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David Wasserman
David Wasserman
Analysis by David Wasserman
Redistricting
Idaho: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
March 5, 2021
Redistricting
Hawaii: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
March 5, 2021
Redistricting
Georgia: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
March 5, 2021
Redistricting
Florida: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
February 26, 2021
Redistricting
Colorado: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
February 19, 2021
Redistricting
Connecticut: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
February 19, 2021
Redistricting
California: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
February 12, 2021
Texas House
TX-06: Wright's Vacancy Could Generate Competitive Special Election
David Wasserman
February 8, 2021
Redistricting
Arizona: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
February 5, 2021
Redistricting
Arkansas: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
February 5, 2021
Redistricting
Alabama: 2021 Redistricting Preview
David Wasserman
January 29, 2021
Redistricting
The Cook Political Report's 2021 Redistricting Overview
David Wasserman
January 26, 2021
House Overview
Fallout From the House GOP Leadership Fracture
David Wasserman
January 14, 2021
House Overview
The State of Play in (Soon-to-Be) Five House Vacancies
David Wasserman
January 8, 2021
House Overview
Five Takeaways From Our 2020 House Forecast — and Three Resolutions for 2021 and Beyond
David Wasserman
December 18, 2020
House Overview
Republicans Hold Razor-Thin Leads as IA-02 and NY-22 Descend Into Legal Chaos
David Wasserman
November 30, 2020
House Overview
House Democrats' Majority Keeps Getting Narrower
David Wasserman
November 20, 2020
House Overview
Where Will the House Count Land? 2020's Uncalled Races
Democrats' bad election night in the House hasn't gotten any better with time. Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold onto the gavel, but Republicans are on pace to cut Democrats' majority by more than half…
David Wasserman
November 13, 2020
House Overview
House Republicans Defy the Polls, Narrow Democrats' Majority
David Wasserman
November 4, 2020
House Overview
Final House Ratings: Democrats Poised to Expand Majority by 10 to 15 Seats
David Wasserman
November 2, 2020
National Politics
Yes, the Polls Could Be Wrong. but That Could Help Biden, Not Just Trump
David Wasserman
October 27, 2020
House Overview
House Rating Changes: 12 Races on the Move, Almost All Towards Democrats
David Wasserman
October 21, 2020
National Politics
What One Florida County Could Tell Us About a "Gray Revolt" on Election Night
David Wasserman
October 16, 2020
National Politics
The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble
David Wasserman
October 9, 2020
House Overview
October House Overview: Democrats Poised to Expand Majority
David Wasserman
October 8, 2020
Oregon House
Rating Change: DeFazio's OR-04 Moves From Likely to Lean Democrat
David Wasserman
October 2, 2020
National Politics
Trump is Losing, but He's Winning Key Voter Registration Battles
David Wasserman
October 2, 2020
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Seven Races Move, Mostly Towards Democrats
David Wasserman
September 29, 2020
National Politics
Demographic Change Since 2016 Alone Could Be Enough to Defeat Trump
David Wasserman
September 23, 2020
National Politics
Impending SCOTUS Fight Could Split the Trump Coalition
David Wasserman
September 19, 2020
Virginia House
Rating Change: Republicans Sound Alarm, Riggleman's VA-05 Moves to Toss Up
David Wasserman
September 18, 2020
Colorado House
Rating Change: Boebert's Path Gets Rockier, CO-03 Moves to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
September 18, 2020
Maine House
Rating Change: Golden Builds an Advantage, ME-02 Moves to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
September 18, 2020
California House
Rating Change: Issa's Comeback Bid Gets More Complicated in CA-50
David Wasserman
September 11, 2020
National Politics
For Biden to Prevail, He'll Need to Survive a Trump Onslaught Targeted to Working-Class Whites
David Wasserman
September 3, 2020
National Politics
Here Are the Trump Battleground States That Harris Can Help Biden Retake
David Wasserman
August 21, 2020
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Democrats Now Favored to Expand their Majority
David Wasserman
August 14, 2020
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Schweikert, Wagner Move From Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
August 7, 2020
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Cash Disadvantage Compounds GOP Woes
David Wasserman
July 31, 2020
National Politics
The Hidden Mess That Could Cost Democrats Up to Two Points in November
David Wasserman
July 31, 2020
National Politics
Who's Behind Trump's Big Deficit? College-Educated Whites and Seniors
This article was originally published at nbcnews.com on July 22, 2020. In the wake of a pandemic and protests following George Floyd's death, voters' support for President Trump has tanked: his …
David Wasserman
July 24, 2020
House Overview
House Rating Changes: 20 Races Shift Towards Democrats
David Wasserman
July 17, 2020
Political Advertising
Trump's Not Just Losing — His Ad Strategy Looks Misguided
David Wasserman
July 10, 2020
Colorado House
Tipton Defeat Moves CO-03 From Solid to Likely Republican
David Wasserman
July 2, 2020
House Overview
Meet the Candidates: Four 2020 House Hopefuls
In the past week, we met — either virtually or in-person — with four congressional candidates who are adjusting to campaigning in a pandemic. One is seeking to strike up conversations at a distance…
David Wasserman
June 30, 2020
New York House
NY-24: Katko Moves from Likely to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
June 26, 2020
National Politics
Will Tuesday's Primaries Be a Breakthrough for Black Candidates?
David Wasserman
June 19, 2020
Virginia House
Riggleman Defeat Moves VA-05 from Likely to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
June 16, 2020
House Overview
House: The Bottom Line in Republicans' 32 Open Seats
David Wasserman
June 9, 2020
New York House
NY-16: Engel in Serious Danger of Losing Primary to the Left
David Wasserman
June 5, 2020
Iowa House
King Primary Defeat Moves IA-04 to Solid Republican
David Wasserman
June 3, 2020
House Overview
House: The Bottom Line in Democrats' 10 Open Seats
A key reason Democrats remain in a strong position to retain the House majority is the disparity in open seats: roughly three times as many Republicans (27) are retiring or running for other office…
David Wasserman
May 22, 2020
California House
CA-25: Republicans Triumph, Garcia Starts Out in Toss Up for November
David Wasserman
May 13, 2020
House Overview
May 2020 House Overview: Democrats' Advantage Grows
David Wasserman
May 6, 2020
Michigan House
MI-03 Remains in Lean Republican Amid Amash's Presidential Pursuit
David Wasserman
May 1, 2020
House Overview
House FEC Update: Republicans Face a Major 2020 Cash Deficit
The latest campaign finance reports covering the first quarter of 2020 are in, and they couldn't have been much more brutal for Republicans. Freshman Democrats, continuing to ride a wave of anti-…
David Wasserman
April 24, 2020
National Politics
Pandemic Could Lead to Big Voting Access Disparities in November
David Wasserman
April 17, 2020
California House
CA-25: Race to Replace Katie Hill Moves from Lean Democratic to Toss Up
David Wasserman
April 10, 2020
Kentucky House
KY-04: Will DC's Revulsion Towards Massie Sink Him Back Home?
David Wasserman
April 3, 2020
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Fall Outlook Shifts in 10 Districts
David Wasserman
March 27, 2020
California House
House Rating Changes: California Primary Edition
David Wasserman
March 19, 2020
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: Washington to Wyoming
This is the final in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our analysis of the most…
David Wasserman
March 13, 2020
National Politics
Biden's Edge for the Nomination is Even Larger Than It Appears
David Wasserman
March 5, 2020
National Politics
To Beat Trump, Democrats May Need to Break Out of the ‘Whole Foods’ Bubble
David Wasserman
March 3, 2020
Virginia House
2020 House Bottom Lines: Virginia
This is the thirteenth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our analysis of the…
David Wasserman
February 28, 2020
National Politics
Democrats Have Different Routes to Win the Electoral College. None Are Easy.
This article was originally published at nbcnews.com on February 26, 2020. As the Democratic contest hurtles toward South Carolina and Super Tuesday, Democrats face a profound choice as to the…
David Wasserman
February 27, 2020
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: Utah to Vermont
This is the twelfth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our analysis of the most…
David Wasserman
February 21, 2020
Texas House
2020 House Bottom Lines: Texas
The House GOP's "Texodus" — six Republicans are forgoing reelection in 2020 — is one of several reasons Democrats remain favorites to keep their House majority in 2020. Democrats have excellent…
David Wasserman
February 14, 2020
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: South Carolina to Tennessee
This is the tenth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
February 7, 2020
National Politics
Iowa's Caucuses Were a Debacle, but the Biggest Loser Might Be Warren, Not Biden
David Wasserman
February 7, 2020
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: Pennsylvania to Rhode Island
This is the ninth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
January 31, 2020
California House
CA-25 Special Election Moves From Lean to Likely Democratic
David Wasserman
January 24, 2020
National Politics
Who Didn't Vote in 2016? Where Each Party Might Have Upside in 2020
David Wasserman
January 16, 2020
House Overview
2021 Reapportionment and Redistricting Preview: One Year Out
As if a high-stakes presidential race weren't enough, the 2020 Census and 2021 redistricting process is right around the corner. Behind the scenes, the fierce fight over the next decade's political…
David Wasserman
January 10, 2020
Pennsylvania House
Cartwright's Vote for Impeachment Moves PA-08 to Toss Up
David Wasserman
December 20, 2019
Michigan House
MI-03: Amash's District Moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
December 20, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: North Carolina to Oregon
This is the eighth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of…
David Wasserman
December 20, 2019
New Jersey House
Van Drew Party Switch Moves NJ-02 from Toss Up to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
December 16, 2019
House Overview
The House Democrats Most at Risk Over Impeachment
David Wasserman
December 13, 2019
North Carolina House
Rating Changes: Final North Carolina Map Boosts House Democrats
David Wasserman
December 6, 2019
National Politics
Democrats Are Making Big Gains in the Suburbs. Here's Why That May Not Be Enough to Beat Trump.
