lot of surprises but clarified matters in several of November's top races. If Democrats want to make House gains in the double digit range, they'll… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 10, 2016
Florida House FL-23: A Reality Check on Wasserman Schultz's Primary There's no doubt Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-23) has had a rocky tenure as DNC chair and that she's incurred the wrath of Bernie Sanders supporters who believe she's "rigged" the primaries in… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 3, 2016
National Politics "Missing" White Voters Might Help Trump, But Less So Where He Needs It This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on June 2, 2016. A common refrain is that demographics will ultimately doom Donald Trump’s candidacy. His most reliable supporters have been… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 2, 2016
California House What to Watch for in California's Top-Two Primary On June 7, most eyes will be on California's Democratic presidential primary, where Hillary Clinton is set to clinch the delegates necessary for the nomination, regardless of the final margin against… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 27, 2016
National Politics Why Pennsylvania Could Decide the 2016 Election This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on May 17, 2016. When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, two of only three states (along with Nevada… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 17, 2016
House Overview House Democrats Struggling to Capitalize on Trump Opportunity In December, after Donald Trump called for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country, NRCC Chair Rep. Greg Walden declared "This is not what we're about as a party, this is not what we're about… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 13, 2016
House Overview Paul Ryan is in the Most Difficult Predicament of 2016 Speaker Paul Ryan's bombshell in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper that he is "just not ready" to support Donald Trump as his party's standard-bearer indicates he's more interested in protecting… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 5, 2016
National Politics Republican Delegate Scorecard for April 29, 2016 Donald Trump's breathtaking romp through the Northeast corridor on Tuesday points to a fundamental shift in the GOP race. Once thought of as a candidate with a low ceiling, Trump won all but eight of… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 29, 2016
National Politics Democratic Delegate Scorecard for April 29, 2016 The Democratic nomination race hasn't been competitive for over a month: Hillary Clinton has an insurmountable delegate lead. But what's remarkable is that the psychology of Democratic voters and… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 29, 2016
National Politics The Four Corners of the GOP (Trump Owns Three of Them) This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on April 26, 2016. The Republican primary calendar could hardly have worked out better for Donald Trump. There is plenty of evidence that he’… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 26, 2016
House Overview 2016 Risk Factors for House GOP Incumbents The likelihood of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the GOP's presidential nominee has given Democrats newfound optimism about their prospects for down-ballot success in 2016. A Hillary Clinton landslide… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 22, 2016
Minnesota House Top Democratic Recruit Moves MN-03 to Lean Republican On Saturday, Democrats claimed a late recruiting coup when state Sen. Terri Bonoff announced she will challenge four-term GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in suburban Minneapolis's 3rd CD. Paulsen's moderate… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 19, 2016
House Overview House: New Bottom Lines in 45 Open Seats It's not quite a mass exodus, but nearly four dozen members of the House are headed for the exits this year. Despite the GOP's historic majority, nearly two thirds are Republicans - including over a… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 16, 2016
House Overview Top Democratic Recruits Prompt Ratings Changes in CO-03 and WI-08 House Democrats have suffered their share of recruitment setbacks this cycle, but they're ending this week on two high notes. In Green Bay, Wisconsin's 8th CD, they landed their top choice, Outagamie… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 8, 2016
National Politics Republican Delegate Scorecard for April 8, 2016 Ted Cruz's win in Wisconsin on Tuesday lowered the odds that Donald Trump will capture the 1,237 he needs to win the GOP nomination without a contested convention. But Trump's fate won't be decided… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 8, 2016
National Politics The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump If Ted Cruz wins by a huge margin in Milwaukee’s suburbs, as expected tonight, he’ll get all three delegates from Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District, which cast 257,017 votes for Mitt Romney in… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 5, 2016
