Could the Supreme Court help House Democrats hit the jackpot in California next year? The prospect of a Golden State mid-decade redistricting, dependent on the outcome of a much-watched Arizona case, makes Republicans nervous. However, an exhaustive mapping simulation reveals a Democratic gold rush of seats is extremely unlikely. On March 3, the Supreme Court heard Arizona Republicans' challenge to the constitutionality of independent redistricting commissions, and a ruling is expected by summer. Arizona Republicans hope the Supreme Court strikes down their state's commission, which in 2012 drew what they saw as a pro-Democratic gerrymander. As we detailed last week, a GOP redraw in Arizona could easily cost House Democrats two seats next year. However, other Republicans worry that if the Supreme Court strikes down independent commissions and their maps altogether, Democrats could retaliate by scrapping California's current commission map and redrawing the Golden State's 53 districts to expand on their current 39-14 seat advantage. Democrats control California's governorship and both houses of the legislature, as Republicans do in Arizona. Count us skeptical, for three reasons. First, even if the
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