The article was originally published on NBC.com on November 27, 2019 Democrats are rightfully ecstatic that they won two of the three 2019 elections for governor in deep red Southern states,…
David Wasserman
December 6, 2019
California House
Hunter Guilty Plea Improves Republican Prospects of Holding CA-50
David Wasserman
December 2, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: New Jersey to New York
This is the seventh in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of…
David Wasserman
November 22, 2019
North Carolina House
House: North Carolina Map Drama on Track to Net Democrats at Least Two Seats
David Wasserman
November 21, 2019
House Overview
House Rating Changes: A Tale of Two Trump-District Democrats
David Wasserman
November 15, 2019
New York House
King's Retirement Moves NY-02 From Likely to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
November 11, 2019
National Politics
Democratic Wins Come with a Warning Sign: Low African American Voter Turnout
The article was originally published on NBC.com on November 6, 2019 Democrats are riding high after apparently unseating GOP Gov. Matt Bevin in Kentucky and winning back majorities in both chambers…
David Wasserman
November 8, 2019
National Politics
What U.S. Airports and International Flights Can Tell Us About the 2020 Election
David Wasserman
November 1, 2019
North Carolina House
New North Carolina Map Could Boost House Democrats
On Monday, a panel of three North Carolina state judges blocked the current GOP-drawn congressional map from being used for the 2020 elections, ruling it a partisan gerrymander that violates the…
David Wasserman
November 1, 2019
California House
Hill Resignation Moves CA-25 to Lean Democrat
David Wasserman
October 28, 2019
House Overview
Meet the Candidates: Six Democratic 2020 House Hopefuls
David Wasserman
October 25, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: Minnesota to New Hampshire
This is the sixth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
October 18, 2019
New York House
Lowey to Retire, NY-17 Remains in Solid Democratic
On Thursday, Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey (NY-17) became the second Appropriations Committee chair in a row to announce retirement just months after first taking the gavel. But unlike New Jersey's…
David Wasserman
October 11, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: Iowa to Michigan
This is the fifth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
October 4, 2019
New York House
Collins Resignation Moves NY-27 to Solid Republican
David Wasserman
September 30, 2019
House Overview
The Risks of Impeachment for House Democrats
David Wasserman
September 27, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: Georgia to Indiana
This is the fourth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of…
David Wasserman
September 20, 2019
North Carolina House
Five Takeaways from Republicans' Narrow NC-09 Escape
David Wasserman
September 11, 2019
Minnesota House
MN-07: Peterson Moves from Lean Democratic to Toss Up
David Wasserman
September 6, 2019
North Carolina House
NC-09: Republicans Risk Special Election Loss in Critical 2020 State
David Wasserman
September 6, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: Colorado to Florida
This is the third in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
August 30, 2019
House Charts
The Cook Political Report's 2020 House District Databook
David Wasserman
August 30, 2019
Wisconsin House
Duffy's Resignation Moves WI-07 from Solid to Likely Republican
David Wasserman
August 26, 2019
California House
2020 House Bottom Lines: California
David Wasserman
August 23, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Overview: Can Republicans Stave Off a Mass Exodus?
David Wasserman
August 7, 2019
Texas House
Texodus Continues: TX-24 Remains in Toss Up After Marchant's Retirement
David Wasserman
August 5, 2019
Texas House
Texas Exodus: Hurd's Retirement Moves TX-23 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
August 2, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Bottom Lines: Alabama to Arkansas
This is the first in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2020. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
July 26, 2019
Texas House
Olson Retirement Moves TX-22 from Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
July 25, 2019
National Politics
How Trump Could Lose by Five Million Votes and Still Win in 2020
David Wasserman
July 22, 2019
North Carolina House
Two Months Out: North Carolina Special Elections Preview
David Wasserman
July 19, 2019
House Overview
Pelosi vs. the 'Squad': Keeping Democrats' Newcomers in Perspective
David Wasserman
July 11, 2019
Michigan House
Amash's Departure From the GOP Moves MI-03 From Solid Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
July 8, 2019
House Overview
Supreme Court Rejects Challenge to Partisan Gerrymandering
David Wasserman
June 27, 2019
Virginia House
SCOTUS's Virginia Redistricting Ruling: What Does it Mean?
David Wasserman
June 21, 2019
Montana House
MT-AL Remains in Likely Republican Following Gianforte's Announcement
David Wasserman
June 7, 2019
House Overview
New Census Data Reinforces Urgency of House GOP's Female Recruitment Push
David Wasserman
April 26, 2019
Iowa House
Loebsack's Retirement Moves IA-02 From Likely Democratic to Toss Up
David Wasserman
April 12, 2019
National Politics
Trump May Have an Unlikely Re-election Ally
(The article originally appeared in The New York Times on March 13, 2019) Donald Trump’s low approval ratings have attracted a crush of Democrats vying to make him a one-term president. But he…
David Wasserman
March 15, 2019
House Overview
2020 House Overview: Can Democrats Keep Their Majority?
David Wasserman
March 1, 2019
North Carolina House
NC-09 Remains in Toss Up After New Election Ordered
David Wasserman
February 21, 2019
Georgia House
Woodall Retirement Moves GA-07 to Top of Democrats' 2020 Pickup List
David Wasserman
February 7, 2019
National Politics
An Early Look at 2021 Reapportionment
David Wasserman
February 1, 2019
Pennsylvania House
PA-12 to Remain in Solid Republican Following Marino's Exit
David Wasserman
January 18, 2019
House Charts
Introducing The Cook Political Report's 2020 House Ratings
David Wasserman
December 12, 2018
North Carolina House
Deepening Absentee Ballot Scandal Leaves NC-09 Outcome in Doubt
David Wasserman
December 4, 2018
House Overview
Final House Breakdown and Challenges for the New Chairs
David Wasserman
November 30, 2018
House Overview
House Update: Where Will Democrats' Gains Land?
The last week of ballot counting has mostly brought good news for Democrats and made Republicans' bad Election Night even worse. Democrats now appear to be the victors in 232 seats to 199 for…
David Wasserman
November 16, 2018
Five Takeaways From Democrats' House Triumph
David Wasserman
November 8, 2018
House Overview
An Election Night Guide to the House: Nine Types of Districts to Watch
Democrats' path to a majority has always run through the suburbs. And thanks to President Trump's terrible approval ratings among college-educated women, a historic number of GOP open seats and…
David Wasserman
November 5, 2018
House Overview
Final House Ratings: 75 Competitive Races, Ten Rating Changes
David Wasserman
November 5, 2018
House Overview
One Week Out, Six Rating Changes
David Wasserman
October 30, 2018
House Overview
Ten Rating Changes as Democrats' Enthusiasm Edge Narrows and Fundraising Advantage Widens
David Wasserman
October 23, 2018
House Overview
Nine Kinds of Races That Will Decide the Fate of the House
David Wasserman
October 19, 2018
New York House
NY-11: Donovan Moves to Lean Republican on Staten Island
Most New York observers assumed Democrats' lost their best fall hope when GOP Rep. Dan Donovan (NY-11) soundly defeated convicted felon and former Rep. Michael Grimm in the June primary. After all,…
David Wasserman
October 17, 2018
Ohio House
OH-12: Once Again a Toss Up as Balderson Seeks a Full Term
David Wasserman
October 17, 2018
Minnesota House
MN-08 Rating Change: Odds of GOP Takeover Improve on the Iron Range
David Wasserman
October 16, 2018
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Post-Kavanaugh Polls Reveal an Even More Polarized Landscape
David Wasserman
October 12, 2018
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Eight More GOP Seats Move Towards Democrats
David Wasserman
October 3, 2018
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Five More Races Move Towards Democrats
David Wasserman
September 26, 2018
New Mexico House
NM-02: Torres Small's Appeal Moves Race to Toss Up
This rural southern New Mexico seat is the state's most GOP-friendly: it voted for President Trump 50 percent to 40 percent in 2016. But it's not uncharted territory for Democrats: in 2008, when GOP…
David Wasserman
September 19, 2018
Minnesota House
Paulsen's Deficit Moves MN-03 From Toss up to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
September 19, 2018
Florida House
Shalala's Flaws Move FL-27 From Lean Democratic to Toss Up
David Wasserman
September 19, 2018
House Overview
Triage Mode for GOP, Rating Changes in Six Districts
Seven weeks out, Republicans face difficult choices: which of their own districts should they abandon to focus resources on other districts that are savable? At this point, a number of GOP incumbents…
David Wasserman
September 19, 2018
New York House
NY-27: Collins to Remain on Ballot, Race Moves to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
September 18, 2018
House Overview
House Rating Changes: New Hampshire Primaries Boost Democrats
David Wasserman
September 12, 2018
Texas House
O'Rourke's Competitiveness Could Have Down-Ballot Implications
The marquee clash between GOP Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke has clearly tightened, and Democrats are (perhaps overly) excited about the potential for a historic breakthrough in the…
David Wasserman
September 7, 2018
Missouri House
MO-02: Wagner Moves From Likely Republican to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
September 7, 2018
House Overview
2018 Is Set to Be a Record-Shattering Year for Women in the House
David Wasserman
September 7, 2018
Virginia House
VA-02: Taylor Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
September 6, 2018
Iowa House
IA-01: Blum Moves From Toss up to Lean Democratic
Iowa GOP Rep. Rod Blum has consistently been underestimated, and in 2016 he won reelection 54 percent to 46 percent while President Trump carried the district 48 percent to 45 percent. But on Tuesday…
David Wasserman
September 6, 2018
House Charts
Complete District by District With Interactive Maps
David Wasserman
August 24, 2018
House Overview
August House Overview: The Bottom Line in the 66 Most Competitive Races
David Wasserman
August 24, 2018
Iowa House
IA-04: King Moves From Solid to Likely Republican
David Wasserman
August 22, 2018
Alaska House
AK-AL: Young Moves From Solid to Likely Republican