House Overview April House Overview: New Bottom Lines in 35 Competitive Districts The prospect of a GOP implosion at the top of the ticket suddenly has House Democrats energized about making a big dent in the GOP's 30-seat majority or even putting the majority in play. The only… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 1, 2016
National Politics What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like The Republican Party may be on the verge of an irrational break. Donald Trump continues to rack up delegates at a dizzying pace, but he looks less electable against Hillary Clinton by the day.… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 29, 2016
National Politics GOP Delegate Scorecard for March 25, 2016 Donald Trump's dominance in Arizona on Tuesday moved him 58 delegates closer to capturing the 1,237 he needs to win the GOP nomination without a contested convention. But Ted Cruz's sweep of Utah's… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 25, 2016
National Politics Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 25, 2016 After winning Arizona convincingly on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton maintains a virtually insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination. Despite her losses in Idaho and Utah,… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 25, 2016
House Overview House Republicans Staring Into the Abyss: 10 Ratings Changes Favor Democrats "They're about to detonate a nuclear bomb on themselves," said one savvy House Democratic strategist following Tuesday's primaries. "If Ted Cruz is your back up plan, you're screwed," the strategist… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 18, 2016
National Politics Tuesday Results Make Clinton's Delegate Lead All But Insurmountable: Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 18, 2016 After sweeping all five contests in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton has built an even more insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders for the Democratic… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 18, 2016
National Politics Republican Delegate Scorecard for March 11, 2016 Following his seven Super Tuesday victories and his wins in Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii, Donald Trump is still barely "on track" to win 1,237 delegates by June. He leads Ted… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 11, 2016
National Politics Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 11, 2016 Even after Bernie Sanders won a surprising upset in Michigan, Hillary Clinton remains on track to win the Democratic nomination. Thanks to her overwhelming win in Mississippi, Clinton won 20 more… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 11, 2016
House Overview House: Trump Phenomenon Not Hurting GOP Incumbents (Yet) Many Republicans on Capitol Hill may be trembling at the prospect of sharing a November ballot with Donald Trump, but some may also be breathing a sigh of relief after Super Tuesday. The phenomenon… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 4, 2016
National Politics Republican Delegate Scorecard for March 3, 2016 A candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland GOP convention to clinch the Republican nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 3, 2016
National Politics Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the Democratic nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 3, 2016
National Politics Democratic Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 29, 2016 Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 29, 2016
National Politics Republican Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 24, 2016 Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Republican side, one candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 24, 2016
National Politics Democratic Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 23, 2016 Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 23, 2016
National Politics Republican Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 23, 2016 Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Republican side, one candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 23, 2016
North Carolina House Big Changes Ahead for North Carolina's Congressional Map Earlier this month, the judicial branch threw out its third congressional map of the 2016 cycle when a three-judge federal panel ruled North Carolina's map an unconstitutional gerrymander. The timing… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 19, 2016
House Overview The "Other" Primaries: House Incumbents Vulnerable to Intra-Party Challenges Amid the chaos of the presidential race, it's easy to forget there are other notable primaries brewing in 2016. Down-ballot, pervasive voter discontent continues to embolden credible primary… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 19, 2016
National Politics Republican Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 12, 2016 Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Republican side, one candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 12, 2016
National Politics Democratic Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 12, 2016 Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 12, 2016
