Ever since last Friday's Access Hollywood bombshell, Speaker Paul Ryan has treated Trump's campaign as a sinking ship and has sounded an alarm to donors to shift resources towards saving the majority. Meanwhile, we have been inundated with questions about whether the majority is now in play. We've long been skeptical, but purposefully waited a few days to gather as much fresh data as possible before offering our view. A week later, Donald Trump's behavior towards women continues to consume the news. But there's little evidence of a wholesale shift in the House landscape. The prospect that GOP voters staying home clearly increases the party's downside risk, but neither side's polling suggests the "bottom dropping out" for congressional Republicans. Democrats need a 30 seat gain to retake the House, but that's very difficult to do when there are only 37 competitive races -- including six already held by Democrats. Today, even if they won all 6 seats in Lean Democratic and all 18 seats in Toss Up, they would still need to win 11 of 13 races in Lean Republican

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