The new dean of the House has survived dozens of close calls since 1973, but 22-term GOP Rep. Don Young faces a new kind of opponent in 2018. Thanks to a recent state supreme court ruling,…
David Wasserman
August 22, 2018
California House
CA-50: Hunter Indictment Moves Race from Solid to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
August 21, 2018
South Carolina House
SC-01: Sanford's Open Seat Moves to Lean Republican
In June, defense contractor and conservative state Rep. Katie Arrington unseated Trump critic and GOP Rep. Mark Sanford in the Republican primary, 51 percent to 47 percent. Ten days later, Arrington…
David Wasserman
August 17, 2018
House Overview
House: Three More GOP Seats Join the Toss Up Column
David Wasserman
August 15, 2018
House Overview
House: Rating Changes in Five GOP-Held Seats
David Wasserman
August 8, 2018
New York House
Collins Indicted, NY-27 Moves to Likely Republican
David Wasserman
August 8, 2018
House Overview
Mapping Democrats' Path to 218: The Eight Types of Races That Will Decide the House
David Wasserman
August 3, 2018
House Overview
The Bottom Line in Republicans' 42 Open Seats
David Wasserman
July 27, 2018
Pennsylvania House
PA-17: Rothfus vs. Lamb Clash Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
July 24, 2018
House Overview
House: Bottom Lines in Democrats' 22 Open Seats
The first step of Democrats' path back to the majority is defending the seats they already hold. Fortunately for them, out of the 20 open seats and two vacancies on the Democratic side, 15 are in…
David Wasserman
July 20, 2018
House Overview
Risk Factors for 2018 Q2 GOP House Incumbents
Armed with fresh FEC data from the second quarter of 2018, we have updated our table listing seven "risk factors" to gauge Republican incumbents' political health and readiness for a wave election.…
David Wasserman
July 18, 2018
House Overview
New FEC Data Points to Severe Risk for House GOP
David Wasserman
July 18, 2018
Iowa House
IA-03: Young Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
July 18, 2018
Ohio House
OH-12: Special Election Going Down to the Wire
David Wasserman
July 18, 2018
Michigan House
MI-08: Bishop Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
July 13, 2018
Illinois House
IL-13: Davis Moves From Likely Republican to Lean Republican
In 2011, Illinois Democrats tried to draw the 13th to elect one of their own by connecting the disparate college towns of Champaign-Urbana, Bloomington-Normal and Edwardsville with union-heavy cities…
David Wasserman
July 13, 2018
Maine House
ME-02: Poliquin Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
July 13, 2018
Florida House
House: Ratings Changes in Two Florida Races
Although Republicans are still favored to win, Democrats are talking about two Florida districts they haven't talked about in years: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan's 16th CD in Sarasota and GOP Rep. Ron…
David Wasserman
July 13, 2018
House Overview
July House Overview: Democrats Remain Slight Favorites for Majority
Four months out, the battle for House control remains highly competitive. But Democrats remain the narrow favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need to win the majority. Based on the Republicans'…
David Wasserman
July 10, 2018
House Overview
House Ratings Changes: 10 Districts Move, Mostly in Democrats' Direction
David Wasserman
July 10, 2018
Virginia House
VA-07: Brat Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
July 6, 2018
Pennsylvania House
PA-01: Fitzpatrick Moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
July 6, 2018
New York House
Initial Thoughts in the Aftermath of Crowley's Defeat
David Wasserman
June 27, 2018
West Virginia House
WV-03: Why a District Trump Won by 50 Points Is at Risk for GOP
David Wasserman
June 20, 2018
Texas House
TX-31: Carter Moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
Texas GOP Rep. John Carter has never faced a competitive general election since winning his seat in 2002. The attorney former longtime county judge, now 76, has been a fixture in local politics for…
David Wasserman
June 20, 2018
Kentucky House
KY-06: Barr Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
June 18, 2018
Virginia House
VA-10: Comstock Moves From Toss up to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
June 18, 2018
Texas House
TX-32: Sessions Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
June 15, 2018
House Overview
House Ratings Changes: Democrats Breathe a California-Sized Sigh of Relief
David Wasserman
June 8, 2018
California House
Final California Primary Preview: High Stakes for House Democrats
David Wasserman
June 4, 2018
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Washington to Wyoming
This is the final in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
June 1, 2018
Virginia House
VA-05 Remains in Lean Republican Following Garrett's Retirement
David Wasserman
May 29, 2018
House Overview
The Drive to Elect Women Is Defining 2018's Democratic Primaries
David Wasserman
May 24, 2018
House Overview
House Ratings Changes: GOP Fortunes Improve in Four Districts
David Wasserman
May 22, 2018
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Utah to Virginia
David Wasserman
May 10, 2018
North Carolina House
NC-08: Hudson Moves from Solid to Likely Republican
On Tuesday, oil and propane businessman Frank McNeill won the Democratic nomination to face three-term GOP Rep. Richard Hudson in North Carolina's 8th CD. McNeill, a former mayor of Aberdeen (…
David Wasserman
May 10, 2018
Pennsylvania House
Pennsylvania Primary Update: How Democrats Could Whiff on a Top Target
The Keystone State is chock full of targets for Democrats after the state Supreme Court redrew the state's map in February. If every race were to go their way, they could pick up six seats — a…
David Wasserman
May 4, 2018
Virginia House
VA-10 Preview: Democrats Fight to Take on Most Vulnerable GOP House Incumbent
David Wasserman
May 3, 2018
California House
House: Democrats Risk Disaster in California's Top Two Primaries
David Wasserman
May 2, 2018
Ohio House
OH-12: Both Parties' Primaries Going Down to the Wire
David Wasserman
May 2, 2018
House Overview
More GOP Trouble Looms in Toss Up OH-12 Special Election
GOP Rep.-Elect Debbie Lesko's victory over Democratic physician Hiral Tipirneni in this week's AZ-08 special election wasn't supposed to be this close. Lesko's five-point margin in a district…
David Wasserman
April 27, 2018
House Overview
Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents
David Wasserman
April 20, 2018
House Overview
New House FEC Reports: Rating Changes in 7 Districts (Bottom Lines)
Bottom Lines are our most current take on a race. Here's our latest on the ratings we shifted in 7 districts. Updated Bottom Lines AR-02: French Hill (R) — Central: Little RockLean Republican.…
David Wasserman
April 18, 2018
House Overview
New House FEC Reports: Rating Changes in 7 Districts
David Wasserman
April 18, 2018
Texas House
2018 House Bottom Lines: Texas
Texas is poised for a change in 2018: eight of its 36 House races feature no incumbent. And, for the first time in over a decade, GOP Rep. Will Hurd's 23rd CD might not be the only competitive…
David Wasserman
April 13, 2018
Florida House
Ross Retirement Moves FL-15 from Solid to Likely Republican
On the same morning Speaker Paul Ryan announced his retirement, Florida GOP Rep. Dennis Ross announced he won't seek a fifth term this fall. Florida's 15th CD, encompassing the outer Tampa suburbs,…
David Wasserman
April 11, 2018
Wisconsin House
Ryan Retirement Puts WI-01 at Risk and Throws House GOP Into Deeper Turmoil
David Wasserman
April 11, 2018
House Overview
April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts (Bottom Lines)
Bottom Lines are our most current take on a race. Here's our latest on the ratings we shifted left in 13 districts. Updated Bottom Lines CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Central Valley: Hanford, parts of…
David Wasserman
April 6, 2018
House Overview
April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts
David Wasserman
April 6, 2018
Connecticut House
Esty Debacle Moves CT-05 From Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic
David Wasserman
April 2, 2018
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Rhode Island to Tennessee
This is the ninth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
March 30, 2018
Pennsylvania House
Costello Retirement Moves PA-06 from Toss Up to Likely Democratic
David Wasserman
March 26, 2018
Pennsylvania House
2018 House Bottom Lines: Pennsylvania
In February, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court imposed a new congressional map after striking down the 2011 GOP-drawn map as an unconstitutional gerrymander. The ruling probably wouldn't have been…
David Wasserman
March 23, 2018
New York House
NY-25: Slaughter's Passing Creates a Rochester Vacancy
Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter's death last Friday at age 88 creates a vacancy that will lead to the seventh New York special election in the last decade. Slaughter, the former chair of the House…
David Wasserman
March 22, 2018
House Overview
Ratings Changes in 10 Districts
Democrat Conor Lamb's victory in a district that voted for President Trump by nearly 20 points has many House Republicans sitting in less Trump-friendly districts on heightened alert. Of the 120…
David Wasserman
March 16, 2018
House Overview
March House Update: Ratings Changes in 10 Districts
Democrat Conor Lamb's victory in a district that voted for President Trump by nearly 20 points has many House Republicans sitting in less Trump-friendly districts on heightened alert. Of the 120…
David Wasserman
March 16, 2018
Pennsylvania House
PA-18 Result Is Latest Blow to GOP Odds of Holding the House
David Wasserman
March 14, 2018
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Ohio to Oregon
This is the eighth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of…
David Wasserman
March 9, 2018
Arizona House
AZ-08: Republicans Retain Advantage in Special Election
Republicans avoided a potential headache on Tuesday when former state Sen. Debbie Lesko won the GOP primary to fill former Rep. Trent Franks's vacant Arizona seat with 35 percent of the vote. Former…
David Wasserman
March 2, 2018
Pennsylvania House
PA-18 Special Election Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
February 27, 2018
Texas House
Texas: House Primaries to Watch
David Wasserman
February 23, 2018
Pennsylvania House
New Pennsylvania Map: Bottom Lines
Bottom Lines are race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district. The full report on Pennsylvania redistricting can be found here. Pennsylvania Race…
David Wasserman
February 20, 2018
Pennsylvania House
New Pennsylvania Map Is a Major Boost for Democrats
David Wasserman
February 20, 2018
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: New York to North Dakota
This is the seventh in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of…
David Wasserman
February 16, 2018
California House
Battle for the House: Are Crowded Democratic Primaries a Blessing or a Curse?