House Overview House FEC Report: Trump and Cruz Not Yet a Windfall for Democrats It's no secret that House Democrats, and most Democratic strategists in general, would love nothing more than for Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to win the GOP presidential nomination. If either were to… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 5, 2016
Wisconsin House Ribble Retirement Moves WI-08 to Lean Republican On Saturday, Wisconsin Rep. Reid Ribble announced he will retire in 2016, becoming the tenth member of the GOP's class of 2010 to retire or seek other office this cycle. His retirement also creates… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 1, 2016
National Politics Bernie-Mania's Barrier: Democratic Delegate Math In the wake of new Iowa and New Hampshire polls showing Bernie Sanders gaining, some say it's time for Hillary Clinton to hit the panic button. "Clinton should ABSOLUTELY be nervous about the state… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 21, 2016
Virginia House Rigell to Retire, But VA-02 May Be Beyond Democrats' Reach This afternoon, GOP Rep. Scott Rigell announced he will retire from his Virginia Beach-based seat after three terms in the House. The wealthy auto dealer has been one of the more bipartisan members… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 14, 2016
National Politics Introducing: The Cook 2016 GOP Delegate Scorecard The race for the Republican nomination has featured more plot twists and made-for-TV melodrama than the Bachelor. In fact, the polling favorite is a reality TV star whose platform mainly consists of… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 13, 2016
Virginia House New Virginia Map Moves VA-04 to Lean Democratic Yesterday, a federal court judge ordered a new Virginia congressional map for use in this year's election, converting GOP Rep. Randy Forbes' 4th District into a safe Democratic seat. The new map (… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 8, 2016
New York House Israel Retirement Moves NY-03 to Toss Up In both the 2012 and 2014 cycles, Rep. Steve Israel dutifully and shrewdly headed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Today, he announced he will retire in 2016 in part to focus on… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 5, 2016
New York House Hanna Retirement Moves NY-22 to Toss Up Over the weekend, New York GOP Rep. Richard Hanna announced he would not seek a fourth term in his swing seat covering Binghamton and Utica. Hanna, a wealthy construction businessman, is the most… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 21, 2015
House Overview Bottom Lines: Republican Open Seats Believe it or not, there are more open seats than just the White House in 2016. As of today, there are 30 House members either retiring or running for higher office, as well as one vacancy. Of those… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 18, 2015
Illinois House IL-01: Rush May Get Kicked Off Ballot Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush has easily won reelection in a heavily African-American Chicago seat for 24 years, but his fight for a 13th term may be decided in a courtroom rather than at the polls. It'… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 11, 2015
House Overview House: Could Trump Lead to Apocalypse for Republicans? To most Republican strategists, there's no bigger nightmare than Donald Trump as the GOP's presidential nominee in 2016. This week, just about every Democrat running for president, Senate, House, and… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 11, 2015
National Politics Introducing the 2016 Demographic Swing-O-Matic Republicans contend that the 2016 election will be about Americans’ desire for change after eight years of a Democratic president. Democrats hope the election will tell a different story of change: a… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 8, 2015
Florida House New Florida Map Prompts Ratings Changes On Wednesday, the Florida Supreme Court signed off on a new congressional map, and the state's mid-decade game of musical chairs could leave at least three incumbents without a seat. The new map… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 4, 2015
House Overview Bottom Lines: Democratic Open Seats Retirement season is upon the House, and so far the numbers are pretty even: there are 13 Democratic open seats and 15 GOP open seats, although there could be 10-20 more before the cycle is over. The… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 20, 2015
Kansas House Kansas: 2016 House Baselines Kansas was supposed to be the exception to the 2014 GOP wave thanks to GOP Gov. Sam Brownback's unpopularity, but Democrats high hopes for gains were dashed across the board. Instead, Brownback won… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 13, 2015
Kentucky House Kentucky: 2016 House Baselines Like a craft bourbon, Kentucky's Democrats seem to have distilled to just a few urban centers, Louisville and Lexington, while their support everywhere else in the state seems to have evaporated.… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 13, 2015
