Now that the 2016 presidential race has begun in earnest, many hopefuls for House seats will struggle for attention and money, particularly considering the chamber has mostly become a foregone conclusion. Republicans have achieved their largest majority in 86 years, and now it's up to Democrats to prove that they aren't simply done for the decade. The good news for House Democrats is that they virtually have nowhere to go but up. But how far up can they realistically hope to climb? Last cycle, the single biggest driver of GOP congressional gains wasn't the health care bill, Ebola, or ISIS. It was the transition from a presidential to midterm electorate, the staggering drop-off in participation of young and minority voters, and a dramatic shift in the composition of the electorate to white and older voters who have become cornerstones of the Republican base. Both parties (and many pundits) failed to fully anticipate the severity of this shift. As a result, both party committees ended up spending tens of millions on races that turned into double digit Republican blowouts (IL-12, IA-03,

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