David Wasserman
February 15, 2018
Minnesota House
Nolan Retirement Doesn't Change Toss Up Rating in MN-08
David Wasserman
February 9, 2018
House Overview
Ratings Changes in 21 Districts
David Wasserman
February 8, 2018
House Overview
February House Overview
The first two months of 2018 have given both parties reasons for optimism. Republicans have cut Democrats' lead in the FiveThirtyEight average of generic congressional ballot polls in half, from…
David Wasserman
February 8, 2018
House Overview
2018 House Special Election Updates
A trio of Republican resignations since October have prompted 2018 special elections. The March 13 race in Pennsylvania's 18th CD to fill Rep. Tim Murphy's seat is the most competitive, but the…
David Wasserman
February 2, 2018
New Jersey House
Frelinghuysen Retires, NJ-11 Stays in Toss Up
David Wasserman
January 29, 2018
FiveThirtyEight
Hating Gerrymandering Is Easy. Fixing It Is Harder.
This feature was originally published at fivethirtyeight.com. It is part their Gerrymandering Project series. Check it out here. As politics in the U.S. has polarized along geographic and racial…
David Wasserman
January 26, 2018
Pennsylvania House
Democrats Shouldn't Celebrate Pennsylvania Redistricting Ruling Just Yet
David Wasserman
January 24, 2018
Pennsylvania House
Meehan Scandal Moves PA-07 to Toss Up
David Wasserman
January 24, 2018
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Mississippi to New Mexico
This is the sixth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
January 19, 2018
Washington House
Rating Change: McMorris Rodgers No Longer Safe in WA-05
Eastern Washington is not normally a place you'd expect a competitive House race, but in this political climate, problems for Republicans are popping up in surprising places. House GOP Conference…
David Wasserman
January 12, 2018
Arizona House
McSally Senate Bid Moves AZ-02 to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
January 12, 2018
California House
Issa Retirement Moves CA-49 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
January 10, 2018
California House
Royce Retirement Moves CA-39 from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
January 8, 2018
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Maine to Minnesota
This is the fifth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
December 22, 2017
House Overview
House: 2017 Special Elections Portend a 2018 Wave
Of the six federal special elections contested by both parties this year, Alabama's Senate race was the first Democrats won. But taken together, they point to an alarming trend for the GOP: the Trump…
David Wasserman
December 15, 2017
Kentucky House
KY-06: Gray's Entry Moves Barr to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
December 8, 2017
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Indiana to Louisiana
This is the fourth in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of…
David Wasserman
December 8, 2017
House Overview
Kihuen, Levin Developments Shake Up Democratic Seats
David Wasserman
December 4, 2017
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Georgia to Illinois
This is the third in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
December 1, 2017
House Overview
House: Ratings Changes in Seven Districts as GOP Majority in Peril
David Wasserman
November 17, 2017
FiveThirtyEight
The One County In America That Voted In A Landslide For Both Trump And Obama
David Wasserman
November 10, 2017
New Jersey House
LoBiondo Retirement Moves NJ-02 from Solid Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
November 7, 2017
Virginia Governor
A Viewer's Guide to Tracking the Virginia Governor's Race
Tonight's most closely watched race, the Virginia gubernatorial contest between Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie, is going down to the wire. To help you figure out who's on track to…
David Wasserman
November 7, 2017
Texas House
Hensarling, Smith Retirements Don't Alter House Math
David Wasserman
November 3, 2017
House Overview
Updated Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents
Democrats' steady lead in generic congressional ballot polls points to big midterm danger for House Republicans. But at this point in an election cycle, race-by-race polling is scarce and it's tricky…
David Wasserman
October 27, 2017
House Overview
House: Ratings Changes in 12 Districts as Democrats Gain Momentum
David Wasserman
October 13, 2017
House Overview
Democrats Could Use a Few More GOP House Retirements
A little over a year out, Democrats' prospects of winning back the House look considerably brighter in nationwide polls than they do in a race-by-race analysis. Since June, the FiveThirtyEight…
David Wasserman
October 6, 2017
Pennsylvania House
Murphy Resignation Creates PA-18 Special Election Headache for GOP
David Wasserman
October 5, 2017
Virginia House
Why Virginia's Delegate Races Could Be the Most Telling 2017 Elections
The Alabama Senate special election and the Virginia gubernatorial race are near-certain to dominate political pundits' attention this fall. But they could be poor predictors of 2018. The former is…
David Wasserman
September 29, 2017
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Colorado to Florida
This is the second in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of…
David Wasserman
September 22, 2017
Michigan House
Trott Retirement Moves MI-11 from Likely Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
September 11, 2017
Pennsylvania House
Dent Retirement Gives Democrats an Opportunity in PA-15
David Wasserman
September 8, 2017
FiveThirtyEight
2018 Could Be The Year Of The Angry White College Graduate
Even with the political winds at their back, Democrats enter the 2018 congressional midterms at a historic geographic disadvantage. They also face demographic hurdles: Midterm electorates tend to be…
David Wasserman
September 8, 2017
Washington House
Reichert Retirement Moves WA-08 to Toss Up
David Wasserman
September 6, 2017
House Overview
2018 House Bottom Lines: Alabama to California
This is the first in a series of race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district in 2018. Throughout the cycle, watch for our detailed analysis of the…
David Wasserman
September 1, 2017
Maine House
ME-02: Poliquin Moves to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
August 25, 2017
Texas House
Texas Redistricting Ruling Mostly Good News for GOP
David Wasserman
August 18, 2017
FiveThirtyEight
The Congressional Map Has A Record-Setting Bias Against Democrats
When Democrats think about their party’s problems on the political map, they tend to think of President Trump’s ability to win the White House despite losing the popular vote and Republicans’ potent…
David Wasserman
August 9, 2017
House Overview
House: Can Democrats Dodge the Carpetbagger Label in 2018?
Democrats' chances of retaking the House in 2018 depend on the success or failure of candidates like Elissa Slotkin. At 41, she has compiled the kind of impressive national security resume her party…
David Wasserman
August 4, 2017
House Overview
Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents
Multiple indicators, including generic congressional ballot polls, President Trump's tepid approval recent special election results, point to broad midterm danger for Republicans. But as we noted…
David Wasserman
July 28, 2017
Utah House
UT-03 Special Election: GOP Primary Heats Up
David Wasserman
July 21, 2017
House Overview
House: Rating Changes Favor Democrats in 10 Districts
This is a tricky point in the election cycle to begin making predictions. On one hand, the danger signs are everywhere for the GOP: President Trump's approval is mired in the high 30s, and support…
David Wasserman
July 7, 2017
New York House
NY-22: Tenney Gets a Challenger, Race Moves to Lean Republican
David Wasserman
June 30, 2017
House Overview
GA-06: Why Handel's Win Isn't a Disaster for Democrats
It's a devastating psychological blow for a party to spend over $30 million on a House special election and still lose. For Democrats, Jon Ossoff's defeat to Karen Handel stings, and the blame game…
David Wasserman
June 21, 2017
Georgia House
Putting GA-06 in Perspective
The huge story out of last week's UK parliamentary elections was that Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to call them backfired spectacularly. Less noticed here, but perhaps with much larger…
David Wasserman
June 16, 2017
Georgia House
GA-06 Special Still Too Close to Call
David Wasserman
June 9, 2017
House Overview
Montana's Outcome is Still Bad News for House Republicans
David Wasserman
June 2, 2017
House Overview
A Smarter Way to Interpret 2017's Special Elections
David Wasserman
May 24, 2017
New Jersey House
Even Senior House Republicans Are at Risk in 2018
David Wasserman
May 19, 2017
House Overview
House Specials Update: MT-AL Moves to Lean Republican
Georgia's special election is now officially the most expensive House race of all time: the candidates and parties will likely spend in excess of $40 million to win that deadlocked race. But it's…
David Wasserman
May 12, 2017
House Overview
House 2018: Rating Changes in 20 Districts
David Wasserman
May 5, 2017
Florida House
Ros-Lehtinen Retirement Moves FL-27 to Lean Democratic
Florida GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's retirement, first reported by the Miami Herald, vaults her Miami district to the very top of Democrats' takeover list. Over 27 years in the House, Ros-Lehtinen'…
David Wasserman
May 1, 2017
Virginia House
Rating Change in VA-10: Wexton Bid Moves Comstock to Toss Up
David Wasserman
April 21, 2017
Georgia House
GA-06: Still a Toss Up as Ossoff and Handel Advance to Runoff
If you had told Democrats three months ago that first-time candidate Jon Ossoff would have taken 48 percent of the vote to advance to the GA-06 runoff against GOP former Secretary of State Karen…
David Wasserman
April 19, 2017
Georgia House
GA-06: Four Days Until the Primary
David Wasserman
April 14, 2017
House Overview
KS-04 Moves to Lean Republican, GA-06 to Toss Up
In the final hours of the special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo in Wichita, Kansas, Republicans are expressing alarm that Democrat James Thompson is within striking distance of…
David Wasserman
April 10, 2017
Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index
The Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 20th anniversary edition of the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for all 50 states and 435 Congressional districts in the country, compiled especially…
David Wasserman
April 7, 2017
House Overview
KS-04 Special Election Moves to Likely Republican
In a sign of the times, there's mounting GOP concern in an unlikely place: Wichita, Kansas. With four days to go until the April 11 special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo, the NRCC…
David Wasserman
April 6, 2017
Minnesota House
Walz's Bid for Governor Moves MN-01 to Toss Up
There's a tendency in Washington to believe Democrats have hit rock bottom in rural America, but the party still holds 12 House seats in districts President Trump carried. Three are in Minnesota.…
David Wasserman
March 31, 2017
House Overview
GA-06 Special Election Moves to Lean Republican
It's hard to remember the last time a House race became as much of a national fixation as the race in GA-06 to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price. With less than three weeks left until the initial April…
David Wasserman
March 31, 2017
FiveThirtyEight
Republicans Could Pay A Price For Ditching Trump — Even If He’s Unpopular
President Trump’s private warning that 2018 could be a “bloodbath” if Republicans don’t make good on his promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act may sound like hyperbole, but Republicans thinking…
David Wasserman
March 23, 2017
House Overview
House: 2018 Bottom Lines in 57 Districts to Watch - Part II
President Trump's election was probably the best thing to happen to Democrats' chances of retaking the House majority in 2018, and his rocky start has the out party energized. But to pick up 24 seats…
David Wasserman
March 3, 2017
House Overview
House: A Few Bright Spots for Democrats, but Mostly Disappointment
Most Democrats were anticipating Hillary Clinton would have short coattails, but few anticipated that Donald Trump's coattails would end up helping many down-ballot Republicans win and even give…
David Wasserman
November 10, 2016
House Overview
House Democrats Are Getting More Diverse. Republicans Aren’t.