House Overview Democratic Candidates Worth Watching in 2016 Last week, while GOP Rep. Paul Ryan effectively wrapped up the votes to be speaker, Democrats were busy convening and training over 40 candidates with an eye towards winning back GOP-held seats.… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 30, 2015
House Overview Updated House GOP Factions Chart Yesterday, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan all but wrapped up the necessary support to succeed outgoing Speaker John Boehner. But in the wake of the GOP's leadership drama, it's worth taking a fresh look at… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 23, 2015
Iowa House Iowa: 2016 House Baselines Even in the 2010 GOP wave, Democrats managed to hold onto three of Iowa's five House seats. But in 2014, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley's Senate campaign tanked and the GOP's sweep even cost Democrats… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 16, 2015
House Overview House Reality Check: Can Democrats Capitalize on GOP's Crisis? Up until two weeks ago, the drama and larger-than-life personalities of the 2016 presidential race rendered the House an afterthought. It took a looming government funding/debt ceiling showdown and… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 9, 2015
Indiana House Indiana: 2016 House Baselines The dominoes are falling in Indiana in 2016: thanks to the decisions of GOP Reps. Marlin Stutzman (IN-03) and Todd Young (IN-09) to run for an open Senate seat, there are spirited Republican… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 18, 2015
Michigan House MI-01 Still Leans Republican after Benishek Retirement Today, Michigan GOP Rep. Dan Benishek announced he will retire after three terms. Although Democrats will cheer the news, it's not clear that Benishek's retirement improves their prospect of picking… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 15, 2015
Illinois House Illinois: 2016 House Baselines When Illinois Democrats drew their dream map in 2012, they tried to carve themselves 13 of the state's 18 seats. But after the 2014 GOP wave, they only hold ten. Republican Reps. Robert Dold (IL-10)… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 11, 2015
Minnesota House Kline Retirement Moves MN-02 to Toss Up Today, GOP Rep. John Kline (MN-02) announced that he would retire after seven terms in 2016. Kline's military background and chairmanship of the House Education and the Workforce Committee helped him… David Wasserman David Wasserman September 3, 2015
House Overview New Bottom Lines for Competitive House Races AZ-01: OPEN (Kirkpatrick) (D) - Northeast: Flagstaff, Navajo Nation, Casa GrandeToss Up. Kirkpatrick's decision to run for Senate makes this northern Arizona seat one of Republicans' best pickup… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 28, 2015
House Overview 15 Months Out, Little Change House Republicans are hurtling towards the fall with lots of concerns: how to reconcile a deadline to fund the government with conservatives' demands to defund Planned Parenthood, navigating highway… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 28, 2015
Virginia House Democrats a Step Closer to Gaining Virginia House Seat House Democrats privately admit they don't have much hope of gaining the House back in 2016, but they are eager to engage strategists and donors in the long game: challenge GOP-drawn maps in court,… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 21, 2015
Georgia House Georgia: 2016 House Baselines Republicans strengthened their grip in Georgia in 2014 when they finally defeated the last white House Democrat in the Deep South, Rep. John Barrow. Between a competitive Senate race and three open… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 14, 2015
Hawaii House Hawaii: 2016 House Baselines For years, Sen. Daniel Inouye's political organization dominated Hawaii politics, anointing loyalists up and down the ballot. But Inouye's passing in 2012 prompted a multi-year game of musical chairs… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 14, 2015
Idaho House Idaho: 2016 House Baselines Idaho's two members are both Republicans, but that's about all they have in common. Still, both seem to have entrenched themselves after a wild last few years. Rep. Raul Labrador (ID-01) riles the… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 14, 2015
Florida House Florida Draft Remap Would Net Democrats a Seat This week, Republicans in the Florida Senate unveiled a draft of a new congressional map designed to comply with the Florida Supreme Court's ruling last month striking down the state's lines. As… David Wasserman David Wasserman August 7, 2015
New Jersey House NJ-05: Garrett Puts Himself at Risk For over a decade, Democrats have fumed that GOP Rep. Scott Garrett (NJ-05) is way too conservative for the upscale, socially moderate Bergen County voters who dominate his district. But, voters have… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 31, 2015
House Overview House GOP Factions: The Difference Two Years Makes Nearly two years ago, House Speaker John Boehner faced an insurrection from the right flank of his party that forced a government shutdown and nearly cost him his job. This year, the governing… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 24, 2015
