Arizona is next in our redistricting series. Throughout 2021, we'll delve into the states in detail, spotlighting a different state's redistricting outlook each week. Make sure to read our full redistricting outlook.
Current Delegation: 5D, 4R 2022 Seats: 9 (No change) Redistricting Control: Bipartisan/independent commission
Current Congressional MapMap credit: Dave's Redistricting App
Phoenix Inset
Map credit: Dave's Redistricting App
District-Level Population Analysis Redistricting OutlookThere aren't too many closely divided states that employ independent redistricting commissions. But Arizona and Michigan are the high-stakes exceptions. And unlike in most states, where partisans end up maximizing safe seats and taking competitive ones off the table, Arizona is a rare state where competitiveness is written into the commission's criteria - potentially putting it at the epicenter of the 2022 battle for House control.
For the first decade since the 1950s, Arizona isn't gaining any new seats - a mild surprise when census results arrived. But the Independent Redistricting Commission is poised to drastically redraw the map anyway, posing risks to incumbents in both parties.
Republicans are zeroing in
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