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on November 6, 2016 In August, Seattle Democrat Pramila Jayapal was the top vote getter in the all-party primary for a U.S. House seat left…
David Wasserman
November 7, 2016
House Overview
An Hour-by-Hour Election Night Guide to the House
As the 2016 election unmercifully approaches its end, Republican control of the House isn't in much doubt, but the final margin remains a mystery. The GOP holds a 247 to 188 seat majority, and he…
David Wasserman
November 7, 2016
House Overview
House: GOP Could Limit Losses as Clinton's Coattails Get Shorter
As the 2016 election approaches its unmerciful end, Republican control of the House isn't in much doubt, but the final margin is unknown. The Cook Political Report's outlook is a Democratic gain of…
David Wasserman
November 7, 2016
National Politics
Clinton’s Coalition: Hispanic Support Appears To Be Up, Black Turnout Down
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on October 28, 2016 The FBI may have injected last-minute uncertainty into the presidential race, but with eight days to go, the contours of…
David Wasserman
November 2, 2016
House Overview
House: GOP Majority Looks Assured, but Margin in Doubt
The presidential race may be inducing whiplash, but the House battleground remains relatively stable in the final week. We rate only 40 House races in Lean or Toss Up, and Democrats would need to…
David Wasserman
November 2, 2016
National Politics
You’ll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on October 25, 2016 It’s the morning after the election, and while half the country is waking up breathing a sigh of relief, another large…
David Wasserman
October 28, 2016
House Overview
House Alert: Democrats Poised to Pick Up 10 to 20 Seats
Less than two weeks from Election Day, Democrats are on track to pick up between 10 and 20 House seats, a slight uptick in their fortunes, but still well short of the 30 seats they need for the…
David Wasserman
October 27, 2016
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Trump's Toxicity Moves Comstock to Toss Up
Three weeks out, the House landscape has bifurcated: in well-educated suburban districts, Donald Trump's atrocious numbers - especially with women - means GOP candidates are fighting his toxicity as…
David Wasserman
October 19, 2016
House Overview
House Rating Changes: Issa Moves to Toss Up
Based on the latest public and private polling, we are revising our ratings in eight districts. Five of the changes favor Democrats. Of note, GOP Rep. Darrell Issa (CA-49), former chair of the House…
David Wasserman
October 14, 2016
House Overview
Is the House in Play? What We Know Now
Ever since last Friday's Access Hollywood bombshell, Speaker Paul Ryan has treated Trump's campaign as a sinking ship and has sounded an alarm to donors to shift resources towards saving the majority…
David Wasserman
October 14, 2016
New Jersey House
Rating Change: Garrett in Danger, NJ-05 Moves to Toss Up
Most Republicans have been polling surprisingly well in suburban House races in recent weeks. Then there's GOP Rep. Scott Garrett, the chair of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital…
David Wasserman
October 4, 2016
National Politics
‘Missing’ White Voters Could Elect Trump. But First They Need to Register.
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on September 29, 2016 Here’s a scary stat for Democrats: In 2012, President Obama won re-election by almost 5 million votes, but about 47…
David Wasserman
September 30, 2016
House Overview
House: Rating Changes in Eight Districts Favor Republicans
The narrowing gap in the presidential race has given Republican House strategists renewed optimism that Donald Trump may not be as big a drag on their candidates as they once feared. With a few…
David Wasserman
September 29, 2016
Florida House
Rating Change: FL-07 May Be 2016's Ultimate Bellwether House Race
If Democrats want to make a serious dent in Republicans' House majority, they'll need to break through in diversifying, suburban districts where Donald Trump is about as popular as snarled traffic.…
David Wasserman
September 29, 2016
California House
Rating Change: CA-24 Moves to Lean Democratic
Republicans haven't gained a House seat in California since 1998, and Santa Barbara and the Central Coast aren't exactly Donald Trump bastions. But a new poll conducted by the Tarrance Group for GOP…
David Wasserman
September 23, 2016
National Politics
How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on September 15, 2016 OK, before I say anything, a quick disclaimer: This piece is not a prediction. In fact, I’m a religious (maybe…
David Wasserman
September 16, 2016
New Hampshire House
NH-01 Moves to Lean Democratic After Guinta Survives Primary
Republicans' chances of holding New Hampshire's 1st CD would have probably improved slightly had GOP Rep. Frank Guinta lost his primary last night. Last spring, GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte and the…
David Wasserman
September 14, 2016
House Overview
Is There a Magic Number for Democrats to Take Back the House?
This article was originally published at nbc.com on September 8, 2016. As the presidential campaign enters its final stretch, many people have begun to ask me: "What size margin would Hillary…
David Wasserman
September 12, 2016
House Overview
September House Overview: The 37 Most Competitive Districts
Less than two months from Election Day, it's still not clear Donald Trump's nomination is dragging down more House Republicans than were already vulnerable. Democrats are about to launch on a…
David Wasserman
September 12, 2016
House Overview
House: Ratings Changes in Eight Districts
Overall, the House landscape has been remarkably stable compared to the past five election cycles, when plenty of races came "on to the board" in the final months. But based on recent developments,…
David Wasserman
September 9, 2016
House Overview
Fallout from Arizona and Florida's House Primaries
Each party got some good news and bad news in Tuesday's primaries. In Arizona's 1st District, Democrats got the opponent they wanted when baggage-laden Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu won the GOP…
David Wasserman
September 2, 2016
National Politics
Republicans’ Voter Registration Gains Probably Aren’t Gains At All
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on August 24, 2016 Republicans and the Trump campaign — facing severe polling, staff and advertising disadvantages — might be tempted to…
David Wasserman
August 26, 2016
House Overview
House: New Bottom Lines in 48 Open Seats
If Democrats want to make a play for the House majority, they would need to capitalize on all the Republican retirements they possibly can. The problem is, of the 46 open seats and two vacant seats,…
David Wasserman
August 26, 2016
House Overview
House: 2016 May Come Down to "Disaffected Democrats" and "Reluctant Republicans"
To survive a potentially large loss at the top of the ticket, many House Republicans will need to win over not just ardent supporters of Donald Trump - many of whom might have considered themselves…
David Wasserman
August 19, 2016
House Overview
No Evidence Trump is Dragging Down House Republicans (Yet)
On Wednesday, the DCCC released a memo arguing that "Donald Trump's likely defeat in many swing districts will be a devastating anchor that drags down House Republicans all across the country." To…
David Wasserman
August 12, 2016
Wyoming House
WY-AL: Liz Cheney on Track to Win Key Tuesday Primary
Former State Department official Liz Cheney started out the race for this open seat with plenty of skeptics after her disastrous and short-lived primary challenge to GOP Sen. Mike Enzi in 2013. But…
David Wasserman
August 12, 2016
Minnesota House
Primary Results Move MN-02 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic
House Republicans are happy that Speaker Paul Ryan won his Wisconsin primary with 84 percent of the vote, but Democrats are thrilled by last night's primary results next door in Minnesota. As…
David Wasserman
August 10, 2016
National Politics
The Political Process Isn’t Rigged — It Has Much Bigger Problems
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on August 4, 2016 All right, I need to vent. For months, I’ve watched Donald Trump decry as “rigged” everything from the Democratic primaries…
David Wasserman
August 5, 2016
Wisconsin House
WI-01 Primary: Why Paul Ryan is Not Eric Cantor
You know it's a strange year when the GOP nominee for president refuses to endorse his party's speaker of the House in his own primary. Just as it looked like it would escape notice, Speaker Paul…
David Wasserman
August 5, 2016
House Overview
2016 in a Nutshell: A Tale of Two Second Congressional Districts
Omaha, Nebraska is 1,665 miles from Bangor, Maine. Culturally, they're worlds apart: white-collar Omaha is becoming more cosmopolitan while northern Maine is well-known for its blue-collar…
David Wasserman
July 25, 2016
House Overview
House Risk Factors: Democrats Make Progress, But No Signs Yet of an Anti-GOP Wave
The chaos inside Quicken Loans Arena - from a quashed delegate rebellion to Melania Trump's recycled words and Ted Cruz's saboteur turn - have dominated coverage of Cleveland this week. But outside…
David Wasserman
July 22, 2016
National Politics
Trump’s Uphill Fight: The States Where The White Population Has Declined The Most
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on July 7, 2016 It could be said that the 2016 presidential election is once again a question of economics versus demographics. On one hand,…
David Wasserman
July 8, 2016
House Overview
Republicans' Support for Trump Depends on Their Vulnerability
A year ago, it was unthinkable that Republican members of Congress would ever support Donald Trump. Even in mid-February, eight months after he had launched his candidacy, not a single sitting member…
David Wasserman
July 8, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Primary Map Illustrates Clinton's Successes and Challenges
Picture a "typical" Bernie Sanders supporter. Before the primaries began in earnest, most people probably pictured a Birkenstock-wearing, Occupy protesting, anti-climate change activist who lives in…
David Wasserman
July 1, 2016
National Politics
Team Clinton's Puzzling Pennsylvania Bypass
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on June 22, 2016. Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls over Donald Trump, and has vastly more cash on hand. But when it comes…
David Wasserman
June 24, 2016
House Overview
The GOP’s House Majority Is Safe...Right?