National Politics Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don't Guarantee a Democratic White House History shows it's extremely difficult for a presidential candidate to succeed a two-term president of the same party, especially one with approval ratings as middling as President Obama's. The "time… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 19, 2015
Florida House Florida Map Thrown Out: Graham, Jolly in Danger For the last four years, Democrats in DC and Florida have been hoping and praying for the day when courts would strike down a Republican gerrymander. And yet now that the Florida Supreme Court has… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 15, 2015
National Politics 2016 Voters, by the Numbers Part of what makes the 2016 presidential race so much fun is that two very astute observers looking at it through two different lenses can come up with two totally different predictions about which… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 14, 2015
National Politics African American Voters: The Overlooked Key To 2016 Many analysts have devoted endless hours to pondering the Republican Party's woes with Latino voters and prescriptions for how the party can fix them in time for 2016. There's little doubt that the… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 10, 2015
House Overview Ratings Changes in CO-06 and NV-03 Nevada GOP Rep. Joe Heck's decision to run for Senate is welcome news for Senate Republicans, but it's also good news for House Democrats. The newly open 3rd District, based in Henderson and… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 7, 2015
House Overview Mapping Out the House Democratic Caucus With just 188 seats, House Democrats may be deep in the minority. However, that doesn't make them insignificant. In the last Congress, Republican leaders struggled to quell internal revolts and… David Wasserman David Wasserman July 7, 2015
Arizona House Supreme Court Upholds Arizona Map: What it Means In a 5-4 ruling handed down this morning, the Supreme Court rejected a challenge to Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission and quashed the specter of partisan, mid-decade redistricting in… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 29, 2015
Florida House Florida: 2016 House Baselines The Sunshine State is poised to play a more pivotal role in national politics next year than at any time since the days of "hanging chads" in 2000. Not only has Florida spawned two front-running… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 26, 2015
Virginia House Virginia's Map Thrown Out: What's Next? Last Friday, a three-judge federal panel reaffirmed an October ruling striking down Virginia's congressional map on the grounds that the African-American 3rd District amounts to an unconstitutional… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 12, 2015
Connecticut House Connecticut: 2016 House Baselines Democrats' dominance in Connecticut's House delegation was unchanged by the GOP wave of 2014. If there is still a "swing" seat in the state, it's the northwestern 5th CD held by sophomore Democratic… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 5, 2015
Colorado House Colorado: 2016 House Baselines Republicans have struggled to break through at the presidential and gubernatorial levels in Colorado, but finally won a Senate seat last year and have held a steady 4-3 lead in the House delegation… David Wasserman David Wasserman June 4, 2015
Arizona House Kirkpatrick Senate Bid Moves AZ-01 to Toss Up Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's surprise decision to run for Senate gives Democrats a credible challenger to GOP Sen. John McCain in 2016, but it also catapults her northern Arizona seat to the top… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 26, 2015
California House Southern California: 2016 House Baselines The 2014 GOP wave stopped short of the West Coast. But if that's not disappointing enough for Golden State Republicans, they could be in an even bigger hole if the Supreme Court invalidates the work… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 22, 2015
Mississippi House MS-01: Kelly Virtually Assured of Runoff Victory Tuesday's 13-candidate, nonpartisan special election to replace the late GOP Rep. Alan Nunnelee couldn't have gone better for Republican Trent Kelly, a regional prosecutor and Iraq veteran. Kelly… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 15, 2015
California House Northern California: 2016 House Baselines The 2014 GOP wave stopped short of the West Coast. But if that's not disappointing enough for Golden State Republicans, they could be in an even bigger hole if the Supreme Court invalidates the work… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 15, 2015
Mississippi House Uncertainty Reigns as MS-01 Special Approaches With less than two weeks to go until the May 12 special election , the free-for-all to fill the seat of late GOP Rep. Alan Nunnelee is heating up. Just about the only certainties here are that the… David Wasserman David Wasserman May 1, 2015
House Overview House: First Look at 2016's Open Seats It's time to face it: congressional elections have moved into an era when there are more competitive primaries than general elections. Nowhere has this been on display more than in open seats, which… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 24, 2015
House Overview House: First Look at 2016's Most Competitive Races How successful will Democrats be in convincing potential recruits that a ballot led by Hillary Clinton in 2016 presents their best opportunity for a promotion? Given their historic low point and… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 17, 2015
House Overview 2016 House: Defining the Battleground Now that the 2016 presidential race has begun in earnest, many hopefuls for House seats will struggle for attention and money, particularly considering the chamber has mostly become a foregone… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 10, 2015
California House Capps Retirement: CA-24 Stays in Likely Democratic Column This afternoon, Santa Barbara Democratic Rep. Lois Capps announced she would retire at the end of her current term. This isn't a surprise, as her daughter, Democratic communications strategist Laura… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 8, 2015
House Overview House Special Election Updates: IL-18, MS-01 and NY-11 House Republicans are down three members from their election night total of 247 seats, but they are virtually certain to retain all three seats in special elections over the next four months. In… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 3, 2015
Illinois House Duckworth Senate Run: IL-08 Remains Solid Democratic This morning, Illinois Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth announced she will challenge GOP Sen. Mark Kirk in 2016. Although Illinois's Senate race is likely to be highly competitive, Democrats are in a… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 30, 2015
California House California: Could SCOTUS Ruling Be a Democratic Bonanza? Could the Supreme Court help House Democrats hit the jackpot in California next year? The prospect of a Golden State mid-decade redistricting, dependent on the outcome of a much-watched Arizona case… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 27, 2015
Florida House Murphy Senate Run Moves FL-18 to Toss Up This morning, sophomore Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18) announced he would run for Senate in 2016, giving Democrats a credible candidate for GOP Sen. Marco Rubio's seat. But Democrats will be… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 23, 2015
Arizona House Arizona: How the GOP Could Redraw the Lines As we noted several weeks ago, Arizona was a rare bright spot for Democrats in the 2012 round of redistricting: under a new map, they captured five of the state's nine districts that year and managed… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 20, 2015
Illinois House Schock Resignation: IL-18 Remains Solid Republican Illinois GOP Rep. Aaron Schock announced today that he would resign effective March 31 amid mounting questions about his improper use of campaign and official funds. Earlier this month, Schock repaid… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 17, 2015
Arkansas House Arkansas: 2016 House Baselines Just five years ago, Democrats held Arkansas's governorship, both its Senate seats, and three out of its four House seats. Today, Republicans hold all of these offices - a total shutout. In 2014,… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 13, 2015
Arizona House Arizona: 2016 House Baselines Most people don't think things could get any worse for House Democrats. But a Supreme Court case expected to be decided by June could actually cost Democrats two more seats in Arizona, putting them… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 27, 2015
Alabama House Alabama: 2016 House Baselines Alabama may be in the throes of a major cultural fight over State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore's refusal to abide by a federal court's ruling legalizing same sex marriage. But it's not a… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 20, 2015
Mississippi House MS-01: Republicans Near Lock to Hold Nunnelee Seat in Special Election GOP Rep. Alan Nunnelee's death last week following a battle with brain cancer means there will be a special election in northern Mississippi's 1st CD for the second time in seven years. In 2008, when… David Wasserman David Wasserman February 13, 2015
House Overview 2016 Baseline Analysis for At-Large States All seven states with only one House seat have experienced at least one turbulent, competitive House race in the past decade. That's surprising, given that none of these small states - Alaska,… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 30, 2015
House Overview Three Northeast GOP Open Seats Kick Off 2015 For both parties, the new year is a time to reflect and regroup. For Republicans and NRCC Chair Rep. Greg Walden, that means figuring out how to stay the course and preserve 2014 gains during a more… David Wasserman David Wasserman January 16, 2015
House Overview Quantifying the 2014 House GOP "Wave" Now that virtually all votes have been counted, there are countless ways to dissect what happened. And while Republicans are almost certain to wind up with an historic majority of 247 seats (pending… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 5, 2014