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on June 21, 2016. Right now, most bettors foresee nine words that are the stuff of Republicans’ 2017 nightmares: “President Hillary Clinton…
David Wasserman
June 21, 2016
House Overview
GOP Incumbents in NY-01 and UT-04 Move to Toss Up
Amid Hillary Clinton's rising numbers, House Democrats have also benefited from a small string of favorable developments. This week's primaries in NV-03 and NV-04 couldn't have turned out much better…
David Wasserman
June 17, 2016
Florida House
FL-13: Jolly Reelection Run Makes Race More Competitive
This morning, Florida GOP Rep. David Jolly announced he is dropping his Senate bid to run for reelection to the House in FL-13, giving Republicans a credible path against former Gov. Charlie Crist,…
David Wasserman
June 17, 2016
House Overview
Primary Fallout: Knight Moves to Toss Up in CA-25, Blum to Lean Democratic in IA-01
Tuesday's congressional primaries didn't produce a lot of surprises but clarified matters in several of November's top races. If Democrats want to make House gains in the double digit range, they'll…
David Wasserman
June 10, 2016
Florida House
FL-23: A Reality Check on Wasserman Schultz's Primary
There's no doubt Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-23) has had a rocky tenure as DNC chair and that she's incurred the wrath of Bernie Sanders supporters who believe she's "rigged" the primaries in…
David Wasserman
June 3, 2016
National Politics
"Missing" White Voters Might Help Trump, But Less So Where He Needs It
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on June 2, 2016. A common refrain is that demographics will ultimately doom Donald Trump’s candidacy. His most reliable supporters have been…
David Wasserman
June 2, 2016
California House
What to Watch for in California's Top-Two Primary
On June 7, most eyes will be on California's Democratic presidential primary, where Hillary Clinton is set to clinch the delegates necessary for the nomination, regardless of the final margin against…
David Wasserman
May 27, 2016
National Politics
Why Pennsylvania Could Decide the 2016 Election
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on May 17, 2016. When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, two of only three states (along with Nevada…
David Wasserman
May 17, 2016
House Overview
House Democrats Struggling to Capitalize on Trump Opportunity
In December, after Donald Trump called for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country, NRCC Chair Rep. Greg Walden declared "This is not what we're about as a party, this is not what we're about…
David Wasserman
May 13, 2016
House Overview
Paul Ryan is in the Most Difficult Predicament of 2016
Speaker Paul Ryan's bombshell in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper that he is "just not ready" to support Donald Trump as his party's standard-bearer indicates he's more interested in protecting…
David Wasserman
May 5, 2016
National Politics
Republican Delegate Scorecard for April 29, 2016
Donald Trump's breathtaking romp through the Northeast corridor on Tuesday points to a fundamental shift in the GOP race. Once thought of as a candidate with a low ceiling, Trump won all but eight of…
David Wasserman
April 29, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Delegate Scorecard for April 29, 2016
The Democratic nomination race hasn't been competitive for over a month: Hillary Clinton has an insurmountable delegate lead. But what's remarkable is that the psychology of Democratic voters and…
David Wasserman
April 29, 2016
National Politics
The Four Corners of the GOP (Trump Owns Three of Them)
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on April 26, 2016. The Republican primary calendar could hardly have worked out better for Donald Trump. There is plenty of evidence that he’…
David Wasserman
April 26, 2016
House Overview
2016 Risk Factors for House GOP Incumbents
The likelihood of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the GOP's presidential nominee has given Democrats newfound optimism about their prospects for down-ballot success in 2016. A Hillary Clinton landslide…
David Wasserman
April 22, 2016
Minnesota House
Top Democratic Recruit Moves MN-03 to Lean Republican
On Saturday, Democrats claimed a late recruiting coup when state Sen. Terri Bonoff announced she will challenge four-term GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in suburban Minneapolis's 3rd CD. Paulsen's moderate…
David Wasserman
April 19, 2016
House Overview
House: New Bottom Lines in 45 Open Seats
It's not quite a mass exodus, but nearly four dozen members of the House are headed for the exits this year. Despite the GOP's historic majority, nearly two thirds are Republicans - including over a…
David Wasserman
April 16, 2016
House Overview
Top Democratic Recruits Prompt Ratings Changes in CO-03 and WI-08
House Democrats have suffered their share of recruitment setbacks this cycle, but they're ending this week on two high notes. In Green Bay, Wisconsin's 8th CD, they landed their top choice, Outagamie…
David Wasserman
April 8, 2016
National Politics
Republican Delegate Scorecard for April 8, 2016
Ted Cruz's win in Wisconsin on Tuesday lowered the odds that Donald Trump will capture the 1,237 he needs to win the GOP nomination without a contested convention. But Trump's fate won't be decided…
David Wasserman
April 8, 2016
National Politics
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
If Ted Cruz wins by a huge margin in Milwaukee’s suburbs, as expected tonight, he’ll get all three delegates from Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District, which cast 257,017 votes for Mitt Romney in…
David Wasserman
April 5, 2016
House Overview
April House Overview: New Bottom Lines in 35 Competitive Districts
The prospect of a GOP implosion at the top of the ticket suddenly has House Democrats energized about making a big dent in the GOP's 30-seat majority or even putting the majority in play. The only…
David Wasserman
April 1, 2016
National Politics
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
The Republican Party may be on the verge of an irrational break. Donald Trump continues to rack up delegates at a dizzying pace, but he looks less electable against Hillary Clinton by the day.…
David Wasserman
March 29, 2016
National Politics
GOP Delegate Scorecard for March 25, 2016
Donald Trump's dominance in Arizona on Tuesday moved him 58 delegates closer to capturing the 1,237 he needs to win the GOP nomination without a contested convention. But Ted Cruz's sweep of Utah's…
David Wasserman
March 25, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 25, 2016
After winning Arizona convincingly on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton maintains a virtually insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination. Despite her losses in Idaho and Utah,…
David Wasserman
March 25, 2016
House Overview
House Republicans Staring Into the Abyss: 10 Ratings Changes Favor Democrats
"They're about to detonate a nuclear bomb on themselves," said one savvy House Democratic strategist following Tuesday's primaries. "If Ted Cruz is your back up plan, you're screwed," the strategist…
David Wasserman
March 18, 2016
National Politics
Tuesday Results Make Clinton's Delegate Lead All But Insurmountable: Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 18, 2016
After sweeping all five contests in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton has built an even more insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders for the Democratic…
David Wasserman
March 18, 2016
National Politics
Republican Delegate Scorecard for March 11, 2016
Following his seven Super Tuesday victories and his wins in Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii, Donald Trump is still barely "on track" to win 1,237 delegates by June. He leads Ted…
David Wasserman
March 11, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 11, 2016
Even after Bernie Sanders won a surprising upset in Michigan, Hillary Clinton remains on track to win the Democratic nomination. Thanks to her overwhelming win in Mississippi, Clinton won 20 more…
David Wasserman
March 11, 2016
House Overview
House: Trump Phenomenon Not Hurting GOP Incumbents (Yet)
Many Republicans on Capitol Hill may be trembling at the prospect of sharing a November ballot with Donald Trump, but some may also be breathing a sigh of relief after Super Tuesday. The phenomenon…
David Wasserman
March 4, 2016
National Politics
Republican Delegate Scorecard for March 3, 2016
A candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland GOP convention to clinch the Republican nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has…
David Wasserman
March 3, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 3, 2016
Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the Democratic nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook…
David Wasserman
March 3, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 29, 2016
Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the…
David Wasserman
February 29, 2016
National Politics
Republican Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 24, 2016
Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Republican side, one candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to…
David Wasserman
February 24, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 23, 2016
Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the…
David Wasserman
February 23, 2016
National Politics
Republican Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 23, 2016
Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Republican side, one candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to…
David Wasserman
February 23, 2016
North Carolina House
Big Changes Ahead for North Carolina's Congressional Map
Earlier this month, the judicial branch threw out its third congressional map of the 2016 cycle when a three-judge federal panel ruled North Carolina's map an unconstitutional gerrymander. The timing…
David Wasserman
February 19, 2016
House Overview
The "Other" Primaries: House Incumbents Vulnerable to Intra-Party Challenges
Amid the chaos of the presidential race, it's easy to forget there are other notable primaries brewing in 2016. Down-ballot, pervasive voter discontent continues to embolden credible primary…
David Wasserman
February 19, 2016
National Politics
Republican Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 12, 2016
Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Republican side, one candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to…
David Wasserman
February 12, 2016
National Politics
Democratic Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 12, 2016
Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the…
David Wasserman
February 12, 2016
House Overview
House FEC Report: Trump and Cruz Not Yet a Windfall for Democrats
It's no secret that House Democrats, and most Democratic strategists in general, would love nothing more than for Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to win the GOP presidential nomination. If either were to…
David Wasserman
February 5, 2016
Wisconsin House
Ribble Retirement Moves WI-08 to Lean Republican
On Saturday, Wisconsin Rep. Reid Ribble announced he will retire in 2016, becoming the tenth member of the GOP's class of 2010 to retire or seek other office this cycle. His retirement also creates…
David Wasserman
February 1, 2016
National Politics
Bernie-Mania's Barrier: Democratic Delegate Math
In the wake of new Iowa and New Hampshire polls showing Bernie Sanders gaining, some say it's time for Hillary Clinton to hit the panic button. "Clinton should ABSOLUTELY be nervous about the state…
David Wasserman
January 21, 2016
Virginia House
Rigell to Retire, But VA-02 May Be Beyond Democrats' Reach
This afternoon, GOP Rep. Scott Rigell announced he will retire from his Virginia Beach-based seat after three terms in the House. The wealthy auto dealer has been one of the more bipartisan members…
David Wasserman
January 14, 2016
National Politics
Introducing: The Cook 2016 GOP Delegate Scorecard
The race for the Republican nomination has featured more plot twists and made-for-TV melodrama than the Bachelor. In fact, the polling favorite is a reality TV star whose platform mainly consists of…
David Wasserman
January 13, 2016
Virginia House
New Virginia Map Moves VA-04 to Lean Democratic
Yesterday, a federal court judge ordered a new Virginia congressional map for use in this year's election, converting GOP Rep. Randy Forbes' 4th District into a safe Democratic seat. The new map (…
David Wasserman
January 8, 2016
New York House
Israel Retirement Moves NY-03 to Toss Up
In both the 2012 and 2014 cycles, Rep. Steve Israel dutifully and shrewdly headed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Today, he announced he will retire in 2016 in part to focus on…
David Wasserman
January 5, 2016
New York House
Hanna Retirement Moves NY-22 to Toss Up
Over the weekend, New York GOP Rep. Richard Hanna announced he would not seek a fourth term in his swing seat covering Binghamton and Utica. Hanna, a wealthy construction businessman, is the most…
David Wasserman
December 21, 2015
House Overview
Bottom Lines: Republican Open Seats
Believe it or not, there are more open seats than just the White House in 2016. As of today, there are 30 House members either retiring or running for higher office, as well as one vacancy. Of those…
David Wasserman
December 18, 2015
Illinois House
IL-01: Rush May Get Kicked Off Ballot
Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush has easily won reelection in a heavily African-American Chicago seat for 24 years, but his fight for a 13th term may be decided in a courtroom rather than at the polls. It'…
David Wasserman
December 11, 2015
House Overview
House: Could Trump Lead to Apocalypse for Republicans?
To most Republican strategists, there's no bigger nightmare than Donald Trump as the GOP's presidential nominee in 2016. This week, just about every Democrat running for president, Senate, House, and…
David Wasserman
December 11, 2015
National Politics
Introducing the 2016 Demographic Swing-O-Matic
Republicans contend that the 2016 election will be about Americans’ desire for change after eight years of a Democratic president. Democrats hope the election will tell a different story of change: a…
David Wasserman
December 8, 2015
Florida House
New Florida Map Prompts Ratings Changes
On Wednesday, the Florida Supreme Court signed off on a new congressional map, and the state's mid-decade game of musical chairs could leave at least three incumbents without a seat. The new map…
David Wasserman
December 4, 2015
House Overview
Bottom Lines: Democratic Open Seats
Retirement season is upon the House, and so far the numbers are pretty even: there are 13 Democratic open seats and 15 GOP open seats, although there could be 10-20 more before the cycle is over. The…
David Wasserman
November 20, 2015
Kansas House
Kansas: 2016 House Baselines
Kansas was supposed to be the exception to the 2014 GOP wave thanks to GOP Gov. Sam Brownback's unpopularity, but Democrats high hopes for gains were dashed across the board. Instead, Brownback won…
David Wasserman
November 13, 2015
Kentucky House
Kentucky: 2016 House Baselines
Like a craft bourbon, Kentucky's Democrats seem to have distilled to just a few urban centers, Louisville and Lexington, while their support everywhere else in the state seems to have evaporated.…
David Wasserman
November 13, 2015
House Overview
Democratic Candidates Worth Watching in 2016
Last week, while GOP Rep. Paul Ryan effectively wrapped up the votes to be speaker, Democrats were busy convening and training over 40 candidates with an eye towards winning back GOP-held seats.…
David Wasserman
October 30, 2015
House Overview
Updated House GOP Factions Chart
Yesterday, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan all but wrapped up the necessary support to succeed outgoing Speaker John Boehner. But in the wake of the GOP's leadership drama, it's worth taking a fresh look at…
David Wasserman
October 23, 2015
Iowa House
Iowa: 2016 House Baselines
Even in the 2010 GOP wave, Democrats managed to hold onto three of Iowa's five House seats. But in 2014, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley's Senate campaign tanked and the GOP's sweep even cost Democrats…
David Wasserman
October 16, 2015
House Overview
House Reality Check: Can Democrats Capitalize on GOP's Crisis?
Up until two weeks ago, the drama and larger-than-life personalities of the 2016 presidential race rendered the House an afterthought. It took a looming government funding/debt ceiling showdown and…
David Wasserman
October 9, 2015
Indiana House
Indiana: 2016 House Baselines
The dominoes are falling in Indiana in 2016: thanks to the decisions of GOP Reps. Marlin Stutzman (IN-03) and Todd Young (IN-09) to run for an open Senate seat, there are spirited Republican…
David Wasserman
September 18, 2015
Michigan House
MI-01 Still Leans Republican after Benishek Retirement
Today, Michigan GOP Rep. Dan Benishek announced he will retire after three terms. Although Democrats will cheer the news, it's not clear that Benishek's retirement improves their prospect of picking…
David Wasserman
September 15, 2015
Illinois House
Illinois: 2016 House Baselines
When Illinois Democrats drew their dream map in 2012, they tried to carve themselves 13 of the state's 18 seats. But after the 2014 GOP wave, they only hold ten. Republican Reps. Robert Dold (IL-10)…
David Wasserman
September 11, 2015
Minnesota House
Kline Retirement Moves MN-02 to Toss Up
Today, GOP Rep. John Kline (MN-02) announced that he would retire after seven terms in 2016. Kline's military background and chairmanship of the House Education and the Workforce Committee helped him…
David Wasserman
September 3, 2015
House Overview
New Bottom Lines for Competitive House Races
AZ-01: OPEN (Kirkpatrick) (D) - Northeast: Flagstaff, Navajo Nation, Casa GrandeToss Up. Kirkpatrick's decision to run for Senate makes this northern Arizona seat one of Republicans' best pickup…
David Wasserman
August 28, 2015
House Overview
15 Months Out, Little Change
House Republicans are hurtling towards the fall with lots of concerns: how to reconcile a deadline to fund the government with conservatives' demands to defund Planned Parenthood, navigating highway…
David Wasserman
August 28, 2015
Virginia House
Democrats a Step Closer to Gaining Virginia House Seat
House Democrats privately admit they don't have much hope of gaining the House back in 2016, but they are eager to engage strategists and donors in the long game: challenge GOP-drawn maps in court,…
David Wasserman
August 21, 2015
Georgia House
Georgia: 2016 House Baselines
Republicans strengthened their grip in Georgia in 2014 when they finally defeated the last white House Democrat in the Deep South, Rep. John Barrow. Between a competitive Senate race and three open…
David Wasserman
August 14, 2015
Hawaii House
Hawaii: 2016 House Baselines
For years, Sen. Daniel Inouye's political organization dominated Hawaii politics, anointing loyalists up and down the ballot. But Inouye's passing in 2012 prompted a multi-year game of musical chairs…
David Wasserman
August 14, 2015
Idaho House
Idaho: 2016 House Baselines
Idaho's two members are both Republicans, but that's about all they have in common. Still, both seem to have entrenched themselves after a wild last few years. Rep. Raul Labrador (ID-01) riles the…
David Wasserman
August 14, 2015
Florida House
Florida Draft Remap Would Net Democrats a Seat
This week, Republicans in the Florida Senate unveiled a draft of a new congressional map designed to comply with the Florida Supreme Court's ruling last month striking down the state's lines. As…
David Wasserman
August 7, 2015
New Jersey House
NJ-05: Garrett Puts Himself at Risk
For over a decade, Democrats have fumed that GOP Rep. Scott Garrett (NJ-05) is way too conservative for the upscale, socially moderate Bergen County voters who dominate his district. But, voters have…
David Wasserman
July 31, 2015
House Overview
House GOP Factions: The Difference Two Years Makes
Nearly two years ago, House Speaker John Boehner faced an insurrection from the right flank of his party that forced a government shutdown and nearly cost him his job. This year, the governing…
David Wasserman
July 24, 2015
National Politics
Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don't Guarantee a Democratic White House
History shows it's extremely difficult for a presidential candidate to succeed a two-term president of the same party, especially one with approval ratings as middling as President Obama's. The "time…
David Wasserman
July 19, 2015
Florida House
Florida Map Thrown Out: Graham, Jolly in Danger
For the last four years, Democrats in DC and Florida have been hoping and praying for the day when courts would strike down a Republican gerrymander. And yet now that the Florida Supreme Court has…
David Wasserman
July 15, 2015
National Politics
2016 Voters, by the Numbers
Part of what makes the 2016 presidential race so much fun is that two very astute observers looking at it through two different lenses can come up with two totally different predictions about which…
David Wasserman
July 14, 2015
National Politics
African American Voters: The Overlooked Key To 2016
Many analysts have devoted endless hours to pondering the Republican Party's woes with Latino voters and prescriptions for how the party can fix them in time for 2016. There's little doubt that the…
David Wasserman
July 10, 2015
House Overview
Ratings Changes in CO-06 and NV-03
Nevada GOP Rep. Joe Heck's decision to run for Senate is welcome news for Senate Republicans, but it's also good news for House Democrats. The newly open 3rd District, based in Henderson and…
David Wasserman
July 7, 2015
House Overview
Mapping Out the House Democratic Caucus
With just 188 seats, House Democrats may be deep in the minority. However, that doesn't make them insignificant. In the last Congress, Republican leaders struggled to quell internal revolts and…
David Wasserman
July 7, 2015
Arizona House
Supreme Court Upholds Arizona Map: What it Means
In a 5-4 ruling handed down this morning, the Supreme Court rejected a challenge to Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission and quashed the specter of partisan, mid-decade redistricting in…
David Wasserman
June 29, 2015
Florida House
Florida: 2016 House Baselines
The Sunshine State is poised to play a more pivotal role in national politics next year than at any time since the days of "hanging chads" in 2000. Not only has Florida spawned two front-running…
David Wasserman
June 26, 2015
Virginia House
Virginia's Map Thrown Out: What's Next?