House Overview Quantifying the 2014 House GOP "Wave" Now that virtually all votes have been counted, there are countless ways to dissect what happened. And while Republicans are almost certain to wind up with an historic majority of 247 seats (pending… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 5, 2014
House Overview House Over-Performers vs. Over-Achievers Republicans absolutely cleaned up on Election Day a month ago. But, the swing from one election to the next is never uniform. Some Republicans did even better than could have been anticipated and "… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 5, 2014
Tennessee House Tennessee: 2014 House Baselines Republicans' 2012 redistricting map effectively packed Democrats into just two districts, the Nashville-based 5th and the Memphis-based 9th, and the GOP's 7-2 edge looks solid for the foreseeable… David Wasserman David Wasserman December 4, 2014
Louisiana House Louisiana: House Runoffs Look Safe for GOP There are only two more House races to be held in 2014, and both are Louisiana runoffs taking place in safely GOP open seats. Barring a huge upset, these wins will put Republicans at 247 seats next… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 21, 2014
House Overview House: Late Ballots Cut Democrats' Losses For House Democrats, Election Night was something close to a nightmare. But ever since then, Democrats have received a steady stream of consolation prizes. A thin silver lining though it might be,… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 14, 2014
House Overview First Impressions: Historic GOP House Majority It's hard to overstate House Democrats' bad night. By all measures, Republicans enjoyed an historic night, exceeding pre-election expectations across the country. There are fewer than ten races where… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 5, 2014
House Overview Final Preview: 7 Things to Watch in the House For political junkies fraught with anticipation, it's Christmas Eve. Tomorrow, most will be glued to to the question of whether Republicans take back the Senate. But, there are some unresolved… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 3, 2014
House Overview Final House Independent Expenditure Tracker Just how narrow was the 2014 House playing field? Our final ratings chart lists just 39 seats as competitive, compared to 57 at this point in 2012 and 100 at this point in 2010. But what's even more… David Wasserman David Wasserman November 3, 2014
House House: Double-Digit GOP Gains Now Possible With less than a week to go, the momentum is clearly with Republicans, and House Democrats are bracing for the possibility that Election Night could be uglier than they originally thought. The DCCC… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 29, 2014
House Final Rundown: Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents "Double Down" is the name of a best-selling book about the 2012 election, not to mention a very caloric sandwich at KFC, but the phrase applies just as well to House Democrats in 2014. Everyone knows… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 24, 2014
House House Ratings Update: Late-Breaking Sleepers or Manufactured Hype? Up until last week, Massachusetts's open 6th CD and New Jersey's open 3rd CD were the most-watched races in their respective states. But now that it's October and everyone is looking for potential… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 22, 2014
House Overview House Overview: GOP on Track to Gain 4 to 10 Seats It's mid-October, so cue the craziness: if you believed every one of the hundreds of new polls or ad buys floating around, you might think Rep. Bill Keating (MA-09) is losing reelection in a heavily… David Wasserman David Wasserman October 17, 2014
South Carolina House South Carolina: 2014 House Baselines When South Carolina gained a seat in 2012 reapportionment, Republicans simply added a new GOP-leaning seat in the fast-growing Myrtle Beach area, and their 6-1 edge looks durable. After last year's… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 18, 2014
Rhode Island House Rhode Island: 2014 House Baselines With all eyes on a fiercely contested governor's race, Rhode Island's House delegation looks pretty well settled. Last cycle, Republicans threw everything they had at Democratic Rep. David Cicilline… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 18, 2014
National Playing the Name Game for 2016 With all eyes on a fiercely contested governor's race, Rhode Island's House delegation looks pretty well settled. Last cycle, Republicans threw everything they had at Democratic Rep. David Cicilline… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 18, 2014
National On Points: Anti-Obamacare Ads Keep on Rolling Number of new anti-“Obamacare” campaign or issue commercials launched since the first open enrollment window closed on March 31: 32. Number of pro-Affordable Care Act campaign or issue ads launched… David Wasserman David Wasserman April 15, 2014
Oklahoma House A Tough Year for Democrats There has been a growing sense in recent weeks that the odds of Republicans picking up a Senate majority in November are not only growing, they may well have tipped over to better than 50-50. The… David Wasserman David Wasserman March 27, 2014