Last Friday, a three-judge federal panel reaffirmed an October ruling striking down Virginia's congressional map on the grounds that the African-American 3rd District amounts to an unconstitutional…
David Wasserman
June 12, 2015
Connecticut House
Connecticut: 2016 House Baselines
Democrats' dominance in Connecticut's House delegation was unchanged by the GOP wave of 2014. If there is still a "swing" seat in the state, it's the northwestern 5th CD held by sophomore Democratic…
David Wasserman
June 5, 2015
Colorado House
Colorado: 2016 House Baselines
Republicans have struggled to break through at the presidential and gubernatorial levels in Colorado, but finally won a Senate seat last year and have held a steady 4-3 lead in the House delegation…
David Wasserman
June 4, 2015
Arizona House
Kirkpatrick Senate Bid Moves AZ-01 to Toss Up
Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's surprise decision to run for Senate gives Democrats a credible challenger to GOP Sen. John McCain in 2016, but it also catapults her northern Arizona seat to the top…
David Wasserman
May 26, 2015
California House
Southern California: 2016 House Baselines
The 2014 GOP wave stopped short of the West Coast. But if that's not disappointing enough for Golden State Republicans, they could be in an even bigger hole if the Supreme Court invalidates the work…
David Wasserman
May 22, 2015
Mississippi House
MS-01: Kelly Virtually Assured of Runoff Victory
Tuesday's 13-candidate, nonpartisan special election to replace the late GOP Rep. Alan Nunnelee couldn't have gone better for Republican Trent Kelly, a regional prosecutor and Iraq veteran. Kelly…
David Wasserman
May 15, 2015
California House
Northern California: 2016 House Baselines
The 2014 GOP wave stopped short of the West Coast. But if that's not disappointing enough for Golden State Republicans, they could be in an even bigger hole if the Supreme Court invalidates the work…
David Wasserman
May 15, 2015
Mississippi House
Uncertainty Reigns as MS-01 Special Approaches
With less than two weeks to go until the May 12 special election , the free-for-all to fill the seat of late GOP Rep. Alan Nunnelee is heating up. Just about the only certainties here are that the…
David Wasserman
May 1, 2015
House Overview
House: First Look at 2016's Open Seats
It's time to face it: congressional elections have moved into an era when there are more competitive primaries than general elections. Nowhere has this been on display more than in open seats, which…
David Wasserman
April 24, 2015
House Overview
House: First Look at 2016's Most Competitive Races
How successful will Democrats be in convincing potential recruits that a ballot led by Hillary Clinton in 2016 presents their best opportunity for a promotion? Given their historic low point and…
David Wasserman
April 17, 2015
House Overview
2016 House: Defining the Battleground
Now that the 2016 presidential race has begun in earnest, many hopefuls for House seats will struggle for attention and money, particularly considering the chamber has mostly become a foregone…
David Wasserman
April 10, 2015
California House
Capps Retirement: CA-24 Stays in Likely Democratic Column
This afternoon, Santa Barbara Democratic Rep. Lois Capps announced she would retire at the end of her current term. This isn't a surprise, as her daughter, Democratic communications strategist Laura…
David Wasserman
April 8, 2015
House Overview
House Special Election Updates: IL-18, MS-01 and NY-11
House Republicans are down three members from their election night total of 247 seats, but they are virtually certain to retain all three seats in special elections over the next four months. In…
David Wasserman
April 3, 2015
Illinois House
Duckworth Senate Run: IL-08 Remains Solid Democratic
This morning, Illinois Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth announced she will challenge GOP Sen. Mark Kirk in 2016. Although Illinois's Senate race is likely to be highly competitive, Democrats are in a…
David Wasserman
March 30, 2015
California House
California: Could SCOTUS Ruling Be a Democratic Bonanza?
Could the Supreme Court help House Democrats hit the jackpot in California next year? The prospect of a Golden State mid-decade redistricting, dependent on the outcome of a much-watched Arizona case…
David Wasserman
March 27, 2015
Florida House
Murphy Senate Run Moves FL-18 to Toss Up
This morning, sophomore Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18) announced he would run for Senate in 2016, giving Democrats a credible candidate for GOP Sen. Marco Rubio's seat. But Democrats will be…
David Wasserman
March 23, 2015
Arizona House
Arizona: How the GOP Could Redraw the Lines
As we noted several weeks ago, Arizona was a rare bright spot for Democrats in the 2012 round of redistricting: under a new map, they captured five of the state's nine districts that year and managed…
David Wasserman
March 20, 2015
Illinois House
Schock Resignation: IL-18 Remains Solid Republican
Illinois GOP Rep. Aaron Schock announced today that he would resign effective March 31 amid mounting questions about his improper use of campaign and official funds. Earlier this month, Schock repaid…
David Wasserman
March 17, 2015
Arkansas House
Arkansas: 2016 House Baselines
Just five years ago, Democrats held Arkansas's governorship, both its Senate seats, and three out of its four House seats. Today, Republicans hold all of these offices - a total shutout. In 2014,…
David Wasserman
March 13, 2015
Arizona House
Arizona: 2016 House Baselines
Most people don't think things could get any worse for House Democrats. But a Supreme Court case expected to be decided by June could actually cost Democrats two more seats in Arizona, putting them…
David Wasserman
February 27, 2015
Alabama House
Alabama: 2016 House Baselines
Alabama may be in the throes of a major cultural fight over State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore's refusal to abide by a federal court's ruling legalizing same sex marriage. But it's not a…
David Wasserman
February 20, 2015
Mississippi House
MS-01: Republicans Near Lock to Hold Nunnelee Seat in Special Election
GOP Rep. Alan Nunnelee's death last week following a battle with brain cancer means there will be a special election in northern Mississippi's 1st CD for the second time in seven years. In 2008, when…
David Wasserman
February 13, 2015
House Overview
2016 Baseline Analysis for At-Large States
All seven states with only one House seat have experienced at least one turbulent, competitive House race in the past decade. That's surprising, given that none of these small states - Alaska,…
David Wasserman
January 30, 2015
House Overview
Three Northeast GOP Open Seats Kick Off 2015
For both parties, the new year is a time to reflect and regroup. For Republicans and NRCC Chair Rep. Greg Walden, that means figuring out how to stay the course and preserve 2014 gains during a more…
David Wasserman
January 16, 2015
House Overview
Quantifying the 2014 House GOP "Wave"
Now that virtually all votes have been counted, there are countless ways to dissect what happened. And while Republicans are almost certain to wind up with an historic majority of 247 seats (pending…
David Wasserman
December 5, 2014
House Overview
Quantifying the 2014 House GOP "Wave"
Now that virtually all votes have been counted, there are countless ways to dissect what happened. And while Republicans are almost certain to wind up with an historic majority of 247 seats (pending…
David Wasserman
December 5, 2014
House Overview
House Over-Performers vs. Over-Achievers
Republicans absolutely cleaned up on Election Day a month ago. But, the swing from one election to the next is never uniform. Some Republicans did even better than could have been anticipated and "…
David Wasserman
December 5, 2014
Tennessee House
Tennessee: 2014 House Baselines
Republicans' 2012 redistricting map effectively packed Democrats into just two districts, the Nashville-based 5th and the Memphis-based 9th, and the GOP's 7-2 edge looks solid for the foreseeable…
David Wasserman
December 4, 2014
Louisiana House
Louisiana: House Runoffs Look Safe for GOP
There are only two more House races to be held in 2014, and both are Louisiana runoffs taking place in safely GOP open seats. Barring a huge upset, these wins will put Republicans at 247 seats next…
David Wasserman
November 21, 2014
House Overview
House: Late Ballots Cut Democrats' Losses
For House Democrats, Election Night was something close to a nightmare. But ever since then, Democrats have received a steady stream of consolation prizes. A thin silver lining though it might be,…
David Wasserman
November 14, 2014
House Overview
First Impressions: Historic GOP House Majority
It's hard to overstate House Democrats' bad night. By all measures, Republicans enjoyed an historic night, exceeding pre-election expectations across the country. There are fewer than ten races where…
David Wasserman
November 5, 2014
House Overview
Final Preview: 7 Things to Watch in the House
For political junkies fraught with anticipation, it's Christmas Eve. Tomorrow, most will be glued to to the question of whether Republicans take back the Senate. But, there are some unresolved…
David Wasserman
November 3, 2014
House Overview
Final House Independent Expenditure Tracker
Just how narrow was the 2014 House playing field? Our final ratings chart lists just 39 seats as competitive, compared to 57 at this point in 2012 and 100 at this point in 2010. But what's even more…
David Wasserman
November 3, 2014
House
House: Double-Digit GOP Gains Now Possible
With less than a week to go, the momentum is clearly with Republicans, and House Democrats are bracing for the possibility that Election Night could be uglier than they originally thought. The DCCC…
David Wasserman
October 29, 2014
House
Final Rundown: Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents
"Double Down" is the name of a best-selling book about the 2012 election, not to mention a very caloric sandwich at KFC, but the phrase applies just as well to House Democrats in 2014. Everyone knows…
David Wasserman
October 24, 2014
House
House Ratings Update: Late-Breaking Sleepers or Manufactured Hype?
Up until last week, Massachusetts's open 6th CD and New Jersey's open 3rd CD were the most-watched races in their respective states. But now that it's October and everyone is looking for potential…
David Wasserman
October 22, 2014
House Overview
House Overview: GOP on Track to Gain 4 to 10 Seats
It's mid-October, so cue the craziness: if you believed every one of the hundreds of new polls or ad buys floating around, you might think Rep. Bill Keating (MA-09) is losing reelection in a heavily…
David Wasserman
October 17, 2014
South Carolina House
South Carolina: 2014 House Baselines
When South Carolina gained a seat in 2012 reapportionment, Republicans simply added a new GOP-leaning seat in the fast-growing Myrtle Beach area, and their 6-1 edge looks durable. After last year's…
David Wasserman
April 18, 2014
Rhode Island House
Rhode Island: 2014 House Baselines
With all eyes on a fiercely contested governor's race, Rhode Island's House delegation looks pretty well settled. Last cycle, Republicans threw everything they had at Democratic Rep. David Cicilline…
David Wasserman
April 18, 2014
National
Playing the Name Game for 2016
With all eyes on a fiercely contested governor's race, Rhode Island's House delegation looks pretty well settled. Last cycle, Republicans threw everything they had at Democratic Rep. David Cicilline…
David Wasserman
April 18, 2014
National
On Points: Anti-Obamacare Ads Keep on Rolling
Number of new anti-“Obamacare” campaign or issue commercials launched since the first open enrollment window closed on March 31: 32. Number of pro-Affordable Care Act campaign or issue ads launched…
David Wasserman
April 15, 2014
Oklahoma House
A Tough Year for Democrats
There has been a growing sense in recent weeks that the odds of Republicans picking up a Senate majority in November are not only growing, they may well have tipped over to better than 50-50. The…
David Wasserman
March 27, 2014